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EGYPT - MoH - ca. 2300 sus cases to date in Egypt

Theresa42

Well-known member
According to this report, to date there have been ca. 2300 sus cases in Egypt. That is people with flu-like symptoms + contact with sick/dead poultry who have been hospitalized & tested for bf. This number does not appear to includes poultry workers and other people with no symptoms who have been tested as a precaution....

Machine-translated from Arabic:

The Ministry of Health: 2300 suspicions by the bird flu and the certain injuries are 20
Feb 13, 2007

Cairo - An official report revealed the rise of number of the human cases the suspect in its injury by the bird flu virus until Monday to about 2300 persons, and she the conditions that have been isolated in the different hospitals in 25 governorates in them the disease appeared until now.

And the report issued by the Ministry of Health and Population confirmed that Kafr El Sheikh Governate headed the suspect conditions list, where the admission of 340 persons -- then Monofiya [Al Minufiyah] took place and the admission of 272 persons doubtful about their injury took place -- and the western [Al Gharbiyah] is 267 persons -- and Cairo 262 persons -- and two [governorates] Giza governorate and Walqliweba [Al Qalyubiyah] where the detention of 207 conditions took place in each of them.

And the conditions ended suspect of their injury by the virus in Al Fayyum Governate to 102 case -- and Suhaj is 113 case -- and Damietta 136 and Alexandria is 82 -- and Bani Suwayf is 90 -- and Dakahlia [Ad Daqahliyah] is 44 -- and Al Bhira [Al Buhayrah] 38 -- and the eastern one [Ash Sharqiyah] is 27 -- and Qina 23 case.

And she came at the end the list of the conditions suspect of its injury by the bird flu virus and have been isolated in the hospitals Aswan governorates where the admission of 14 conditions took place -- and Ismailia 6 -- and Luxor is 8 -- and Asyut 4 -- and Port Said is 3 -- and the governorates of the Red Sea and South Sinai where the admission of two conditions took place to each of them -- and Suez and Al-Wadi Al-Jadid are a single condition in each of them, while the governorates of North Sinai and Morsi were still thrown free from the disease until now.

And the report explained that the conditions that show the positivity of their injury by the disease are 20 case from Al-Qalyubia governorates and Monofiya [Al Minufiyah] and the western one [Al Gharbiyah], Kafr Al-Sheikh, Al Fayyum and Bani Suwayf and Minya and Suhaj, from them 12 case until now between them was dead 11 women fixed their mixing to house birds injured by the virus and a death happened to some of her.

And the report pointed out that the death cases are by the disease and the reaching 12 case, from them 9 case in Al Sadr's hospitals and the fevers in Cairo alone was dead, while the hospitals of Giza, Al Fayyum and Minya witnessed the death of a single condition in each of them.

And drew that all remaining positive cases alive and reaching 8 case their condition improved and have been recovered totally after their submission for the treatment and its giving Al Tamiflou drug, as it mentioned Al-Masri Newspaper today.

And the regional office of the average east in the World Health Organization organizes an expanded conference today in Cairo around the coordination of communication in case of an epidemic to the bird flu virus, and the epidemics fighting officials participate in the conference that is held throughout three days from all the world regions, where they present a great question he: How do we face the bird flu disease in its change condition to an international human epidemic?

And a clarification of the organization hinted that the conference discusses the better recorded exercises in the field of the communication by the public opinion through the epidemics eruption periods, especially to the social mobilization, including the society sectors and its individuals contributes to the making a success of the plans of the confrontation of the epidemic.

And the statement stressed that the transparency and the clarity are one of dimensions the media and communicative sound confrontation to the side of other dimensions with superior importance that the conference including the confidence building covers, as the credibility and the terms selection allergy are for the achievement of the education target without the fall in the stigma claws and for the increase of awareness without causing the panic, and the speaking by by a single sound.. She is basic elements in the achievement of an effective media during the eruption of epidemics.

Was doctor Hatem mountain the Minister of Health and Population has met a delegation from the organization Sunday with the target of the evaluation of Egypt plan for the confrontation of bird flu, and the recognition of its change scenario to an epidemic, and the plans of the specific governorates and the responsible authorities toward that.

http://www.masrawy.com/News/2007/Egypt/Politics/February/13/birdflu.aspx
 
Re: EGYPT - MoH - ca. 2300 sus cases to date in Egypt

Wow. The Egyptian government is certainly practicing due diligence, at least hypothetically. Now are the tests reliable and is NAMRU-3 on the case? If so, then they have been/are busy too.

