tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
N C Med J. 2016 Jan-Feb;77(1):15-22. doi: 10.18043/ncm.77.1.15.
[h=1]Estimating the Burden of Pandemic Infectious Disease: The Case of the Second Wave of Pandemic Influenza H1N1 in Forsyth County, North Carolina.[/h] Peters TR[SUP]1[/SUP], Snively BM[SUP]2[/SUP], Suerken CK[SUP]3[/SUP], Bischoff W[SUP]4[/SUP], Vannoy L[SUP]5[/SUP], Blakeney E[SUP]5[/SUP], Bischoff T[SUP]6[/SUP], Palavecino E[SUP]7[/SUP], Sherertz R[SUP]8[/SUP], Poehling KA[SUP]9[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]BACKGROUND:[/h] Understanding the burden of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus during the second wave of 2009-2010 is important for future pandemic planning.
[h=4]METHODS:[/h] Persons who presented to the emergency department (ED) or were hospitalized with fever and/or acute respiratory symptoms at the academic medical center in Forsyth County, North Carolina were prospectively enrolled and underwent nasal/throat swab testing for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus identified through active surveillance were compared by capture-recapture analysis to those identified through independent, passive surveillance (physician-ordered influenza testing). This approach estimated the number of total cases, including those not captured by either surveillance method. A second analysis estimated the total number of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 cases by multiplying weekly influenza percentages determined via active surveillance by weekly counts of influenza-associated discharge diagnoses from administrative data. Market share adjustments were used to estimate influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus ED visits or hospitalizations per 1,000 residents.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] Capture-recapture analysis estimated that 753 residents (95% confidence interval [CI], 424-2,735) with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus were seen in the academic medical center from September 2009 through mid-April 2010; this result yielded an estimated 4.7 (95% CI, 2.6-16.9) influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus ED visits or hospitalizations per 1,000 residents. Similarly, 708 visits were estimated using weekly influenza percentages and influenza-associated discharge diagnoses, yielding an estimated 4.4 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus ED visits or hospitalizations per 1,000 residents.
[h=4]CONCLUSION:[/h] This study demonstrates that the burden of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in ED and inpatient settings by capture-recapture analysis was 4-5 per 1,000 residents; this rate was approximately 8-fold higher than that detected by physician-ordered influenza testing.
?2016 by the North Carolina Institute of Medicine and The Duke Endowment. All rights reserved.
PMID: 26763239 [PubMed - in process] Free full text
[h=1]Estimating the Burden of Pandemic Infectious Disease: The Case of the Second Wave of Pandemic Influenza H1N1 in Forsyth County, North Carolina.[/h] Peters TR[SUP]1[/SUP], Snively BM[SUP]2[/SUP], Suerken CK[SUP]3[/SUP], Bischoff W[SUP]4[/SUP], Vannoy L[SUP]5[/SUP], Blakeney E[SUP]5[/SUP], Bischoff T[SUP]6[/SUP], Palavecino E[SUP]7[/SUP], Sherertz R[SUP]8[/SUP], Poehling KA[SUP]9[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]BACKGROUND:[/h] Understanding the burden of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus during the second wave of 2009-2010 is important for future pandemic planning.
[h=4]METHODS:[/h] Persons who presented to the emergency department (ED) or were hospitalized with fever and/or acute respiratory symptoms at the academic medical center in Forsyth County, North Carolina were prospectively enrolled and underwent nasal/throat swab testing for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus identified through active surveillance were compared by capture-recapture analysis to those identified through independent, passive surveillance (physician-ordered influenza testing). This approach estimated the number of total cases, including those not captured by either surveillance method. A second analysis estimated the total number of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 cases by multiplying weekly influenza percentages determined via active surveillance by weekly counts of influenza-associated discharge diagnoses from administrative data. Market share adjustments were used to estimate influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus ED visits or hospitalizations per 1,000 residents.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] Capture-recapture analysis estimated that 753 residents (95% confidence interval [CI], 424-2,735) with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus were seen in the academic medical center from September 2009 through mid-April 2010; this result yielded an estimated 4.7 (95% CI, 2.6-16.9) influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus ED visits or hospitalizations per 1,000 residents. Similarly, 708 visits were estimated using weekly influenza percentages and influenza-associated discharge diagnoses, yielding an estimated 4.4 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus ED visits or hospitalizations per 1,000 residents.
[h=4]CONCLUSION:[/h] This study demonstrates that the burden of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in ED and inpatient settings by capture-recapture analysis was 4-5 per 1,000 residents; this rate was approximately 8-fold higher than that detected by physician-ordered influenza testing.
?2016 by the North Carolina Institute of Medicine and The Duke Endowment. All rights reserved.
PMID: 26763239 [PubMed - in process] Free full text