tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Epidemics
. 2021 Jun 24;36:100482.
doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100482. Online ahead of print.
Estimating the generation interval and inferring the latent period of COVID-19 from the contact tracing data
Shi Zhao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Biao Tang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Salihu S Musa[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Shujuan Ma[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Jiayue Zhang[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Minyan Zeng[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Qingping Yun[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Wei Guo[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Yixiang Zheng[SUP] 9 [/SUP], Zuyao Yang[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Zhihang Peng[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Marc Kc Chong[SUP] 12 [/SUP], Mohammad Javanbakht[SUP] 13 [/SUP], Daihai He[SUP] 14 [/SUP], Maggie H Wang[SUP] 15 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged by end of 2019, and became a serious public health threat globally in less than half a year. The generation interval and latent period, though both are of importance in understanding the features of COVID-19 transmission, are difficult to observe, and thus they can rarely be learnt from surveillance data empirically. In this study, we develop a likelihood framework to estimate the generation interval and incubation period simultaneously by using the contact tracing data of COVID-19 cases, and infer the pre-symptomatic transmission proportion and latent period thereafter. We estimate the mean of incubation period at 6.8 days (95 %CI: 6.2, 7.5) and SD at 4.1 days (95 %CI: 3.7, 4.8), and the mean of generation interval at 6.7 days (95 %CI: 5.4, 7.6) and SD at 1.8 days (95 %CI: 0.3, 3.8). The basic reproduction number is estimated ranging from 1.9 to 3.6, and there are 49.8 % (95 %CI: 33.3, 71.5) of the secondary COVID-19 infections likely due to pre-symptomatic transmission. Using the best estimates of model parameters, we further infer the mean latent period at 3.3 days (95 %CI: 0.2, 7.9). Our findings highlight the importance of both isolation for symptomatic cases, and for the pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic cases.
Keywords: COVID-19; Contact tracing; Generation interval; Incubation period; Latent period; Serial interval; Statistical inference.
. 2021 Jun 24;36:100482.
doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100482. Online ahead of print.
Estimating the generation interval and inferring the latent period of COVID-19 from the contact tracing data
Shi Zhao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Biao Tang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Salihu S Musa[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Shujuan Ma[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Jiayue Zhang[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Minyan Zeng[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Qingping Yun[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Wei Guo[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Yixiang Zheng[SUP] 9 [/SUP], Zuyao Yang[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Zhihang Peng[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Marc Kc Chong[SUP] 12 [/SUP], Mohammad Javanbakht[SUP] 13 [/SUP], Daihai He[SUP] 14 [/SUP], Maggie H Wang[SUP] 15 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 34175549
- DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100482
Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged by end of 2019, and became a serious public health threat globally in less than half a year. The generation interval and latent period, though both are of importance in understanding the features of COVID-19 transmission, are difficult to observe, and thus they can rarely be learnt from surveillance data empirically. In this study, we develop a likelihood framework to estimate the generation interval and incubation period simultaneously by using the contact tracing data of COVID-19 cases, and infer the pre-symptomatic transmission proportion and latent period thereafter. We estimate the mean of incubation period at 6.8 days (95 %CI: 6.2, 7.5) and SD at 4.1 days (95 %CI: 3.7, 4.8), and the mean of generation interval at 6.7 days (95 %CI: 5.4, 7.6) and SD at 1.8 days (95 %CI: 0.3, 3.8). The basic reproduction number is estimated ranging from 1.9 to 3.6, and there are 49.8 % (95 %CI: 33.3, 71.5) of the secondary COVID-19 infections likely due to pre-symptomatic transmission. Using the best estimates of model parameters, we further infer the mean latent period at 3.3 days (95 %CI: 0.2, 7.9). Our findings highlight the importance of both isolation for symptomatic cases, and for the pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic cases.
Keywords: COVID-19; Contact tracing; Generation interval; Incubation period; Latent period; Serial interval; Statistical inference.