I am (pleasantly) surprised that a government source would divulge this information. Makes one wonder, if 2300 suspected cases of H5N1 were to crop up in, say, Texas or Nebraska, would the information be as forthcoming?

Note the last paragraph. Does everyone read that the way I do? That the central government in Cairo is preparing to declare an H5N1 epidemic among humans in Egypt?

THAT would be big.
 
Re: EGYPT - MoH - ca. 2300 sus cases to date in Egypt

I am leery of all machine translations. It could mean they are checking everyone with any flu-like symptoms as possible H5N1 patients. A wise decision as the window of efficacy with Tamiflu is exceedingly narrow. Not just for the infected but for anyone who has come into contact with the affected individual. We really need someone who can read and translate the original into English. Or, failing that, be very alert for a sudden migration of WHO personnel into Egypt.
 
Re: EGYPT - MoH - ca. 2300 sus cases to date in Egypt

....Note the last paragraph. Does everyone read that the way I do? That the central government in Cairo is preparing to declare an H5N1 epidemic among humans in Egypt?

THAT would be big.

Shannon is correct that machine translations are very suspect. When looking at high suspected case numbers (such as 2300 from Egypt), it is necessary to consider government transparency. These suspected Egyptian cases are being reported in news article that are available for our scrutiny.

Similarly, news reports on suspected cases are regularly reported in the Indonesian press (as evidenced by the Indonesian threads) and also reported by the government in Thailand (http://thaigcd.ddc.moph.go.th/AI_case_report_070213.html).

There are countries which are not reporting any suspected human cases even though avian influenza is present in poultry and human cases have been reported in the past from those countries. The differential distribution of suspected cases that we are seeing is not yet the start of a pandemic, but a function of transparency, news reporting, and governmental control of information.

Once suspected cases morph into confirmed cases, and confirmed cases are multiplying (and many are dying), then it will be time to reconsider the question of a local epidemic.
 
Re: EGYPT - MoH - ca. 2300 sus cases to date in Egypt

I completely agree with the opinions on machine translations. They can be wrongly interpreted. Clearly Egypt is doing the responsible thing by testing all who report flu symptoms. Wish that practice was more widespread.

I also agree we need to coltivate some Egyptian posters or, failing that, people who can understand the native Arabic dialect there.

I agree with Shannon that we must "follow the money/Tamiflu/WHO" into Egypt. As Al said, the transparency there is evident in news reports. Thank goodness.
 
Re: EGYPT - MoH - ca. 2300 sus cases to date in Egypt

Was doctor Hatem mountain the Minister of Health and Population has met a delegation from the organization Sunday with the target of the evaluation of Egypt plan for the confrontation of bird flu, and the recognition of its change scenario to an epidemic, and the plans of the specific governorates and the responsible authorities toward that.


This is the sentence that catches my eye.
 
Re: EGYPT - MoH - ca. 2300 sus cases to date in Egypt

I am leery of all machine translations. It could mean they are checking everyone with any flu-like symptoms as possible H5N1 patients. A wise decision as the window of efficacy with Tamiflu is exceedingly narrow. Not just for the infected but for anyone who has come into contact with the affected individual. We really need someone who can read and translate the original into English. Or, failing that, be very alert for a sudden migration of WHO personnel into Egypt.
I agree -- machine-translations are a problem. [*pulls hair out here!* ;) ]

But, these 2300 sus cases are not anyone with flu-like symptoms -- a sus case in Egypt is anyone with flu-like symptoms that has been in contact with sick/dead chickens and/or an H5N1 confirmed person:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=64519&postcount=3

All of these 2300 people have been hospitalized at some point. Note the first sentence:
An official report revealed the rise of number of the human cases the suspect in its injury by the bird flu virus until Monday to about 2300 persons, and she the conditions that have been isolated in the different hospitals in 25 governorates in them the disease appeared until now.

The number (and this was a shocker to me) does not include those people without symptoms who have been tested just as a precautionary measure (i.e. poultry workers or other people who have been in contact with sick/dead chickens but who didn't have any flu symptoms). Egypt has done a lot of pro-active testing like that (don't know what sort-of tests, though -- possibly/probably rapid tests).

Oh -- and these 2300 sus cases are to date -- i.e. from when bf was first detected in Egypt in Feb 2006. It's certainly not current cases!

(Note that for this article I used the machine-translator at sakhr.com which is a much better translator than the Google one. Sakhr.com is an Egyptian site, so its machine-translator is much more finely attuned to Egyptian Arabic. I try to use sakhr for important articles whenever I can.)
 
