tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Bull Math Biol. 2018 Jan 25. doi: 10.1007/s11538-018-0395-5. [Epub ahead of print]
[h=1]Estimation of Cross-Immunity Between Drifted Strains of Influenza A/H3N2.[/h] Asaduzzaman SM[SUP]1[/SUP], Ma J[SUP]2[/SUP], van den Driessche P[SUP]1[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] To determine the cross-immunity between influenza strains, we design a novel statistical method, which uses a theoretical model and clinical data on attack rates and vaccine efficacy among school children for two seasons after the 1968 A/H3N2 influenza pandemic. This model incorporates the distribution of susceptibility and the dependence of cross-immunity on the antigenic distance of drifted strains. We find that the cross-immunity between an influenza strain and the mutant that causes the next epidemic is 88%. Our method also gives estimates of the vaccine protection against the vaccinating strain, and the basic reproduction number of the 1968 pandemic influenza.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Basic reproduction number; Cross-immunity; Drift evolution; Evolutionary tree; Seasonal influenza strains; Vaccine protection
PMID: 29372495 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-018-0395-5
[h=1]Estimation of Cross-Immunity Between Drifted Strains of Influenza A/H3N2.[/h] Asaduzzaman SM[SUP]1[/SUP], Ma J[SUP]2[/SUP], van den Driessche P[SUP]1[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] To determine the cross-immunity between influenza strains, we design a novel statistical method, which uses a theoretical model and clinical data on attack rates and vaccine efficacy among school children for two seasons after the 1968 A/H3N2 influenza pandemic. This model incorporates the distribution of susceptibility and the dependence of cross-immunity on the antigenic distance of drifted strains. We find that the cross-immunity between an influenza strain and the mutant that causes the next epidemic is 88%. Our method also gives estimates of the vaccine protection against the vaccinating strain, and the basic reproduction number of the 1968 pandemic influenza.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Basic reproduction number; Cross-immunity; Drift evolution; Evolutionary tree; Seasonal influenza strains; Vaccine protection
PMID: 29372495 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-018-0395-5