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Emily degenerates into a trough of low pressure

Pathfinder

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
730 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

CORRECTED FOR DETAILS IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 62.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
ISLANDS OF GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND
ANTIGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...AND
APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
WARNING AREA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO BY TUESDAY AND IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...AND IN HAITI BY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/012352.shtml
 
Re: Tropical storm Emily forms - Watches and warnings issued

Re: Tropical storm Emily forms - Watches and warnings issued

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
800 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS EMILY STILL POORLY ORGANIZED...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 63.7W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EMILY WAS A LITTLE
BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. AT 800 AM AST...
1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST. EMILY HAS SLOWED DOWN
AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TODAY...AND APPROACH HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE EMILY INTERACTS WITH LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES
LATER TODAY...AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS
MORNING...AND IN HAITI BY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/021151.shtml

-------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EMILY INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS ONLY SLIGHT
EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES...AND SINCE THE CENTER LOCATION IS
QUITE UNCERTAIN IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR THE CENTER IS
EMBEDDED INTO THE DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. CONSEQUENTLY...
OBTAINING A RELIABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATE VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS
PROBLEMATIC. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY AROUND 1200 UTC AND SHOULD GIVE A
BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. RADIOSONDE DATA
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN STATIONS SHOW SOME UNFAVORABLE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 300 MB JUST BELOW THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW LEVEL. MOREOVER...AS NOTED EARLIER...SOME DRY AIR IS
PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF EMILY. IN A FEW
DAYS...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THESE LARGE-SCALE FACTORS...THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN EMILY TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING INTERRUPTED BY THE
INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA...BUT NO LONGER BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO
HURRICANE INTENSITY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR MOST RELIABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL LGEM.

SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
RATHER UNCERTAIN 280/14. THE STORM SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR A DAY OR SO. AS A TROUGH
JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WEAKENS THE RIDGE...A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST...WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF A
DEEPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A MUCH MORE WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE
SHALLOW VORTEX OR TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THE GFS AND ECMWF. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EMILY WILL BE AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE IN
3 TO 5 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 15.5N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 16.2N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 17.0N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.8N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0600Z 22.5N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/0600Z 26.0N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 30.0N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/020848.shtml?
 
Re: Tropical storm Emily forms - Watches and warnings issued

Re: Tropical storm Emily forms - Watches and warnings issued

vis-l.jpg



rb-l.jpg


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

vis-l.jpg


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg
 
Last edited:
Re: Tropical storm Emily forms - Watches and warnings issued

Re: Tropical storm Emily forms - Watches and warnings issued

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours
Select a Future Forecast Time Below:
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 hours Loop


Click image to zoom in ? Download GIS data: 0.1 degree .shp 0.5 degree .shp

084712.gif


Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to zoom in ? Download GIS data
Other images: 5-Day track on ? 3-Day track on ? 3-Day track off

084712W5_NL_sm.gif


Surface Wind Field

Click image to zoom in ? Download GIS data


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/084712.shtml?radii#contents
 
Re: Tropical storm Emily forms - Watches and warnings issued

Re: Tropical storm Emily forms - Watches and warnings issued

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
800 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...OUTER RAINBANDS MOVING ACROSS
PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 66.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE LOCATED MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
CENTER MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. A NOAA NATIONAL OCEAN
SERVICE STATION AT ESPERANZA ON THE ISLAND OF VIEQUES RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 34 MPH...55 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 44
MPH...71 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND IN
THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/022339.shtml?

----------------------------------------------------------------

WTNT45 KNHC 022042
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH EMILY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME INCREASE
IN THE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT DATA FROM THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOT YET
WELL DEFINED AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 45 KNOTS AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE
EMILY MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IF EMILY
SURVIVES THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST
TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION ONCE THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST OR CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE GFS...WHICH
DISSIPATED EMILY IN THE TWO PREVIOUS RUNS HAS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
STORM MOVING EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS IN THE 12 UTC RUN.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.

SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND HAS BEEN REFORMING
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT EMILY HAS RESUMED A WESTWARD TRACK AND
IS NOW MOVING ABOUT 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTING
EASTWARD. THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN SPEED. MOST OF THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS EMILY MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 15.8N 65.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 16.2N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 17.3N 68.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 18.5N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1800Z 20.5N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 05/1800Z 24.0N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 28.0N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 32.0N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/022042.shtml?
 
Re: Tropical storm Emily forms - Watches and warnings issued

Re: Tropical storm Emily forms - Watches and warnings issued

Haiti braces for tropical storm Emily

Caribbean island preparing for worst as storm threatens thousands of earthquake survivors still living in homeless camp<SCRIPT type=text/javascript>omnitracker.omniTrackEVarEvent( 12, 16, 'World news: Reddit', 'click', '.reddit a' );</SCRIPT>

Lizzy Davies
guardian.co.uk, <TIME datetime="2011-08-03T14:58BST" pubdate>Wednesday 3 August 2011 14.58 BST</TIME>


Haitians are bracing for a fresh crisis as meteorologists warn that tropical storm Emily will sweep the island within hours, prompting fears of severe flooding in a country where hundreds of thousands are still without shelter.

