tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2015 May 12. doi: 10.1111/irv.12321. [Epub ahead of print]
[h=1]Estimating the Secondary Attack Rate and Serial Interval of Influenza-like Illnesses using Social Media.[/h] Yom-Tov E[SUP]1[/SUP], Cox IJ[SUP]2,[/SUP][SUP]3[/SUP], Lampos V[SUP]2[/SUP], Hayward AC[SUP]4[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]BACKGROUND:[/h] Knowledge of the Secondary Attack Rate (SAR) and Serial Interval (SI) of influenza is important for assessing the severity of seasonal epidemics of the virus. To date, such estimates have required extensive surveys of target populations.
[h=4]OBJECTIVES:[/h] Here we propose a method for estimating the intra-family SAR and SI from postings on the Twitter social network. This estimate is derived from a large number of people reporting ILI symptoms in them and\or their immediate family members.
[h=4]METHODS:[/h] We analyze data from the 2012-2013 and the 2013-2014 influenza seasons in England and find that increases in the estimated SAR precede increases in ILI rates reported by physicians.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] We hypothesize that observed variations in the peak value of SAR are related to the appearance of specific strains of the virus, and demonstrate this by comparing the changes in SAR values over time in relation to known virology. In addition we estimate SI (the average time between cases) as 2.41 days for 2012 and 2.48 days for 2013.
[h=4]CONCLUSIONS:[/h] The proposed method can assist health authorities by providing near real time estimation of SAR and SI, and especially in alerting to sudden increases thereof. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Secondary Attack Rate; Social media; influenza-like illness - ILI
PMID: 25962320 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
[h=1]Estimating the Secondary Attack Rate and Serial Interval of Influenza-like Illnesses using Social Media.[/h] Yom-Tov E[SUP]1[/SUP], Cox IJ[SUP]2,[/SUP][SUP]3[/SUP], Lampos V[SUP]2[/SUP], Hayward AC[SUP]4[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]BACKGROUND:[/h] Knowledge of the Secondary Attack Rate (SAR) and Serial Interval (SI) of influenza is important for assessing the severity of seasonal epidemics of the virus. To date, such estimates have required extensive surveys of target populations.
[h=4]OBJECTIVES:[/h] Here we propose a method for estimating the intra-family SAR and SI from postings on the Twitter social network. This estimate is derived from a large number of people reporting ILI symptoms in them and\or their immediate family members.
[h=4]METHODS:[/h] We analyze data from the 2012-2013 and the 2013-2014 influenza seasons in England and find that increases in the estimated SAR precede increases in ILI rates reported by physicians.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] We hypothesize that observed variations in the peak value of SAR are related to the appearance of specific strains of the virus, and demonstrate this by comparing the changes in SAR values over time in relation to known virology. In addition we estimate SI (the average time between cases) as 2.41 days for 2012 and 2.48 days for 2013.
[h=4]CONCLUSIONS:[/h] The proposed method can assist health authorities by providing near real time estimation of SAR and SI, and especially in alerting to sudden increases thereof. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Secondary Attack Rate; Social media; influenza-like illness - ILI
PMID: 25962320 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]