tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Euro Surveill. 2020 Mar;25(12). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293.
Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020.
Guzzetta G[SUP]1[/SUP], Poletti P[SUP]1[/SUP], Ajelli M[SUP]1[/SUP], Trentini F[SUP]1[/SUP], Marziano V[SUP]1[/SUP], Cereda D[SUP]2[/SUP], Tirani M[SUP]3,[/SUP][SUP]2[/SUP], Diurno G[SUP]2[/SUP], Bodina A[SUP]2[/SUP], Barone A[SUP]2[/SUP], Crottogini L[SUP]2[/SUP], Gramegna M[SUP]2[/SUP], Melegaro A[SUP]4,[/SUP][SUP]5[/SUP], Merler S[SUP]4,[/SUP][SUP]1[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717-459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250-67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.
KEYWORDS:
COVID-19; Coronavirus; Lombardy outbreak; SARS-CoV-2; modelling
PMID:32234117DOI:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293
Free full text
Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020.
Guzzetta G[SUP]1[/SUP], Poletti P[SUP]1[/SUP], Ajelli M[SUP]1[/SUP], Trentini F[SUP]1[/SUP], Marziano V[SUP]1[/SUP], Cereda D[SUP]2[/SUP], Tirani M[SUP]3,[/SUP][SUP]2[/SUP], Diurno G[SUP]2[/SUP], Bodina A[SUP]2[/SUP], Barone A[SUP]2[/SUP], Crottogini L[SUP]2[/SUP], Gramegna M[SUP]2[/SUP], Melegaro A[SUP]4,[/SUP][SUP]5[/SUP], Merler S[SUP]4,[/SUP][SUP]1[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717-459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250-67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.
KEYWORDS:
COVID-19; Coronavirus; Lombardy outbreak; SARS-CoV-2; modelling
PMID:32234117DOI:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293
Free full text