tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
- Nikolaj U Friis[SUP]1[/SUP]
, Tomas Martin-Bertelsen[SUP]1[/SUP] , Rasmus K Pedersen[SUP]2[/SUP] , Jens Nielsen[SUP]1[/SUP] , Tyra G Krause[SUP]1[/SUP] , Viggo Andreasen[SUP]2[/SUP] , Lasse S Vestergaard[SUP]1[/SUP]
Background
It sparked considerable attention from international media when Denmark lifted restrictions against COVID-19 in February 2022 amidst widespread transmission of the new SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and a steep rise in reported COVID-19 mortality based on the 30-day COVID-19 death count.
Aim
Our aim was to investigate how coincidental infections affected COVID-19 mortality estimates following the introduction of the Omicron variant in late 2021.
Methods
We compared the 30-day COVID-19 death count with the observed mortality using three alternative mortality estimation methods; (i) a mathematical model to correct the 30-day COVID-19 death count for coincidental deaths, (ii) the Causes of Death Registry (CDR) and (iii) all-cause excess mortality.
Results
There was a substantial peak in the 30-day COVID-19 death count following the emergence of the Omicron variant in late 2021. However, there was also a substantial change in the proportion of coincidental deaths, increasing from 10–20% to around 40% of the recorded COVID-19 deaths. The high number of 30-day COVID-19 deaths was not reflected in the number of COVID-19 deaths in the CDR and the all-cause excess mortality surveillance.
Conclusion
Our analysis showed a distinct change in the mortality pattern following the introduction of Omicron in late 2021 with a markedly higher proportion of people estimated to have died with, rather than of, COVID-19 compared with mortality patterns observed earlier in the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating alternative mortality surveillance methods to more correctly estimate the burden of COVID-19 as the pandemic continues to evolve.
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2200547#html_fulltext