sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Is any of this on the TV there yet?
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Is any of this on the TV there yet?
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EGYPT - Jan 2 - Jan 4, 2008
- Thread starter Theresa42
- Start date
- Status
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Agriculture: bird flu spread in the farm more rural homes .. And 25 new infections in December
Books Mitwalli Salem 2/1/2008
A report issued by the Ministry of Agriculture yesterday, the surprise was the high numbers of cases of avian influenza disease in poultry farms are more than their counterparts in rural education, and 90% of farms Fattening and whiting business is not by the rules of safety are vital and dangerous for the health and lead to the spread of diseases epidemics faster than control procedures, which is a dangerous precedent change of plan to combat the disease.
The official report issued by the General Authority for Veterinary Services, the number of hotbeds of avian influenza disease in poultry farms during the month of December last year amounted to 25 hotbed topped the Eastern Province in the number of hotbeds of infection with 8 points and then West number 6 hotbeds Vakulaiobh rate of 3 wells injury Avian then followed Menoufiya, Dakahliya things at each one in each of the governorates of Cairo, Beni Suef, Qena and Giza.
A report, which maintains ?Egyptian today? copy of it that the total of what had been executed in poultry farms infected poultry reached almost 600 thousand and 499 flying them 550 thousand bird Eastern Province.
The number of positive cases of the disease education home during the same month to 8 cases including 3 cases of brown and two Bakulaiobh, western and one case of the Cairo governorate and the number of birds that have been destroyed education in this household governorates 1599 flying.
The report attributed the high number of cases of avian influenza disease in poultry farms to random establishment of the farms without regard any of the conditions of the vital safety, especially preventive dimension between the farmer and each other.
The report also uncovered that 90% of farms Fattening and whiting is not by any factors vital safety and adjacent to each other, or a few meters from each other and become mostly adjacent to houses, or houses built in a primitive.
The report pointed out that commercial farms mothers whiting and Fattening, which belong to large companies, does it lack many safety factors vital and much of it was originally either blank or fattening farms were changed to the production of active mothers fattening or blank business.
The report drew the General Authority for Veterinary Services to major farms and poultry farms supplied apply many of the vital safety conditions, but managed a technical professional own devices, and allows up government.
The report said that 20% of the poultry farms applicable safety regulations and requirements of animal veterinary organization to work in the poultry production, and veterinary authority, not only technical management and recommends only the application of health conditions, both dimension and preventive safety or vital in the case of a pandemic recommends closure of the farm or veterinary quarantine without that have executive powers.
http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=88605
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Agriculture: bird flu spread in the farm more rural homes .. And 25 new infections in December
Books Mitwalli Salem 2/1/2008
A report issued by the Ministry of Agriculture yesterday, the surprise was the high numbers of cases of avian influenza disease in poultry farms are more than their counterparts in rural education, and 90% of farms Fattening and whiting business is not by the rules of safety are vital and dangerous for the health and lead to the spread of diseases epidemics faster than control procedures, which is a dangerous precedent change of plan to combat the disease.
The official report issued by the General Authority for Veterinary Services, the number of hotbeds of avian influenza disease in poultry farms during the month of December last year amounted to 25 hotbed topped the Eastern Province in the number of hotbeds of infection with 8 points and then West number 6 hotbeds Vakulaiobh rate of 3 wells injury Avian then followed Menoufiya, Dakahliya things at each one in each of the governorates of Cairo, Beni Suef, Qena and Giza.
A report, which maintains ?Egyptian today? copy of it that the total of what had been executed in poultry farms infected poultry reached almost 600 thousand and 499 flying them 550 thousand bird Eastern Province.
The number of positive cases of the disease education home during the same month to 8 cases including 3 cases of brown and two Bakulaiobh, western and one case of the Cairo governorate and the number of birds that have been destroyed education in this household governorates 1599 flying.
The report attributed the high number of cases of avian influenza disease in poultry farms to random establishment of the farms without regard any of the conditions of the vital safety, especially preventive dimension between the farmer and each other.
