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Open Nurs J. 2017 Jun 29;11:64-72. doi: 10.2174/1874434601711010064. eCollection 2017.
[h=1]Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of Novel Influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 in Elementary Schools Using the SIR Model.[/h] Furushima D[SUP]1[/SUP], Kawano S[SUP]2[/SUP], Ohno Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Kakehashi M[SUP]2[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]BACKGROUND:[/h] The novel influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 (A/H1N1pdm) pandemic of 2009-2010 had a great impact on society.
[h=4]OBJECTIVE:[/h] We analyzed data from the absentee survey, conducted in elementary schools of Oita City, to evaluate the A/H1N1pdm pandemic and to estimate the basic reproductive number (R[SUB]0[/SUB] ) of this novel strain.
[h=4]METHOD:[/h] We summarized the overall absentee data and calculated the cumulative infection rate. Then, we classified the data into 3 groups according to school size: small (<300 students), medium (300-600 students), and large (>600 students). Last, we estimated the R[SUB]0[/SUB] value by using the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) mathematical model.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] Data from 60 schools and 27,403 students were analyzed. The overall cumulative infection rate was 44.4%. There were no significant differences among the grades, but the cumulative infection rate increased as the school size increased, being 37.7%, 44.4%, and 46.6% in the small, medium, and large school groups, respectively. The optimal R[SUB]0[/SUB] value was 1.33, comparable with that previously reported. The data from the absentee survey were reliable, with no missing values. Hence, the R[SUB]0[/SUB] derived from the SIR model closely reflected the observed R[SUB]0[/SUB] . The findings support previous reports that school children are most susceptible to A/H1N1pdm virus infection and suggest that the scale of an outbreak is associated with the size of the school.
[h=4]CONCLUSION:[/h] Our results provide further information about the A/H1N1pdm pandemic. We propose that an absentee survey should be implemented in the early stages of an epidemic, to prevent a pandemic.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] A/H1N1pdm; Absentee survey; Basic reproductive number; Elementary school student; SIR model; School health
PMID: 28761570 PMCID: PMC5510564 DOI: 10.2174/1874434601711010064
Free PMC Article
[h=1]Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of Novel Influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 in Elementary Schools Using the SIR Model.[/h] Furushima D[SUP]1[/SUP], Kawano S[SUP]2[/SUP], Ohno Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Kakehashi M[SUP]2[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]BACKGROUND:[/h] The novel influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 (A/H1N1pdm) pandemic of 2009-2010 had a great impact on society.
[h=4]OBJECTIVE:[/h] We analyzed data from the absentee survey, conducted in elementary schools of Oita City, to evaluate the A/H1N1pdm pandemic and to estimate the basic reproductive number (R[SUB]0[/SUB] ) of this novel strain.
[h=4]METHOD:[/h] We summarized the overall absentee data and calculated the cumulative infection rate. Then, we classified the data into 3 groups according to school size: small (<300 students), medium (300-600 students), and large (>600 students). Last, we estimated the R[SUB]0[/SUB] value by using the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) mathematical model.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] Data from 60 schools and 27,403 students were analyzed. The overall cumulative infection rate was 44.4%. There were no significant differences among the grades, but the cumulative infection rate increased as the school size increased, being 37.7%, 44.4%, and 46.6% in the small, medium, and large school groups, respectively. The optimal R[SUB]0[/SUB] value was 1.33, comparable with that previously reported. The data from the absentee survey were reliable, with no missing values. Hence, the R[SUB]0[/SUB] derived from the SIR model closely reflected the observed R[SUB]0[/SUB] . The findings support previous reports that school children are most susceptible to A/H1N1pdm virus infection and suggest that the scale of an outbreak is associated with the size of the school.
[h=4]CONCLUSION:[/h] Our results provide further information about the A/H1N1pdm pandemic. We propose that an absentee survey should be implemented in the early stages of an epidemic, to prevent a pandemic.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] A/H1N1pdm; Absentee survey; Basic reproductive number; Elementary school student; SIR model; School health
PMID: 28761570 PMCID: PMC5510564 DOI: 10.2174/1874434601711010064
Free PMC Article