tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Emerg Infect Dis
. 2024 Jan 5;30(2).
doi: 10.3201/eid3002.230835. Online ahead of print.
Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19, United States
Yuan Bai, Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Eric H Y Lau, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, Petter Holme, Benjamin J Cowling, Alison P Galvani, Robert M Krug, Lauren Ancel Meyers
We evaluated the population-level benefits of expanding treatment with the antiviral drug Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir) in the United States for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infections. Using a multiscale mathematical model, we found that treating 20% of symptomatic case-patients with Paxlovid over a period of 300 days beginning in January 2022 resulted in life and cost savings. In a low-transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 1.2), this approach could avert 0.28 million (95% CI 0.03-0.59 million) hospitalizations and save US $56.95 billion (95% CI US $2.62-$122.63 billion). In a higher transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 3), the benefits increase, potentially preventing 0.85 million (95% CI 0.36-1.38 million) hospitalizations and saving US $170.17 billion (95% CI US $60.49-$286.14 billion). Our findings suggest that timely and widespread use of Paxlovid could be an effective and economical approach to mitigate the effects of COVID-19.
Keywords: COVID-19; Paxlovid; SARS-CoV-2; SARS-CoV-2 transmission; United States; coronavirus disease; mathematical model; public health impact; respiratory infections; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; treatment; viruses; zoonoses.
. 2024 Jan 5;30(2).
doi: 10.3201/eid3002.230835. Online ahead of print.
Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19, United States
Yuan Bai, Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Eric H Y Lau, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, Petter Holme, Benjamin J Cowling, Alison P Galvani, Robert M Krug, Lauren Ancel Meyers
- PMID: 38181800
- DOI: 10.3201/eid3002.230835
We evaluated the population-level benefits of expanding treatment with the antiviral drug Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir) in the United States for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infections. Using a multiscale mathematical model, we found that treating 20% of symptomatic case-patients with Paxlovid over a period of 300 days beginning in January 2022 resulted in life and cost savings. In a low-transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 1.2), this approach could avert 0.28 million (95% CI 0.03-0.59 million) hospitalizations and save US $56.95 billion (95% CI US $2.62-$122.63 billion). In a higher transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 3), the benefits increase, potentially preventing 0.85 million (95% CI 0.36-1.38 million) hospitalizations and saving US $170.17 billion (95% CI US $60.49-$286.14 billion). Our findings suggest that timely and widespread use of Paxlovid could be an effective and economical approach to mitigate the effects of COVID-19.
Keywords: COVID-19; Paxlovid; SARS-CoV-2; SARS-CoV-2 transmission; United States; coronavirus disease; mathematical model; public health impact; respiratory infections; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; treatment; viruses; zoonoses.