tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Epidemiol Infect
. 2022 Sep 27;150:e171.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268822001467.
Transmission roles of symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases: a modelling study
Jianbin Tan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yang Ge[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Leonardo Martinez[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Jimin Sun[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Changwei Li[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Adrianna Westbrook[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Enfu Chen[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Jinren Pan[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Yang Li[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Wei Cheng[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Feng Ling[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Zhiping Chen[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Ye Shen[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Hui Huang[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) asymptomatic cases are hard to identify, impeding transmissibility estimation. The value of COVID-19 transmissibility is worth further elucidation for key assumptions in further modelling studies. Through a population-based surveillance network, we collected data on 1342 confirmed cases with a 90-days follow-up for all asymptomatic cases. An age-stratified compartmental model containing contact information was built to estimate the transmissibility of symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. The difference in transmissibility of a symptomatic and asymptomatic case depended on age and was most distinct for the middle-age groups. The asymptomatic cases had a 66.7% lower transmissibility rate than symptomatic cases, and 74.1% (95% CI 65.9-80.7) of all asymptomatic cases were missed in detection. The average proportion of asymptomatic cases was 28.2% (95% CI 23.0-34.6). Simulation demonstrated that the burden of asymptomatic transmission increased as the epidemic continued and could potentially dominate total transmission. The transmissibility of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases is high and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases play a significant role in outbreaks.
Keywords: Age-dependent contact; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; asymptomatic case; transmission.
. 2022 Sep 27;150:e171.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268822001467.
Transmission roles of symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases: a modelling study
Jianbin Tan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yang Ge[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Leonardo Martinez[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Jimin Sun[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Changwei Li[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Adrianna Westbrook[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Enfu Chen[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Jinren Pan[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Yang Li[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Wei Cheng[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Feng Ling[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Zhiping Chen[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Ye Shen[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Hui Huang[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 36263615
- DOI: 10.1017/S0950268822001467
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) asymptomatic cases are hard to identify, impeding transmissibility estimation. The value of COVID-19 transmissibility is worth further elucidation for key assumptions in further modelling studies. Through a population-based surveillance network, we collected data on 1342 confirmed cases with a 90-days follow-up for all asymptomatic cases. An age-stratified compartmental model containing contact information was built to estimate the transmissibility of symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. The difference in transmissibility of a symptomatic and asymptomatic case depended on age and was most distinct for the middle-age groups. The asymptomatic cases had a 66.7% lower transmissibility rate than symptomatic cases, and 74.1% (95% CI 65.9-80.7) of all asymptomatic cases were missed in detection. The average proportion of asymptomatic cases was 28.2% (95% CI 23.0-34.6). Simulation demonstrated that the burden of asymptomatic transmission increased as the epidemic continued and could potentially dominate total transmission. The transmissibility of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases is high and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases play a significant role in outbreaks.
Keywords: Age-dependent contact; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; asymptomatic case; transmission.