Authorities in Haiti, which is struggling to recover from the devastating earthquake of 2010, have advised people to store food and have set aside a fleet of buses for use in the event that residents have to be evacuated from flooded areas.

Emily is expected to hit Hispaniola, the Caribbean island consisting of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, by Wednesday evening.

Alex Sosnowski, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather.com, said heavy rain would "threaten more lives" in Haiti. "If Emily crosses part of Hispaniola, as projected, the hillsides and mountains may be the focus of the rainfall, leading to excessive amounts in some locations," he wrote in a blogpost. "Deforestation on the island nation will compound the problem, increasing the rate of runoff and the risk of flash flooding and mudslides. People are urged to move to higher, stable ground prior to the arrival of Emily's rainfall slated to hit in bulk on Wednesday."

More...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/03/haiti-braces-tropical-storm-emily
 
Re: Tropical storm Emily forms - Watches and warnings issued

Re: Tropical storm Emily forms - Watches and warnings issued

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
200 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

CORRECTED TO ADD LINE IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION

...EMILY STILL MOVING WESTWARD...APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED.....


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 70.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE VERY NEAR OR OVER CABO BEATA IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE TODAY...OVER HAITI TONIGHT...AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING EMILY AND
WILL GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE WESTERN
PORTION OF HISPANIOLA...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE
CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD NOW BE SPREADING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN
CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/031807.shtml
 
Re: Tropical storm Emily forms - Watches and warnings issued

Re: Tropical storm Emily forms - Watches and warnings issued

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
800 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

...EMILY STALLS...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 70.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO FRANCIS VIEJO SOUTHEASTWARD TO
CABO ENGANO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST. EMILY HAS MOVED LITTLE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WESTWARD
MOTION OF ABOUT 14 MPH...22 KM/H IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI EARLY THURSDAY AND MOVE
OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST...AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/032332.shtml

-------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

SOME DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...
AND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY IN EMILY
INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KNOTS...WITH A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. WIND SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE...BUT GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE
THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. BY THEN...EMILY SHOULD BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET...WITH EMILY STILL MOVING
WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. SO FAR MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD
BIAS. EVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS STILL REFORMS THE CYCLONE
NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
THEN EASTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 16.9N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 17.5N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 19.5N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 21.5N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 23.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 78.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 31.0N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/032057.shtml?
 
Re: Tropical storm Emily forms - Watches and warnings issued

Re: Tropical storm Emily forms - Watches and warnings issued

Haitians hunker down as Tropical Storm Emily nears

Updated at 07:49 AM today

Excerpt:

...John Cangialosi, a hurricane specialist with the hurricane center, said up to 20 inches of rain was possible in isolated high-elevation areas. That is enough to cause serious problems in a country prone to catastrophic flooding.

Michel Davison of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the storm earlier dropped up to 10 inches (250 millimeters) of rain in parts of Puerto Rico, though its center never got within 100 miles (160 kilometers) of the island.
...
An unknown number of people left flood-prone areas to stay with relatives and friends, said Emmanuelle Schneider, a spokeswoman for the United Nations' Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. There had been no government-organized evacuations by late Wednesday, she added.

"There will be an official evacuation when there's flooding," Schneider said.

There was reason for concern. A slow-moving storm in June triggered mudslides and floods in Haiti and killed at least 28 people. And widespread poverty makes it difficult for people to take even the most basic precautions...

Full text:
http://abclocal.go.com/wls/story?section=news/national_world&id=8288590
 
Tropical storm Emily - Watches and warnings issued

Tropical storm Emily - Watches and warnings issued

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...EMILY NUDGING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...DRENCHING HISPANIOLA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 72.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI LATER TODAY
AND MOVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA.
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE
BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA...AND 2 TO 4 FEET WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA IN THE BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/041442.shtml

---------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WAS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CENTER. TODAY THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION WITH
CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...A POSSIBLE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER...DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EARLIER THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS AND THE CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE IS STEADY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE COMPLEX THAN USUAL. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA AND THAT IMPLIES WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...GLOBAL
MODELS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE...AND OBVIOUSLY THESE MODELS
CAN DETECT AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT APPARENT TO ME.
THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST INTENSIFICATION WITH SUCH
INDICATIONS FROM THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE. ON THE OTHER HAND...SHIPS
AND THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THIS HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY...OR PERHAPS FOR A SLIGHT WEAKENING
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BY HAITI AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ONCE EMILY REACHES THE AREA OF
THE BAHAMAS.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FIXES INDICATE THAT EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS.
IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST EMILY WILL REACH BEFORE RECURVATURE...
PRIMARILY GIVEN THAT GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF EMILY WELL OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND GIVEN THE SMALL TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WIND RADII ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 17.3N 72.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 18.6N 73.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 21.0N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 23.0N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 25.0N 78.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 29.0N 77.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 32.5N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/041443.shtml?
 
