tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Emerg Infect Dis
. 2020 Nov;26(11):2669-2677.
doi: 10.3201/eid2611.200448.
Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of Influenza Epidemics in Local Settings, Sweden, 2008-2019
Armin Spreco, Olle Eriksson, ?rjan Dahlstr?m, Benjamin John Cowling, Matthew Biggerstaff, Gunnar Ljunggren, Anna J?ud, Emanuel Istefan, Toomas Timpka
Abstract
The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008-February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011-12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was satisfactory for influenza seasons in 2 of the counties but poor in 1 county. Local influenza nowcasting was satisfactory for seasonal influenza in 2 of 3 counties. The less satisfactory performance in 1 of the study counties might be attributable to population mixing with a neighboring metropolitan area.
Keywords: Sweden; epidemiology; evaluation research; human influenza; infectious disease; influenza; modelling; respiratory diseases; respiratory infections; signal detection analysis; surveillance; vaccine-preventable diseases; viruses.
. 2020 Nov;26(11):2669-2677.
doi: 10.3201/eid2611.200448.
Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of Influenza Epidemics in Local Settings, Sweden, 2008-2019
Armin Spreco, Olle Eriksson, ?rjan Dahlstr?m, Benjamin John Cowling, Matthew Biggerstaff, Gunnar Ljunggren, Anna J?ud, Emanuel Istefan, Toomas Timpka
- PMID: 33079036
- DOI: 10.3201/eid2611.200448
Abstract
The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008-February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011-12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was satisfactory for influenza seasons in 2 of the counties but poor in 1 county. Local influenza nowcasting was satisfactory for seasonal influenza in 2 of 3 counties. The less satisfactory performance in 1 of the study counties might be attributable to population mixing with a neighboring metropolitan area.
Keywords: Sweden; epidemiology; evaluation research; human influenza; infectious disease; influenza; modelling; respiratory diseases; respiratory infections; signal detection analysis; surveillance; vaccine-preventable diseases; viruses.