tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2014 Jun 19;11(6):6388-99. doi: 10.3390/ijerph110606388.
Evaluating the Impact of Environmental Temperature on Global Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 Outbreaks in Domestic Poultry.
Zhang Z1, Chen D2, Chen Y3, Wang B4, Hu Y5, Gao J6, Sun L7, Li R8, Xiong C9.
Author information
Abstract
The emergence and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A virus subtype H5N1 in Asia, Europe and Africa has had an enormously socioeconomic impact and presents an important threat to human health because of its efficient animal-to-human transmission. Many factors contribute to the occurrence and transmission of HPAI H5N1 virus, but the role of environmental temperature remains poorly understood. Based on an approach of integrating a Bayesian Cox proportional hazards model and a Besag-York-Molli? (BYM) model, we examined the specific impact of environmental temperature on HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry around the globe during the period from 1 December 2003 to 31 December 2009. The results showed that higher environmental temperature was a significant risk factor for earlier occurrence of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry, especially for a temperature of 25 ?C. Its impact varied with epidemic waves (EWs), and the magnitude of the impact tended to increase over EWs.
PMID:
24950061
[PubMed - in process]
Free full text
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24950061
Evaluating the Impact of Environmental Temperature on Global Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 Outbreaks in Domestic Poultry.
Zhang Z1, Chen D2, Chen Y3, Wang B4, Hu Y5, Gao J6, Sun L7, Li R8, Xiong C9.
Author information
Abstract
The emergence and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A virus subtype H5N1 in Asia, Europe and Africa has had an enormously socioeconomic impact and presents an important threat to human health because of its efficient animal-to-human transmission. Many factors contribute to the occurrence and transmission of HPAI H5N1 virus, but the role of environmental temperature remains poorly understood. Based on an approach of integrating a Bayesian Cox proportional hazards model and a Besag-York-Molli? (BYM) model, we examined the specific impact of environmental temperature on HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry around the globe during the period from 1 December 2003 to 31 December 2009. The results showed that higher environmental temperature was a significant risk factor for earlier occurrence of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry, especially for a temperature of 25 ?C. Its impact varied with epidemic waves (EWs), and the magnitude of the impact tended to increase over EWs.
PMID:
24950061
[PubMed - in process]
Free full text
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24950061