The report also uncovered that 90% of farms Fattening and whiting is not by any factors vital safety and adjacent to each other, or a few meters from each other and become mostly adjacent to houses, or houses built in a primitive.
The report pointed out that commercial farms mothers whiting and Fattening, which belong to large companies, does it lack many safety factors vital and much of it was originally either blank or fattening farms were changed to the production of active mothers fattening or blank business.
The report drew the General Authority for Veterinary Services to major farms and poultry farms supplied apply many of the vital safety conditions, but managed a technical professional own devices, and allows up government.
The report said that 20% of the poultry farms applicable safety regulations and requirements of animal veterinary organization to work in the poultry production, and veterinary authority, not only technical management and recommends only the application of health conditions, both dimension and preventive safety or vital in the case of a pandemic recommends closure of the farm or veterinary quarantine without that have executive powers.
http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=88605
Theresa42
Well-known member
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=47258
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
I would think yes. The statement yesterday by the Minister of Agriculture that his ministry didn't take enough action against bf in the last few months was during a television interview:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=47258
Theresa42
Well-known member
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Schoolteacher -- or his birds -- tested negative. The headline reads that "influenza did not kill teacher Cairo" but the negative report comes from the Directorate of Veterinary Medicine, not the Ministry of Health. ??
Google-translated from Arabic:
The seizure and execution 3778 chickens in Giza, influenza did not kill teacher Cairo
2/1/2008
Security forces chased the car loaded Giza birds, and seized 3778 chickens alive in the 3 car seizures were executed by veterinary inside Cemetery healthy -- comes in the framework of the follow-up to the spread of avian influenza virus in Cairo confirmed the Directorate of Veterinary Medicine negative sample for teacher suspected in the death of his family Avian.
Major General Mohsen mandated operations assistant minister for security officers Giza Giza to control the outlets for the transfer of live birds, and prevent the unauthorized transfer to curb the spread of the disease, were seized 1000 chickens Balorac, the commander of the car he brought from Dakahlia and seized 1370 chickens loaded in trucks at six been seized 700 chickens to the seller was seized 8 chickens with the seller, and liberated the records of the facts of seizure and notify the Directorate of Veterinary Medicine.
http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=88591
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Schoolteacher -- or his birds -- tested negative. The headline reads that "influenza did not kill teacher Cairo" but the negative report comes from the Directorate of Veterinary Medicine, not the Ministry of Health. ??
Google-translated from Arabic:
The seizure and execution 3778 chickens in Giza, influenza did not kill teacher Cairo
2/1/2008
Security forces chased the car loaded Giza birds, and seized 3778 chickens alive in the 3 car seizures were executed by veterinary inside Cemetery healthy -- comes in the framework of the follow-up to the spread of avian influenza virus in Cairo confirmed the Directorate of Veterinary Medicine negative sample for teacher suspected in the death of his family Avian.
Major General Mohsen mandated operations assistant minister for security officers Giza Giza to control the outlets for the transfer of live birds, and prevent the unauthorized transfer to curb the spread of the disease, were seized 1000 chickens Balorac, the commander of the car he brought from Dakahlia and seized 1370 chickens loaded in trucks at six been seized 700 chickens to the seller was seized 8 chickens with the seller, and liberated the records of the facts of seizure and notify the Directorate of Veterinary Medicine.
http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=88591
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Somehow I had a feeling that this would be a negative, one way or another.
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Do you use a crystal ball or are you naturally clairvoyant?
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Do you use a crystal ball or are you naturally clairvoyant?
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
The teacher represents a tipping point.Do you use a crystal ball or are you naturally clairvoyant?
AlaskaDenise
In Memoriam
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Two Suspect H5N1 Familial Clusters in Sharquia Egypt
Recombinomics Commentary 11:31
January 2, 2008
AIn Sharkia in the eastern Nile Delta, health officials quarantined four citizens for suspected symptoms of bird flu in Sharkia Contagious Disease Hospital.
