Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009 - April 9, 2009

[HenryN]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=U...30.794935,30.709534&spn=0.981485,1.540833&z=9

 

[HenryN]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

[WARNING: Google Raw Machine Translation from Arabic to English. Readers can found original article at this link http://www.kuna.net.kw/NewsAgenciesPublicSite/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=1987585&Language=ar - EDITED.]


A spokesman of the Ministry of Health, Dr. Abdel Rahman Shahin said in a statement here today that the onset of symptoms the child was sick at his place of his injury, the lake was discovered during a visit to the house of her mother in one of the villages of Al-Menoufiya.

---

Symptoms of #61 in Menoufiya + symptoms of #62 neighbor in Beheira = H2H.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

We have no idea if this is H2H or a common environmental contagion.

 

[HenryN]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

We have no idea if this is H2H or a common environmental contagion.

Please. One case was infected in Menoufiya and the next door neighbor was infected in Beihera. Coincidences can only be cited a limited number of times, and H5N1 coincidences exceeded the limit many years ago.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

I am not calling it a coincidence. I am saying we do not know.

 

[HenryN]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

I am not calling it a coincidence. I am saying we do not know.

I think something has been lost in the translation. The index case (confirmed case #61) was said by the MOH to have developed symptoms while visiting relatives in Menoufiya, strongly implying that the infection was NOT in Beheira (where I suspect there is a MISSING poultry connection). However, a few days later the toddler NEXT DOOR to the index case's house in Beheira develops symptoms and is confirmed as case #62.

Therefore, to do some hand waving suggesting that some environment contageon is responsible would require that the contageon is in Menoifiya and Beheira and caused an H5N1 infection in Menofiaya and coincidentally infected the index case's neighbor in Beheira a few days later would be a difficult sell.

 

[Diane Morin]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Egyptian boy contracts bird flu

<CITE class=caption>AFP/File – Chickens sit in a farm near Jamasa city, 170 kms north of Cairo. A six-year-old boy has contracted bird … </CITE>
<CITE class=caption></CITE>

<!-- end #main-media -->
<!-- end .primary-media -->
<!-- end .related-media --><ABBR class=recenttimedate title=2009-04-05T11:25:19-0700>6 mins ago</ABBR>
<ABBR class=recenttimedate title=2009-04-05T11:25:19-0700></ABBR>
<!-- end .byline -->CAIRO (AFP) – A six-year-old boy has contracted bird flu, the 63rd recorded case since the first outbreak of the disease in Egypt in 2006 and the third in a week, the health ministry announced on Sunday.

Ali Mahmud Ali from Shubra al-Khaimah, north of Cairo, was hospitalised on March 28 in the Egyptian capital, ministry spokesman Abdel Rahman Shahin said, as cited by state news agency MENA.

The diagnosis came after about a week, he said.

The child is in a serious condition and is being treated with frontline anti-flu drug Tamiflu, Shahin added.

Hassan Gamil Hassan, 21 months old, was hospitalised on Wednesday in the northern province of Beheira with a high fever, while a two-year-old was taken to hospital in Beheira last Monday.

The toddler had been exposed to dead fowl thought to have been infected with the virus.

Twenty-three people have died of bird flu in Egypt. Most of the victims have been young girls or women, who are generally in charge of looking after poultry in rural areas.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) called last month for an investigation into why many of the victims have been young children.
Egypt hosted an international conference on bird flu in October, when Washington pledged an additional 320 million dollars to the fight against the disease amid fears it may yet escalate into a global pandemic.
The H5N1 strain of the virus that is most dangerous to humans first emerged in Asia in 2003 and has since caused nearly 250 deaths, according to WHO figures.

Scientists fear that a mutation of the bird flu virus resulting in a strain easily transmitted among humans could create a pandemic, potentially affecting up to one-fifth of the world's population.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090405/wl_africa_afp/egypthealthflu

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

I think # 61 and # 62 may have both been infected in Beheira from a common vector (human or poultry?) since their symptoms were apparent only 2 days apart.

 

[HenryN]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

I think # 61 and # 62 may have both been infected in Beheira from a common vector (human or poultry?) since their symptoms were apparent only 2 days apart.

Then the visit to Menoufiya is irrelevant (but was included in the MOH statement and associated reports).

 

[HenryN]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04050902/H5N1_Beheira_Cluster.html

 

[HenryN]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

CAIRO, April 5 (Reuters) - A 6-year-old Egyptian boy has contracted the highly pathogenic bird flu virus, the sixth case in a month in the most populous Arab country, state news agency MENA said on Sunday.
MENA named the boy as Ali Mahmoud Ali Somaa, from the Nile Delta province of Qalyubia. His case brings to 63 the number of confirmed cases of the H5N1 avian flu virus in Egypt, which has been hit harder by bird flu than any other country outside of Asia.
Health Ministry spokesman Abdel Rahman Shahine said Somaa started suffering symptoms two weeks ago and was admitted to hospital a week later, where he was treated with the antiviral drug tamiflu, according to MENA.
Somaa is in a critical condition and is breathing with an artificial respirator, MENA said.
On Friday, Egypt reported a 21-month-old boy had contracted bird flu.
Since 2003 the H5N1 avian influenza virus has infected at least 410 people in 15 countries and killed 254 of them. It has killed or forced the culling of more than 300 million birds in 61 countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe.
Some 23 Egyptians have died after contracting the virus, most after coming into contact with infected domestic birds in a country where roughly 5 million households depend on domestically raised poultry as a significant source of food and income.
While H5N1 rarely infects people, experts say they fear it could mutate into a form that people could easily pass to one another, sparking a pandemic that could kill millions. (Writing by Aziz El-Kaissouni)

http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFL525559420090405?feedType=RSS&feedName=egyptNews

 

[SophiaZoe]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

We have no idea if this is H2H or a common environmental contagion.

