tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Epidemics
. 2021 Nov 1;37:100519.
doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100519. Online ahead of print.
Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: A mathematical modeling study
Jong-Hoon Kim[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Hyojung Lee[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Yong Sul Won[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Woo-Sik Son[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Justin Im[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was observed in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a religious sect in South Korea. The index case was confirmed on February 18, 2020 in Daegu City, and within two weeks, 3081 connected cases were identified. Doubling times during these initial stages (i.e., February 18 - March 2) of the outbreak were less than 2 days. A stochastic model fitted to the time series of confirmed cases suggests that the basic reproduction number (R[SUB]0[/SUB]) of COVID-19 was 8.5 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6.3, 10.9] among the church members, whereas (R[SUB]0[/SUB] = 1.9 [95% CrI: 0.4, 4.4]) in the rest of the population of Daegu City. The model also suggests that there were already 4 [95% CrI: 2, 11] undetected cases of COVID-19 on February 7 when the index case reportedly presented symptoms. The Shincheonji Church cluster is likely to be emblematic of other outbreak-prone populations where R[SUB]0[/SUB] of COVID-19 is higher. Understanding and subsequently limiting the risk of transmission in such high-risk places is key to effective control.
Keywords: COVID-19; Korea; Reproduction number; Shincheonji cluster; Transmission model
. 2021 Nov 1;37:100519.
doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100519. Online ahead of print.
Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: A mathematical modeling study
Jong-Hoon Kim[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Hyojung Lee[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Yong Sul Won[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Woo-Sik Son[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Justin Im[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 34742106
- PMCID: PMC8559423
- DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100519
Abstract
Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was observed in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a religious sect in South Korea. The index case was confirmed on February 18, 2020 in Daegu City, and within two weeks, 3081 connected cases were identified. Doubling times during these initial stages (i.e., February 18 - March 2) of the outbreak were less than 2 days. A stochastic model fitted to the time series of confirmed cases suggests that the basic reproduction number (R[SUB]0[/SUB]) of COVID-19 was 8.5 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6.3, 10.9] among the church members, whereas (R[SUB]0[/SUB] = 1.9 [95% CrI: 0.4, 4.4]) in the rest of the population of Daegu City. The model also suggests that there were already 4 [95% CrI: 2, 11] undetected cases of COVID-19 on February 7 when the index case reportedly presented symptoms. The Shincheonji Church cluster is likely to be emblematic of other outbreak-prone populations where R[SUB]0[/SUB] of COVID-19 is higher. Understanding and subsequently limiting the risk of transmission in such high-risk places is key to effective control.
Keywords: COVID-19; Korea; Reproduction number; Shincheonji cluster; Transmission model