tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Emerg Infect Dis
. 2022 Feb 25;28(4).
doi: 10.3201/eid2804.210879. Online ahead of print.
Reassessing Reported Deaths and Estimated Infection Attack Rate during the First 6 Months of the COVID-19 Epidemic, Delhi, India
Margarita Pons-Salort, Jacob John, Oliver J Watson, Nicholas F Brazeau, Robert Verity, Gagandeep Kang, Nicholas C Grassly
Abstract
India reported >10 million coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and 149,000 deaths in 2020. To reassess reported deaths and estimate incidence rates during the first 6 months of the epidemic, we used a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission model fit to data from 3 serosurveys in Delhi and time-series documentation of reported deaths. We estimated 48.7% (95% credible interval 22.1%-76.8%) cumulative infection in the population through the end of September 2020. Using an age-adjusted overall infection fatality ratio based on age-specific estimates from mostly high-income countries, we estimated that just 15.0% (95% credible interval 9.3%-34.0%) of COVID-19 deaths had been reported, indicating either substantial underreporting or lower age-specific infection-fatality ratios in India than in high-income countries. Despite the estimated high attack rate, additional epidemic waves occurred in late 2020 and April-May 2021. Future dynamics will depend on the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity and their effectiveness against new variants.
Keywords: COVID-19; India; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus disease; epidemics; infection attack rate; infection fatality ratio; mathematical modeling; respiratory infections; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; viruses; zoonoses.
. 2022 Feb 25;28(4).
doi: 10.3201/eid2804.210879. Online ahead of print.
Reassessing Reported Deaths and Estimated Infection Attack Rate during the First 6 Months of the COVID-19 Epidemic, Delhi, India
Margarita Pons-Salort, Jacob John, Oliver J Watson, Nicholas F Brazeau, Robert Verity, Gagandeep Kang, Nicholas C Grassly
- PMID: 35213800
- DOI: 10.3201/eid2804.210879
Abstract
India reported >10 million coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and 149,000 deaths in 2020. To reassess reported deaths and estimate incidence rates during the first 6 months of the epidemic, we used a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission model fit to data from 3 serosurveys in Delhi and time-series documentation of reported deaths. We estimated 48.7% (95% credible interval 22.1%-76.8%) cumulative infection in the population through the end of September 2020. Using an age-adjusted overall infection fatality ratio based on age-specific estimates from mostly high-income countries, we estimated that just 15.0% (95% credible interval 9.3%-34.0%) of COVID-19 deaths had been reported, indicating either substantial underreporting or lower age-specific infection-fatality ratios in India than in high-income countries. Despite the estimated high attack rate, additional epidemic waves occurred in late 2020 and April-May 2021. Future dynamics will depend on the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity and their effectiveness against new variants.
Keywords: COVID-19; India; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus disease; epidemics; infection attack rate; infection fatality ratio; mathematical modeling; respiratory infections; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; viruses; zoonoses.