My thoughts exactly.

I am drawn to the epidemiological similarity of Egypt's current H5N1 and Polio prior to indoor plumbing. I am drawn to the environmental far more than the H2H theory.

Beyond the epidemiological similarity to low viral load polio infection in times of, my question has been: If it is truly a mild H2H2H2H version why are we not seeing it in tourists?

 

[HenryN]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Egyptian boy contracts bird flu
51 minutes ago
CAIRO (AFP) ? A six-year-old boy has contracted bird flu, the 63rd recorded case since the first outbreak of the disease in Egypt in 2006 and the third in a week, the health ministry announced on Sunday.
Ali Mahmud Ali from Shubra al-Khaimah, north of Cairo, was hospitalised on March 28 in the Egyptian capital, ministry spokesman Abdel Rahman Shahin said, as cited by state news agency MENA.
The diagnosis came after about a week, he said.
The child is in a serious condition and is being treated with frontline anti-flu drug Tamiflu, Shahin added.
Hassan Gamil Hassan, 21 months old, was hospitalised on Wednesday in the northern province of Beheira with a high fever, while a two-year-old was taken to hospital in Beheira last Monday.
The toddler had been exposed to dead fowl thought to have been infected with the virus.
Twenty-three people have died of bird flu in Egypt. Most of the victims have been young girls or women, who are generally in charge of looking after poultry in rural areas.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) called last month for an investigation into why many of the victims have been young children.
Egypt hosted an international conference on bird flu in October, when Washington pledged an additional 320 million dollars to the fight against the disease amid fears it may yet escalate into a global pandemic.
The H5N1 strain of the virus that is most dangerous to humans first emerged in Asia in 2003 and has since caused nearly 250 deaths, according to WHO figures.
Scientists fear that a mutation of the bird flu virus resulting in a strain easily transmitted among humans could create a pandemic, potentially affecting up to one-fifth of the world's population.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gbCEqWqaWexquvwkipczR9ef526g

 

[Treyfish]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

<TABLE style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: #e8e8e8 1px solid; DIRECTION: ltr; BORDER-RIGHT: #e8e8e8 1px solid" id=Table10 border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=648 align=center><TBODY><TR><TD width=648 align=middle>Egypt announces 63 human infection with bird flu </TD></TR><TR><TD width=648><TABLE style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; DIRECTION: ltr" border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#000000 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD width="50%" align=right>

<!--date -->

رويترز​

Reuters​

</TD><TD width="50%" align=left>

GMT 17:47:19 2009 الأحد 5 أبريل​

GMT 17:47:19 2009 Sunday, April 5​

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=648 align=middle><HR style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; DIRECTION: ltr" align=center color=#c0c0c0 SIZE=1 width="94%"></TD></TR><TR><TD style="PADDING-LEFT: 20px; PADDING-RIGHT: 20px" vAlign=top width=648><TABLE style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; DIRECTION: ltr" border=0 cellSpacing=4 cellPadding=4 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=story1><TABLE style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; DIRECTION: ltr" border=0 cellSpacing=4 cellPadding=4 width=160 bgColor=#cccccc align=right><TBODY><TR><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

القاهرة (رويترز) - قالت وكالة انباء الشرق الاوسط المصرية يوم الاحد إنه تم اكتشاف الاصابة البشرية رقم 63 بمرض انفلونزا الطيور لطفل من محافظة القليوبية شمال القاهرة.​

CAIRO (Reuters) - An Egyptian news agency MENA on Sunday that it had been no discovery of human infection with bird flu, 63 of the children of the province north of Cairo Qaliubiya.​

​

وقالت الوكالة نقلا عن بيان لوزارة الصحة إن الطفل يدعى على محمود على سمعة ويبلغ من العمر ست سنوات وهو من شبرا الخيمة بمحافظة القليوبية.​

The agency said, quoting a statement from the Ministry of Health that the child named on the reputation of Mahmoud, a six-year-old, one of the Shubra al-Khaimah government to.​

​

واضاف البيان ان بداية ظهور الاعراض على الطفل كانت يوم 22 مارس اذار الماضى ودخل على اثرها مستشفى عين شمس الجامعى يوم 28 مارس وفور الاشتباه فى اصابته بالمرض تم اعطاؤه عقار تاميفلو وحالته الصحية حرجة ويرقد الان على جهاز التنفس الصناعى.​

The statement added that the onset of symptoms the child was on March 22 last March and came to hospital, Ain Shams University on March 28 and immediately after suspected bird flu have been given Tamiflu, and his health condition is critical and is now on a ventilator.​

​

ومصر هي اكثر الدول تضررا بانفلونزا الطيور خارج قارة اسيا.​

Egypt is one of the countries affected by bird flu outside of Asia.

