tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Emerg Microbes Infect. 2020 Apr 22:1-28. doi: 10.1080/22221751.2020.1760143. [Epub ahead of print]
Impact of population movement on the spread of 2019-nCoV in China.
Zhang C[SUP]1[/SUP], Chen C[SUP]1[/SUP], Shen W[SUP]1[/SUP], Tang F[SUP]1[/SUP], Lei H[SUP]2[/SUP], Xie Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Cao Z[SUP]1[/SUP], Tang K[SUP]1[/SUP], Bai J[SUP]1[/SUP], Xiao L[SUP]1[/SUP], Xu Y[SUP]3[/SUP], Song Y[SUP]4[/SUP], Chen J[SUP]3[/SUP], Guo Z[SUP]1[/SUP], Guo Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Wang X[SUP]1[/SUP], Xu M[SUP]1[/SUP], Zou H[SUP]1[/SUP], Shu Y[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]5[/SUP], Du X[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]5[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
Since Dec 2019, China have experienced an outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV. A travel ban was implemented for Wuhan, Hubei on Jan 23 to slow down the outbreak. We found a significant positive correlation between population influx from Wuhan and confirmed cases in other cities across China (R[SUP]2[/SUP]=0.85, P <0.001), especially cities in Hubei (R[SUP]2[/SUP]=0.88, P <0.001). Removing the travel restriction would have increased 118% (91%-172%) of the overall cases for the coming week, and a travel ban taken three days or a week earlier would have reduced 47% (26%-58%) and 83% (78%-89%) of the early cases. We would expect a 61% (48%-92%) increase of overall cumulative cases without any restrictions on returning residents, and 11% (8%-16%) increase if the travel ban stays in place for Hubei. Cities from Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Capital Economic Circle regions are at higher risk.
KEYWORDS:
2019-nCov; population movement; risk; spread; travel ban
PMID:32321369DOI:10.1080/22221751.2020.1760143
Impact of population movement on the spread of 2019-nCoV in China.
Zhang C[SUP]1[/SUP], Chen C[SUP]1[/SUP], Shen W[SUP]1[/SUP], Tang F[SUP]1[/SUP], Lei H[SUP]2[/SUP], Xie Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Cao Z[SUP]1[/SUP], Tang K[SUP]1[/SUP], Bai J[SUP]1[/SUP], Xiao L[SUP]1[/SUP], Xu Y[SUP]3[/SUP], Song Y[SUP]4[/SUP], Chen J[SUP]3[/SUP], Guo Z[SUP]1[/SUP], Guo Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Wang X[SUP]1[/SUP], Xu M[SUP]1[/SUP], Zou H[SUP]1[/SUP], Shu Y[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]5[/SUP], Du X[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]5[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
Since Dec 2019, China have experienced an outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV. A travel ban was implemented for Wuhan, Hubei on Jan 23 to slow down the outbreak. We found a significant positive correlation between population influx from Wuhan and confirmed cases in other cities across China (R[SUP]2[/SUP]=0.85, P <0.001), especially cities in Hubei (R[SUP]2[/SUP]=0.88, P <0.001). Removing the travel restriction would have increased 118% (91%-172%) of the overall cases for the coming week, and a travel ban taken three days or a week earlier would have reduced 47% (26%-58%) and 83% (78%-89%) of the early cases. We would expect a 61% (48%-92%) increase of overall cumulative cases without any restrictions on returning residents, and 11% (8%-16%) increase if the travel ban stays in place for Hubei. Cities from Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Capital Economic Circle regions are at higher risk.
KEYWORDS:
2019-nCov; population movement; risk; spread; travel ban
PMID:32321369DOI:10.1080/22221751.2020.1760143