They were identified as 3-year-old Menah Mohamed Fathi, her grandmother, 55-year-old Samia el-Sayed Awad, and 25-year-old Iman Sobhi and her son, Mohamed Maher Reda.
This came as the health and population ministry declared a maximum state of emergency following the death of three new victims in less than 30 hours.
The above translation describes the hospitalization of four suspect bird flu cases, representing two familial clusters in Sharquia. These suspect familial clusters are in addition to the four person cluster in Port Said and the two member cluster in Menoufia. At least two more suspect patients were hospitalized in Qualubiya, where a health care worker is also hospitalized (see satellite map).
Although Egypt has had many suspect H5N1 cases in the past, the cases usually peak in late winter / early spring. As noted above, the recent confirmed fatalities and declaration of a maximum state of emergency may have contributed to the number of hospitalized suspect cases. However, the number of H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry farms and backyard holdings is exploding, with 25 new outbreaks recently announced.
In addition, one of the recent suspect patients has died (43M) as has one of the suspect patients (26F), who was subsequently confirmed H5N1 positive.
Updated lab data on the hospitalized patients, and sequence data from the confirmed patients would be useful.
.
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Commentary
Two Suspect H5N1 Familial Clusters in Sharquia Egypt
Recombinomics Commentary 11:31
January 2, 2008
AIn Sharkia in the eastern Nile Delta, health officials quarantined four citizens for suspected symptoms of bird flu in Sharkia Contagious Disease Hospital.
They were identified as 3-year-old Menah Mohamed Fathi, her grandmother, 55-year-old Samia el-Sayed Awad, and 25-year-old Iman Sobhi and her son, Mohamed Maher Reda.
This came as the health and population ministry declared a maximum state of emergency following the death of three new victims in less than 30 hours.
The above translation describes the hospitalization of four suspect bird flu cases, representing two familial clusters in Sharquia. These suspect familial clusters are in addition to the four person cluster in Port Said and the two member cluster in Menoufia. At least two more suspect patients were hospitalized in Qualubiya, where a health care worker is also hospitalized (see satellite map).
Although Egypt has had many suspect H5N1 cases in the past, the cases usually peak in late winter / early spring. As noted above, the recent confirmed fatalities and declaration of a maximum state of emergency may have contributed to the number of hospitalized suspect cases. However, the number of H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry farms and backyard holdings is exploding, with 25 new outbreaks recently announced.
In addition, one of the recent suspect patients has died (43M) as has one of the suspect patients (26F), who was subsequently confirmed H5N1 positive.
Updated lab data on the hospitalized patients, and sequence data from the confirmed patients would be useful.
.
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
I think it is useful to look at cases from a risk / reward basis. If the birds tested negative and it is been several days since the teacher died, there is little risk in declaring him negative. However there is a major reward, since a positive would have tipped the scales well into the panic mode.
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
I think there was only one death. I think the translation simply said he didn't die from avian influenza (but it is unclear if that was based on his test or tests of the birds.
I think it is useful to look at cases from a risk / reward basis. If the birds tested negative and it is been several days since the teacher died, there is little risk in declaring him negative. However there is a major reward, since a positive would have tipped the scales well into the panic mode.
AlaskaDenise
In Memoriam
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
H5N1 Spread on Farms and Backyard Holdings in Egypt
Recombinomics Commentary 12:24
January 2, 2008
more prevalent among birds in poultry farms rather than birds bread domestically. The report, complied by the Public Authority for Veterinary Services, said 25 new outbreaks were detected in Sharkia, Gharbia, Qalyubia, Menoufia, Dakahlia, Cairo, Qena, Beni Suef and Giza.
The report concluded that 90% of the poultry farms fell behind considerably in a number of biological safety benchmarks, which threatens to make it easier for the disease to spread.
The above translation describe some of H5N1 outbreaks reported in recent days in Egypt. The comments confirm earlier reports of H5N1 in backyard holdings and commercial poultry (see satellite map). However, the above comments indicate the infections are more prevalent on the commercial farms, where vaccinations would be expected to be more complete.
