tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Emerg Infect Dis
. 2021 Jan 4;27(2).
doi: 10.3201/eid2702.202999. Online ahead of print.
Excess Deaths during Influenza and Coronavirus Disease and Infection-Fatality Rate for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, the Netherlands
Liselotte van Asten, Carel N Harmsen, Lenny Stoeldraijer, Don Klinkenberg, Anne C Teirlinck, Marit de Lange, Adam Meijer, Jan van de Kassteele, Arianne B van Gageldonk-Lafeber, Susan van den Hof, Wim van der Hoek
Abstract
Since the 2009 influenza pandemic, the Netherlands has used a weekly death monitoring system to estimate deaths in excess of expectations. We present estimates of excess deaths during the ongoing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic and 10 previous influenza epidemics. Excess deaths per influenza epidemic averaged 4,000. The estimated 9,554 excess deaths (41% in excess) during the COVID-19 epidemic weeks 12-19 of 2020 appeared comparable to the 9,373 excess deaths (18%) during the severe influenza epidemic of 2017-18. However, these deaths occurred in a shorter time, had a higher peak, and were mitigated by nonpharmaceutical control measures. Excess deaths were 1.8-fold higher than reported laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths (5,449). Based on excess deaths and preliminary results from seroepidemiologic studies, we estimated the infection-fatality rate to be 1%. Monitoring of excess deaths is crucial for timely estimates of disease burden for influenza and COVID-19. Our data complement laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 death reports and enable comparisons between epidemics.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus; coronavirus disease; epidemics; excess deaths; infection-fatality rate; influenza; influenza viruses; mortality; mortality rate; respiratory infections; seasonality; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; surveillance; the Netherlands; time series; trends; viruses; zoonoses.
. 2021 Jan 4;27(2).
doi: 10.3201/eid2702.202999. Online ahead of print.
Excess Deaths during Influenza and Coronavirus Disease and Infection-Fatality Rate for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, the Netherlands
Liselotte van Asten, Carel N Harmsen, Lenny Stoeldraijer, Don Klinkenberg, Anne C Teirlinck, Marit de Lange, Adam Meijer, Jan van de Kassteele, Arianne B van Gageldonk-Lafeber, Susan van den Hof, Wim van der Hoek
- PMID: 33395381
- DOI: 10.3201/eid2702.202999
Abstract
Since the 2009 influenza pandemic, the Netherlands has used a weekly death monitoring system to estimate deaths in excess of expectations. We present estimates of excess deaths during the ongoing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic and 10 previous influenza epidemics. Excess deaths per influenza epidemic averaged 4,000. The estimated 9,554 excess deaths (41% in excess) during the COVID-19 epidemic weeks 12-19 of 2020 appeared comparable to the 9,373 excess deaths (18%) during the severe influenza epidemic of 2017-18. However, these deaths occurred in a shorter time, had a higher peak, and were mitigated by nonpharmaceutical control measures. Excess deaths were 1.8-fold higher than reported laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths (5,449). Based on excess deaths and preliminary results from seroepidemiologic studies, we estimated the infection-fatality rate to be 1%. Monitoring of excess deaths is crucial for timely estimates of disease burden for influenza and COVID-19. Our data complement laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 death reports and enable comparisons between epidemics.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus; coronavirus disease; epidemics; excess deaths; infection-fatality rate; influenza; influenza viruses; mortality; mortality rate; respiratory infections; seasonality; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; surveillance; the Netherlands; time series; trends; viruses; zoonoses.