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Expert - Ten times more infected in Germany

Gert van der Hoek

In Memoriam - Editor, Senior Moderator
SWINE FLU

Expert - Ten times more infected in Germany

(0)
17. June 2009,

Pig flu is rife in Germany continues: The problem here is that because of the mild symptoms the infected are unaware that they have the virus. The virologist Alexander Kekulé thus warns against a high number of sick persons and calls for much tougher measures in the fight against the flu.


In the opinion of Prof. Alexander Kekulé virologist there have been at least ten times more German with flu infects pigs as reported. Due to the often low symptoms of the disease were more stringent checks at airports is necessary, said the researchers at the University of Halle-Wittenberg in an interview with Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.

How high would you rate the number of unreported cases of people infected with swine flu, and what does this mean?

Kekulé: "The new virus causes infection, it often appears without symptoms, with minimal symptoms such as headache or sore throat and flu for atypical symptoms, such as discomfort in the gastrointestinal area. It is therefore in my opinion, not rely on any entrant flu with fever and cough to be recognized. Such people can spread the virus.

I have therefore right at the beginning of the epidemic a few weeks ago strongly recommended that entrants from risk areas at the airports on the virus to be tested. The authorities have complied with this recommendation is not followed. I assume that the actual number of infected people in Germany at least ten times the reported cases are just under 200. "


Kekulé: "The virus has not become dangerous. The prophecies of the WHO and some of my colleagues that there is a great danger that the new H1N1 virus may change with the much more dangerous H5N1 bird flu virus genetic mix, I believe to be excessive. Such a "lethal marriage" of the two viruses is extremely unlikely.

It is possible, however, that the new virus during the coming months, more infectious, that is, it can then more easily from human to human transfer. As a worst-case scenario, we must also reckon that the new virus resistant to one or more virus means (Tamiflu, Relenza) is. "

What should individuals do to spread the virus to slow?

Kekulé: "Until a vaccine is, the people must help themselves. At the moment the most important thing is that entrants from North and Central America after their return about five days staying at home if possible and a few contacts. So you should have no major events, children should not attend school or go to kindergarten.

Who comes from these areas or contact with arrivals from there and had to feel sick, should immediately consult a doctor. For cough call, so that in practice, no patients are infected. That is when coughing and sneezing a handkerchief in front of the mouth holds, it should now be self-evident. "

http://www.welt.de/wissenschaft/med...e-Zehnmal-mehr-Infizierte-in-Deutschland.html
 
Re: Expert - Ten times more infected in Germany

The above estimate is a GROSS underestimate. Those at airports may be greater than 10X higher, but the more than 90% of infections which arrive at airports spread the H1N1 AFTER they LEAVE the airport, and the testing in the community, where H1N1 is actively spreading, is abysmal.

Theses countries focus resources at airports and therefore miss the vast majority of cases, which are silently spreading in the community.

The surveillance efforts in most countries outside of North America are not testing the vast majority of infected cases.
 
Re: Expert - Ten times more infected in Germany

I'm surprised that he seems to think he can still control it now.
That didn't work in other countries.
How much time do we need ?
Apparantly Germany is hoping to be one of the first
countries to have vaccine...
...so they are struggling for weeks.
But is there a real chance ?
And why ? When it's so mild as Kekule said, then we should
welcome it and gain immunity the natural way.
(which seems to be better anyway)

It's also a chance to defeat evil seasonal H1N1 and H3N2

we don't want these to survive in Germany and then come out again
some years later, while the world is watching ?!?
 
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