tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Emerg Infect Dis
. 2022 May 31;28(7).
doi: 10.3201/eid2807.220033. Online ahead of print.
Analyzing and Modeling the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Lineages BA.1 and BA.2, France, September 2021-February 2022
Mircea T Sofonea, Bénédicte Roquebert, Vincent Foulongne, David Morquin, Laura Verdurme, Sabine Trombert-Paolantoni, Mathilde Roussel, Jean-Christophe Bonetti, Judith Zerah, Stéphanie Haim-Boukobza, Samuel Alizon
Abstract
We analyzed 324,734 SARS-CoV-2 variant screening tests from France enriched with 16,973 whole-genome sequences sampled during September 1, 2021-February 28, 2022. Results showed the estimated growth advantage of the Omicron variant over the Delta variant to be 105% (95% CI 96%-114%) and that of the BA.2 lineage over the BA.1 lineage to be 49% (95% CI 44%-52%). Quantitative PCR cycle threshold values were consistent with an increased ability of Omicron to generate breakthrough infections. Epidemiologic modeling shows that, in spite of its decreased virulence, the Omicron variant can generate important critical COVID-19 activity in hospitals in France. The magnitude of the BA.2 wave in hospitals depends on the level of relaxing of control measures but remains lower than that of BA.1 in median scenarios.
Keywords: BA.1; BA.2; COVID-19; France; Omicron; PCR; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus disease; epidemiology; genomics; mass screening; mutation; respiratory infections; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; vaccine-preventable diseases; variants; viruses; zoonoses.
. 2022 May 31;28(7).
doi: 10.3201/eid2807.220033. Online ahead of print.
Analyzing and Modeling the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Lineages BA.1 and BA.2, France, September 2021-February 2022
Mircea T Sofonea, Bénédicte Roquebert, Vincent Foulongne, David Morquin, Laura Verdurme, Sabine Trombert-Paolantoni, Mathilde Roussel, Jean-Christophe Bonetti, Judith Zerah, Stéphanie Haim-Boukobza, Samuel Alizon
- PMID: 35642476
- DOI: 10.3201/eid2807.220033
Abstract
We analyzed 324,734 SARS-CoV-2 variant screening tests from France enriched with 16,973 whole-genome sequences sampled during September 1, 2021-February 28, 2022. Results showed the estimated growth advantage of the Omicron variant over the Delta variant to be 105% (95% CI 96%-114%) and that of the BA.2 lineage over the BA.1 lineage to be 49% (95% CI 44%-52%). Quantitative PCR cycle threshold values were consistent with an increased ability of Omicron to generate breakthrough infections. Epidemiologic modeling shows that, in spite of its decreased virulence, the Omicron variant can generate important critical COVID-19 activity in hospitals in France. The magnitude of the BA.2 wave in hospitals depends on the level of relaxing of control measures but remains lower than that of BA.1 in median scenarios.
Keywords: BA.1; BA.2; COVID-19; France; Omicron; PCR; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus disease; epidemiology; genomics; mass screening; mutation; respiratory infections; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; vaccine-preventable diseases; variants; viruses; zoonoses.