Emily degenerates into a trough of low pressure - Heavy rains continue over Hispaniola

Emily degenerates into a trough of low pressure - Heavy rains continue over Hispaniola

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...EMILY DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 75.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
HAVE DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF EMILY WERE
CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SQUALLS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH EMILY HAS WEAKENED IT IS CAPABLE TO PRODUCE
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS GUSTS COULD STILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/042031.shtml

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REMNANTS OF EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

SINCE ITS INCEPTION...EMILY NEVER HAD A PARTICULARLY ROBUST
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA
CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE FURTHER DEGENERATION OF THE
CYCLONE TODAY. SATELLITE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EMILY NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION....AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 75W. THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS
FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA.

THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

EVEN THOUGH EMILY HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A THREAT FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 19.0N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/042031.shtml
 
Last edited:
Orange alert for conus from tropical storm emily

Orange alert for conus from tropical storm emily

ORANGE ALERT FOR CONUS FROM TROPICAL STORM EMILY

REASON: Conditions are favorable for Emily to regain hurricane status somewhere over the strait between Cuba and Florida.
NEXT CRITICAL DATA POINT FOR EMILY: When Emily is midway between Cuba and CONUS.

CRITICAL DATA POINTS FOR HURRICANE EMILY (as of 1800R04AUG2011)

Water temperatures guide hurricanes along with upper level air dynamics.

Water temperatures raise the energy and therefore the force of a hurricane.
Hurricanes favor warmer water over cooler water especially if all guiding conditions are favorable. EXAMPLE- This is how Hurricane Katrina gained so much massive force in its last 600 miles over the Gulf.

Water temperatures off Florida to the west are 88F and 86F to the east.
Waters between the Bahamas and CONUS are always warmer than that north of Cuba.

Currently in the western Atlantic east of NE CONUS are large anomalies of warm ocean in the 84-86F range.

Simple rule of hurricanes is follow the pressure systems for upper air dynamic influences.

Currently there is not a high pressure system within 800 miles of Florida.

That means that all of Emily?s path are low pressure areas with clockwise winds currently going E-W over all areas from Cuba to southern Georgia.

Low pressure systems and hurricanes share the same rotational direction. This energizes hurricanes and guides them.

Hurricanes are repelled by High Pressure systems. EXAMPLE- Emily over the eastern Caribbean turned N-NW because of a large High Pressure system over the Yucatan Peninsula.

BOTTOM LINE:
Conditions are favorable for Emily to regain hurricane status somewhere over the strait between Cuba and Florida.

It is likely, under the conditions today, that the storm will steer over southern Florida into the Gulf of Mexico but not further than a N-S line over Louisiana.

Should the storm go more north, it will gain plenty of energy in the very warm waters between Florida and the Bahamas. The current nearest High pressure system is likely to move S-E. This should shield the NE CONUS putting the SE CONUS in the cross hairs of the storm.

Should the storm continue far enough north, the coriolis effect will help push it out to sea. However, the North Atlantic would see one of the most powerful storms in a very long time because of the mass of the warm water anomalies it would likely encounter there, mentioned above.

NEXT CRITICAL DATA POINT: When Emily is mid way across the strait between Cuba and CONUS.
 
Re: Emily degenerates into a trough of low pressure - Heavy rains continue over Hispaniola

Re: Emily degenerates into a trough of low pressure - Heavy rains continue over Hispaniola

Posted on Friday, 08.05.11

Tropical Storm Emily will bypass N.C. coast


Excerpt:

Rainfall is needed
Here, Emily's death wasn't entirely good news. Typically, Eastern North Carolina gets much of its summer rainfall from tropical weather systems, and earlier forecasts had given Emily the potential, with relatively weak winds and lots of moisture, to be nearly ideal, at least if there has to be a big storm.

Almost the entire eastern half of the state is in a drought that along nearly the entire coast is categorized as severe or extreme. It's so bad that even forecasters were thinking Emily had potential to do perhaps more good than bad.​

"I almost wish it would come because we really need the rain," Ron Wall, meteorologist for the state Division of Emergency Management, said Thursday morning.​


 
Re: Emily degenerates into a trough of low pressure

Flooding still threat for Haiti after Emily wanes

Friday, August 05, 2011

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PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti -- Farmers in Haiti's rural center are keeping a worried eye on rivers dangerously swollen by the heavy rains that fell even as Tropical Storm Emily dissipated, swirling over the mountains.

Some people headed to shelters in the Artibonite valley although most decided to stay in their homes in the region's isolated villages.

Civil protection authorities could not estimate the danger posed by flooding in the countryside late Thursday, but government worker Max Obed Desir said several villages were threatened. The Artibonite is particularly prone to flooding because the surrounding mountains have been almost completely deforested by people clearing trees for farming and to make charcoal.
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On Friday, the hurricane center estimated a 60 percent chance that a tropical depression could reform over the next 48 hours as the storm moves north.

Emily dropped more than 5 inches around the southwestern Dominican city of Barahona, prompting the government to order the evacuation of more than 5,000 people.

No deaths had been reported....

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http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/story?section=weather&id=8290993
 
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