Recent H5N1 outbreaks in Europe and Saudi Arabia raised the possibility of increased infections in Egypt, but the vaccination program was implemented to blunt the spread.
The explosion of poultry H5N1 cases provides some rationale for the high number of confirmed and suspect cases, but the cases reported to date are not farm workers, raising the possibility that the H5N1 in Egypt is more efficiently transmitted to humans. Although there have been no confirmed familial clusters this season, there are suspect clusters in Menoufia, Port Said, and Sharquia.
Updated data on the suspect cases and release of sequences fro the confirmed cases, would be useful.
.
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Commentary
H5N1 Spread on Farms and Backyard Holdings in Egypt
Recombinomics Commentary 12:24
January 2, 2008
more prevalent among birds in poultry farms rather than birds bread domestically. The report, complied by the Public Authority for Veterinary Services, said 25 new outbreaks were detected in Sharkia, Gharbia, Qalyubia, Menoufia, Dakahlia, Cairo, Qena, Beni Suef and Giza.
The report concluded that 90% of the poultry farms fell behind considerably in a number of biological safety benchmarks, which threatens to make it easier for the disease to spread.
The above translation describe some of H5N1 outbreaks reported in recent days in Egypt. The comments confirm earlier reports of H5N1 in backyard holdings and commercial poultry (see satellite map). However, the above comments indicate the infections are more prevalent on the commercial farms, where vaccinations would be expected to be more complete.
Recent H5N1 outbreaks in Europe and Saudi Arabia raised the possibility of increased infections in Egypt, but the vaccination program was implemented to blunt the spread.
The explosion of poultry H5N1 cases provides some rationale for the high number of confirmed and suspect cases, but the cases reported to date are not farm workers, raising the possibility that the H5N1 in Egypt is more efficiently transmitted to humans. Although there have been no confirmed familial clusters this season, there are suspect clusters in Menoufia, Port Said, and Sharquia.
Updated data on the suspect cases and release of sequences fro the confirmed cases, would be useful.
.
Commonground
Senior Moderator
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Please see Post #31 for Dr. Nimans explanation.
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Please see Post #31 for Dr. Nimans explanation.
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
The teacher died Saturday, so H5N1 confirmation would make 5 fatalities within a week. Moreover, a teacher with a backyard holding in Cairo matchjes a lot of people in Cairo, so the death of a 43 year old teacher alone would set off alarm bells.
Without the teacher, there is still a chance that the fifth case will recover, as will some of the suspect cases. A few recoveries will even out the scales, instead of almost all dying in short order.
Risk / reward ratio is heavily slanted toward a negative. Negatives are VERY easy to generate and getting a positive frequently requires a few tries. Those who would like a negative need to only try once (and use the chicken data to confirm a negative).
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Here is a quick rundown. Many agencies spend more time on controling information than controling H5N1. The tipping point refers to panic. One measure is ProMed commentaries, which usually dismiss H5N1. They have begun to show concern over Saudi Arabia and Egypt. For Egypt, they began to worry with the 3rd death (and were hoping the clustering was a statistical abberation).
The teacher died Saturday, so H5N1 confirmation would make 5 fatalities within a week. Moreover, a teacher with a backyard holding in Cairo matchjes a lot of people in Cairo, so the death of a 43 year old teacher alone would set off alarm bells.
Without the teacher, there is still a chance that the fifth case will recover, as will some of the suspect cases. A few recoveries will even out the scales, instead of almost all dying in short order.
Risk / reward ratio is heavily slanted toward a negative. Negatives are VERY easy to generate and getting a positive frequently requires a few tries. Those who would like a negative need to only try once (and use the chicken data to confirm a negative).
Gnosis
Well-known member
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
They have always assuaged fear and allowed the "authorities" and Govcorp to poo-poo the true growth and spread of H5N1.
The results would be different with proper testing and collection protocol adherence.
Until then I guess I should feel good about the wind blown up my skirt.