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Re: EGYPT - MoH - ca. 2300 sus cases to date in Egypt

Wow. The Egyptian government is certainly practicing due diligence, at least hypothetically. Now are the tests reliable and is NAMRU-3 on the case? If so, then they have been/are busy too.
Yeah, I dunno. That's my question, too -- has NAMRU tested all these people? Not to be too critical of the Egyptian Minitry of Health testing, but they weren't able to confirm Nouri Nadi -- they got a negative for her while NAMRU confirmed. I wonder if all these 2300 have been double-checked? (I doubt it....)
Note the last paragraph. Does everyone read that the way I do? That the central government in Cairo is preparing to declare an H5N1 epidemic among humans in Egypt?
Yeah, I read it that way as well. There have been rumblings in the press about this for the last couple of weeks -- since the Tamiflu-resistant strain news broke. At first I thought they were talking about the epidemic in birds, but apparently not. They do mean an epidemic in people....
 
Re: EGYPT - MoH - ca. 2300 sus cases to date in Egypt

Note that the timing of the release of this report (on the ca. 2300 sus cases) coincides with the WHO bird flu conference happening in Cairo at the moment:

WHO conference in Cairo on bird flu
13/2/2007

A World Health Organisation (WHO) conference on bird flu opens Tuesday in Cairo under the auspices of Minister of Health and Population Dr. Hatem El-Gabali.

The conference, which is organised by the WHO regional office for East Mediterranean, will focus on means to coordinate efforts of combating the avian flu.

Dr. Ibrahim El-Kerdani, a WHO spokesman, said the conference will be attended by health officials from all over the world.

The bird flu virus first emerged in Egypt in February of last year before receding in April.

The H5N1 strain of the virus re-emerged in Egypt this winter.

Three more suspected human cases of bird flu were tested Monday for the deadly virus at Qena's Fever Hospital in Upper Egypt.

http://birdflu.sis.gov.eg/html/flu01021146.htm
 
Re: EGYPT - MoH - ca. 2300 sus cases to date in Egypt

What stands out to me is the low mortality rate, if this is indeed H5N1. That doesn't fit any previous statistics. What would take it from epidemic to pandemic in this situation? Thank you for all of your dedication and information.
 
Re: EGYPT - MoH - ca. 2300 sus cases to date in Egypt

What stands out to me is the low mortality rate, if this is indeed H5N1. That doesn't fit any previous statistics. What would take it from epidemic to pandemic in this situation? Thank you for all of your dedication and information.
Well, the mortality rate so far has been 12 out of 20 confirmed cases so that's -- what? -- a 60% CFR? (There's now a 21st case, of course, but she hasn't recovered or -- hopefully not -- died yet.)

The concern lately in Egypt is that during this flu season (since Oct 2006) the CFR has been 100% -- 6 out of 6 confirmed cases have died -- although now, of course, we have a 7th confirmed case this season. That's different from last year.

Also, the Tamiflu resistant strain which popped up in three of the cases this season was not good news.
 
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Re: EGYPT - MoH - ca. 2300 sus cases to date in Egypt

What stands out to me is the low mortality rate, if this is indeed H5N1. That doesn't fit any previous statistics. What would take it from epidemic to pandemic in this situation? Thank you for all of your dedication and information.

The low mortality rate suggests to me that almost all of these cases are not H5N1. The currrent CFR for all WHO confirmed H5N1 cases in Egypt is 60%. Extrapolating, there would be a minimum of 1000 deaths among the 2300 suspected cases. The lack of deaths and lack of confirmed cases from the pool of suspected cases implies that the epidemic has not yet arrived in Egypt.
 
Re: EGYPT - MoH - ca. 2300 sus cases to date in Egypt

LaidbackAl said:
The low mortality rate suggests to me that almost all of these cases are not H5N1.
Well, unfortunately, we don't actually know the outcome of most of these 2300 cases. We're assuming they're probably all ok (and do I think that is a safe assumption) -- but we don't actually know for sure from the one news report. The news article just said that there had been 2300 sus cases reported.

I'd like to see the original MoH report -- can't find it anywhere (yet) though.
 
Re: EGYPT - MoH - ca. 2300 sus cases to date in Egypt

We wait with baited breath for the report, Theresa. I, along with most of those at FT, am concerned but not frantic. I know you are keenly sifting through the news wires and other sources for additional information.
 
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