tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Environ Res
. 2022 Sep 14;114343.
doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114343. Online ahead of print.
Temperature and influenza transmission: Risk assessment and attributable burden estimation among 30 cities in China
Rui Zhang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhibin Peng[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Yujie Meng[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Hejia Song[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Songwang Wang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Peng Bi[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Dan Li[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Xiang Zhao[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Xiaoyuan Yao[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Yonghong Li[SUP] 6 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: Many studies have explored the epidemiological characteristics of influenza. However, most previous studies were conducted in a specific region without a national picture which is important to develop targeted strategies and measures on influenza control and prevention.
Objectives: To explore the association between ambient temperature and incidence of influenza, to estimate the attributable risk from temperature in 30 Chinese cities with different climatic characteristics for a national picture, and to identify the vulnerable populations for national preventative policy development.
Methods: Daily meteorological and influenza incidence data from the 30 Chinese cities over the period 2016-19 were collected. We estimated the city-specific association between daily mean temperature and influenza incidence using a distributed lag non-linear model and evaluated the pooled effects using multivariate meta-analysis. The attributable fractions compared with reference temperature were calculated. Stratified analyses were performed by region, sex and age.
Results: Overall, an N-shape relationship between temperature and influenza incidence was found in China. The cumulative relative risk of the peak risk temperature (5.1 °C) was 2.13 (95%CI: 1.41, 3.22). And 60% (95%eCI: 54.3%, 64.3%) of influenza incidence was attributed to ambient temperature during the days with sensitive temperatures (1.6°C-14.4 °C). The ranges of sensitive temperatures and the attributable disease burden due to temperatures varied for different populations and regions. The residents in South China and the children aged ≤5 and 6-17 years had higher fractions attributable to sensitive temperatures.
Conclusions: Tailored preventions targeting on most vulnerable populations and regions should be developed to reduce influenza burden from sensitive temperatures.
Keywords: Attributable fraction; Climate change; Influenza; Sensitive temperature; Vulnerable population.
. 2022 Sep 14;114343.
doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114343. Online ahead of print.
Temperature and influenza transmission: Risk assessment and attributable burden estimation among 30 cities in China
Rui Zhang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhibin Peng[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Yujie Meng[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Hejia Song[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Songwang Wang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Peng Bi[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Dan Li[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Xiang Zhao[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Xiaoyuan Yao[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Yonghong Li[SUP] 6 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 36115415
- DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114343
Abstract
Background: Many studies have explored the epidemiological characteristics of influenza. However, most previous studies were conducted in a specific region without a national picture which is important to develop targeted strategies and measures on influenza control and prevention.
Objectives: To explore the association between ambient temperature and incidence of influenza, to estimate the attributable risk from temperature in 30 Chinese cities with different climatic characteristics for a national picture, and to identify the vulnerable populations for national preventative policy development.
Methods: Daily meteorological and influenza incidence data from the 30 Chinese cities over the period 2016-19 were collected. We estimated the city-specific association between daily mean temperature and influenza incidence using a distributed lag non-linear model and evaluated the pooled effects using multivariate meta-analysis. The attributable fractions compared with reference temperature were calculated. Stratified analyses were performed by region, sex and age.
Results: Overall, an N-shape relationship between temperature and influenza incidence was found in China. The cumulative relative risk of the peak risk temperature (5.1 °C) was 2.13 (95%CI: 1.41, 3.22). And 60% (95%eCI: 54.3%, 64.3%) of influenza incidence was attributed to ambient temperature during the days with sensitive temperatures (1.6°C-14.4 °C). The ranges of sensitive temperatures and the attributable disease burden due to temperatures varied for different populations and regions. The residents in South China and the children aged ≤5 and 6-17 years had higher fractions attributable to sensitive temperatures.
Conclusions: Tailored preventions targeting on most vulnerable populations and regions should be developed to reduce influenza burden from sensitive temperatures.
Keywords: Attributable fraction; Climate change; Influenza; Sensitive temperature; Vulnerable population.