tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J R Soc Interface. 2011 Feb 23. [Epub ahead of print]
Estimating reproduction numbers for adults and children from case data.
Glass K, Mercer GN, Nishiura H, McBryde ES, Becker NG.
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
Abstract
We present a method for estimating reproduction numbers for adults and children from daily onset data, using pandemic influenza A(H1N1) data as a case study. We investigate the impact of different underlying transmission assumptions on our estimates, and identify that asymmetric reproduction matrices are often appropriate. Under-reporting of cases can bias estimates of the reproduction numbers if reporting rates are not equal across the two age groups. However, we demonstrate that the estimate of the higher reproduction number is robust to disproportionate data-thinning. Applying the method to 2009 pandemic influenza H1N1 data from Japan, we demonstrate that the reproduction number for children was considerably higher than that of adults, and that our estimates are insensitive to our choice of reproduction matrix.
PMID: 21345858 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21345858
Estimating reproduction numbers for adults and children from case data.
Glass K, Mercer GN, Nishiura H, McBryde ES, Becker NG.
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
Abstract
We present a method for estimating reproduction numbers for adults and children from daily onset data, using pandemic influenza A(H1N1) data as a case study. We investigate the impact of different underlying transmission assumptions on our estimates, and identify that asymmetric reproduction matrices are often appropriate. Under-reporting of cases can bias estimates of the reproduction numbers if reporting rates are not equal across the two age groups. However, we demonstrate that the estimate of the higher reproduction number is robust to disproportionate data-thinning. Applying the method to 2009 pandemic influenza H1N1 data from Japan, we demonstrate that the reproduction number for children was considerably higher than that of adults, and that our estimates are insensitive to our choice of reproduction matrix.
PMID: 21345858 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21345858