tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Epidemiol Health. 2020 Mar 12:e2020011. doi: 10.4178/epih.e2020011. [Epub ahead of print] [h=1]Estimating the reproductive number and the outbreak size of Novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using mathematical model in Republic of Korea.[/h]
Choi SC[SUP]1[/SUP], Ki M[SUP]1[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]Objectives:[/h] Since the first novel coronavirus disease(COVID-19) patient was diagnosed on 20-Jan, about 30 patients were diagnosed in Korea until 17-Feb. However, 5,298 more patient were confirmed until 4-Mar. The purpose is to estimate and evaluate the effectiveness of preventive measures using mathematical modeling.
[h=4]Methods:[/h] Deterministic mathematical model(SEIHR) has been established to suit the Korean outbreak. The number of confirmed patients in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province(Daegu/NGP), the main area of outbreak, were used. The first patient's symptom onset date was assumed on 22-Jan. We estimate the reproduction number(R), and the effect of preventive measures, assuming that the effect has been shown from 29-Feb. or 5-Mar.
[h=4]Results:[/h] The estimated R in Hubei Province was 4.2655, while the estimated initial R in Korea was 0.5555, but later in Daegu/NGP, the value was between 3.4721 and 3.5428. When the transmission period decreases from 4 days to 2 days, the outbreak finished early, but the peak of the epidemic has increased, and the total number of patients has not changed much. If transmission rate decreases about 90% or 99%, the outbreak finished early, and the size of the peak and the total number of patients also decreased.
[h=4]Conclusion:[/h] To early end of the COVID-19 epidemic, efforts to reduce the spread of the virus such as social distancing and mask wearing are absolutely crucial with the participation of the public, along with the policy of reducing the transmission period by finding and isolating patients as quickly as possible through efforts by the quarantine authorities.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Coronavirus; Epidemiology; Mathematical model; Outbreak; Reproductive number; Republic of Korea
PMID: 32164053 DOI: 10.4178/epih.e2020011
Choi SC[SUP]1[/SUP], Ki M[SUP]1[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]Objectives:[/h] Since the first novel coronavirus disease(COVID-19) patient was diagnosed on 20-Jan, about 30 patients were diagnosed in Korea until 17-Feb. However, 5,298 more patient were confirmed until 4-Mar. The purpose is to estimate and evaluate the effectiveness of preventive measures using mathematical modeling.
[h=4]Methods:[/h] Deterministic mathematical model(SEIHR) has been established to suit the Korean outbreak. The number of confirmed patients in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province(Daegu/NGP), the main area of outbreak, were used. The first patient's symptom onset date was assumed on 22-Jan. We estimate the reproduction number(R), and the effect of preventive measures, assuming that the effect has been shown from 29-Feb. or 5-Mar.
[h=4]Results:[/h] The estimated R in Hubei Province was 4.2655, while the estimated initial R in Korea was 0.5555, but later in Daegu/NGP, the value was between 3.4721 and 3.5428. When the transmission period decreases from 4 days to 2 days, the outbreak finished early, but the peak of the epidemic has increased, and the total number of patients has not changed much. If transmission rate decreases about 90% or 99%, the outbreak finished early, and the size of the peak and the total number of patients also decreased.
[h=4]Conclusion:[/h] To early end of the COVID-19 epidemic, efforts to reduce the spread of the virus such as social distancing and mask wearing are absolutely crucial with the participation of the public, along with the policy of reducing the transmission period by finding and isolating patients as quickly as possible through efforts by the quarantine authorities.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Coronavirus; Epidemiology; Mathematical model; Outbreak; Reproductive number; Republic of Korea
PMID: 32164053 DOI: 10.4178/epih.e2020011