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
They have always assuaged fear and allowed the "authorities" and Govcorp to poo-poo the true growth and spread of H5N1.
The results would be different with proper testing and collection protocol adherence.
Until then I guess I should feel good about the wind blown up my skirt.
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Tighten procedures to besiege bird flu <!heade><TABLE style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; text-direction: ltr" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffec border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=right bgColor=#ffffec colSpan=5></TD></TR><TR><TD align=right bgColor=#ffffec colSpan=5>
http://translate.google.com/transla...=&rls=TSHA,TSHA:2006-07,TSHA:en&sa=G&as_qdr=d
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Tighten procedures to besiege bird flu <!heade><TABLE style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; text-direction: ltr" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffec border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=right bgColor=#ffffec colSpan=5></TD></TR><TR><TD align=right bgColor=#ffffec colSpan=5>
[FONT=arial (arabic)]أكد السيد أمين أباظة وزير الزراعة تشديد الإجراءات الوقائية لاحتواء مرض إنفلونزا الطيور, وإحكام الرقابة علي أسواق بيع الدواجن, ومضاعفة حجم اللقاحات التي تم تجهيزها للمرحلة الثانية التي بدأت15 ديسمبر الماضي, وتستمر حتي منتصف مارس المقبل.[/FONT]
[FONT=arial (arabic)]Mr. Amin Abaza, and Minister of Agriculture tighten preventive measures to contain bird flu, and tighten controls on the sale of poultry markets, and doubling the volume of vaccine that have been processed for the second phase, which began last December 15, and will continue until mid-March.[/FONT]
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>http://translate.google.com/transla...=&rls=TSHA,TSHA:2006-07,TSHA:en&sa=G&as_qdr=d
gsgs
Registered User
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
can we maintain a list here with counts for:
Cases Discussed
Died, no test results
Died, tested positive
Other tested positive
Symptoms, tests pending
Tested negative
Totals
they had this last year at fluwikie, but it seems
that it's discontinued now.
It would be interesting to compare this with last year.
Laidback Al posted a graph some days ago, but I don't know,
where she/he got the data from.
The last one, that I could find was from May 10th 2007:
Updated Summary Table
Egypt Summary - Updated as of 04/10/07 2006 2007
Cases Discussed Jan - Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Total
Died, no test results 0 1 0 0 0 1
Died, tested positive 10 1 2 0 1 4
Other tested positive 8 0 2 9 1 12
Symptoms, tests pending 8 80 68 84 15 247
Tested negative 12 16 17 2 0 35
Totals 38 98 89 95 17 299
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
can we maintain a list here with counts for:
Cases Discussed
Died, no test results
Died, tested positive
Other tested positive
Symptoms, tests pending
Tested negative
Totals
they had this last year at fluwikie, but it seems
that it's discontinued now.
It would be interesting to compare this with last year.
Laidback Al posted a graph some days ago, but I don't know,
where she/he got the data from.
The last one, that I could find was from May 10th 2007:
Updated Summary Table
Egypt Summary - Updated as of 04/10/07 2006 2007
Cases Discussed Jan - Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Total
Died, no test results 0 1 0 0 0 1
Died, tested positive 10 1 2 0 1 4
Other tested positive 8 0 2 9 1 12
Symptoms, tests pending 8 80 68 84 15 247
Tested negative 12 16 17 2 0 35
Totals 38 98 89 95 17 299
Theresa42
Well-known member
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
I've compiled a list of confirmed & suspected cases which is in this thread (it needs to be updated at the moment) -- we could sure use someone to put together a spreadsheet! Unfortunately, I haven't had the time.
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Are you volunteering for the job, gsgs?
I've compiled a list of confirmed & suspected cases which is in this thread (it needs to be updated at the moment) -- we could sure use someone to put together a spreadsheet! Unfortunately, I haven't had the time.
Theresa42
Well-known member
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+
Alternate translation of the paragraph about the teacher:
I think the Veterinary Medicine Department was talking about results on tests from the teacher's birds and not the teach.
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