tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Explor Res Hypothesis Med
. 2020 Jul 8;1-10.
doi: 10.14218/ERHM.2020.00045.
Associations of Stay-at-Home Order and Face-Masking Recommendation with Trends in Daily New Cases and Deaths of Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 in the United States
Jie Xu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Sabiha Hussain[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Guanzhu Lu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Kai Zheng[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Shi Wei[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Wei Bao[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Lanjing Zhang[SUP] 6 7 8 9 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background and objectives: Public health interventions have reduced coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission in several countries, but their impacts on COVID-19 epidemics in the USA are unclear. We examined associations of stay-at-home order (SAHO) and face-masking recommendation with COVID-19 epidemics in the USA.
Methods: In this quasi-experimental interrupted time-series study, we modeled temporal trends in daily new cases and deaths of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, and COVID-19 time-varying reproduction numbers in the USA between March 1 and April 20, 2020. In addition, we conducted simulation analyses.
Results: The number of residents under SAHO increased since March 19 and plateaued at 290,829,980 (88.6% of the U.S. population) on April 7. Trends in COVID-19 time-varying reproduction numbers peaked on March 23, further reduced on April 3, and fell below/around 1.0 on April 13. Early-implementation and early-lift of SAHO would reduce and increase COVID-19 epidemics, respectively. Multivariable piecewise log-linear regression revealed the states' neighboring relationship with New York was linked to COVID-19 daily new cases and deaths. There were two turning points in daily new-case trend, being March 28 (slope-changes = -0.09) and April 3 (slope-changes = -0.09), which appeared to be associated with implementation of SAHO on March 28 (affecting 48.5% of the US population in 22 states and District of Columbia), and face-masking recommendation on April 3, respectively. There were also two turning points in daily new-death trend, being April 9 (slope-changes = -0.06) and April 19 (slope-changes = -0.90).
Conclusions: We identified two turning points of COVID-19 daily new cases or deaths in the USA, which seem to be linked to implementation of SAHO and the Center for Disease Control's face-masking recommendation.
Keywords: COVID; Coronavirus disease 2019; Face-masking; Incidence; Policy; Trend.
. 2020 Jul 8;1-10.
doi: 10.14218/ERHM.2020.00045.
Associations of Stay-at-Home Order and Face-Masking Recommendation with Trends in Daily New Cases and Deaths of Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 in the United States
Jie Xu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Sabiha Hussain[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Guanzhu Lu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Kai Zheng[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Shi Wei[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Wei Bao[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Lanjing Zhang[SUP] 6 7 8 9 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32734759
- PMCID: PMC7361445
- DOI: 10.14218/ERHM.2020.00045
Abstract
Background and objectives: Public health interventions have reduced coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission in several countries, but their impacts on COVID-19 epidemics in the USA are unclear. We examined associations of stay-at-home order (SAHO) and face-masking recommendation with COVID-19 epidemics in the USA.
Methods: In this quasi-experimental interrupted time-series study, we modeled temporal trends in daily new cases and deaths of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, and COVID-19 time-varying reproduction numbers in the USA between March 1 and April 20, 2020. In addition, we conducted simulation analyses.
Results: The number of residents under SAHO increased since March 19 and plateaued at 290,829,980 (88.6% of the U.S. population) on April 7. Trends in COVID-19 time-varying reproduction numbers peaked on March 23, further reduced on April 3, and fell below/around 1.0 on April 13. Early-implementation and early-lift of SAHO would reduce and increase COVID-19 epidemics, respectively. Multivariable piecewise log-linear regression revealed the states' neighboring relationship with New York was linked to COVID-19 daily new cases and deaths. There were two turning points in daily new-case trend, being March 28 (slope-changes = -0.09) and April 3 (slope-changes = -0.09), which appeared to be associated with implementation of SAHO on March 28 (affecting 48.5% of the US population in 22 states and District of Columbia), and face-masking recommendation on April 3, respectively. There were also two turning points in daily new-death trend, being April 9 (slope-changes = -0.06) and April 19 (slope-changes = -0.90).
Conclusions: We identified two turning points of COVID-19 daily new cases or deaths in the USA, which seem to be linked to implementation of SAHO and the Center for Disease Control's face-masking recommendation.
Keywords: COVID; Coronavirus disease 2019; Face-masking; Incidence; Policy; Trend.