وتوفي حوالي 23 مصريا بعد اصابتهم بالفيروس واغلبهم بعد مخالطة طيور منزلية مصابة في بلد تعتمد فيه خمسة ملايين اسرة تقريبا على الدواجن التي تربى في المنزل كمصدر مهم للطعام والدخل.​

He died about 23 Egyptians have died of the virus after contact with birds, mostly found in the home country adopts the nearly five million households that kept poultry at home as an important source of food and income.​

​

ومنذ عام 2003 اصاب فيروس انفلونزا الطيور 410 اشخاص على الاقل في 15 دولة واودى بحياة 254 منهم.​

Since the 2003 avian flu virus has infected at least 410 people in 15 countries and killed 254 of them.

وادى الى نفوق او اعدام اكثر من 300 مليون طائر في 61 دولة في اسيا والشرق الاوسط وافريقيا واوروبا.​

And led to the deaths or culling of more than 300 million birds in 61 countries in Asia and the Middle East, Africa and Europe.​

​

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>:tiphat:http://translate.google.com/transla...8%A3%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%84+2009&sl=en&tl=ar</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[HenryN]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

My thoughts exactly.

I am drawn to the epidemiological similarity of Egypt's current H5N1 and Polio prior to indoor plumbing. I am drawn to the environmental far more than the H2H theory.

Beyond the epidemiological similarity to low viral load polio infection in times of, my question has been: If it is truly a mild H2H2H2H version why are we not seeing it in tourists?

Next door neighbors is not a coincidence (and the MOH did not mention Menofiyah for case #61 just to fill white space).

 

[Treyfish]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Avian flu in Alexandria

2009-04-05​

2009-04-05

احتجزت مستشفيات فى قنا والمنيا والدقهلية، أمس مواطنين للاشتباه فى إصابتهم بمرض أنفلونزا الطيور، فيما تواصل مباحث التموين بالمحافظات جهودها لضبط محال تجارة الطيور الحية، وأسفرت الحملات عن ضبط 31 محلا بالإسكندرية، فضلاً عن إعدام 412 طائرًا تم ضبطها داخلها.فى قنا احتجز مستشفى الحميات 5 مواطنين للاشتباه فى إصابتهم بالمرض هم: أميمة فتحى ?41 سنة?، ربة منزل، وطفلها أحمد على يعقوب، عامان، وزينب محمود الشنوانى ?40 سنة?، ربة منزل، وسعاد حامد عبدالله، ?40 سنة?، وأميرة عبدالرازق أبو الحسن، ?21 سنة?، ربة منزل، للاشتباه فى إصابتهم بأنفلونزا الطيور بعد ظهور أعراض مشابهة للمرض عليهم."من المصري اليوم"​

Detained in hospital in Qena, Minya, Dakahliya, citizens yesterday on suspicion of bird flu patients, as it continues its efforts GOVERNORATES Investigation of Supply stores to control the trade of live birds, and the campaigns have resulted in the seizure of 31 shops in Alexandria, as well as the execution of 412 birds were seized inside.
QENA detained in hospital diets 5 people suspected of contracting the disease are: Omaima Fatehy ?41 years?, housewife, and her baby Ahmed Yacoub, two, and Zeinab Mahmoud Alhenwany ?40 years?, housewife, and Suad Abdullah Hamid, ?40 years?, and the Princess Razeq Abulhasan, ?21 years?, housewife, on suspicion of having bird flu after an outbreak of similar symptoms of the disease on them. "from Egypt today,":tiphat:http://translate.google.com/transla...8%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%84+2009&sl=en&tl=ar&start=20​

 

[SophiaZoe]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Next door neighbors is not a coincidence (and the MOH did not mention Menofiyah for case #61 just to fill white space).

I don't disagree that next door neighbors is not a coincidence... however... to restate (in a different way)... neither were the infections of polio all acquired at a common outhouse.

It could just as easily be a common environmental contamination source. And, I would go further in saying that the mildness of the disease in these cases also strongly suggests low viral load environmental sources. And, IIRC, you have commented on that very low viral load environmental acquisition yourself not too long ago.

However, I do not presume to say what *is* happening in Egypt, only that there is "X" amount of circumstantial evidence to support more than one theory, and which one I weigh as the more likely of the theories.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Next door neighbors is not a coincidence (and the MOH did not mention Menofiyah for case #61 just to fill white space).

I think the mention of Menofiyah is because that is where the child showed symptoms during a visit:

"...was discovered during a visit to the house of her mother in one of the villages of Al-Menoufiya..."

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=216754&postcount=151


and

"...He was discovered when he became very sick during
visiting his grandparents in Monfia. He was given Tamiflu and
currently is stable...."


http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=216959&postcount=164

 

[HenryN]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Map updated

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=U...30.888084,31.245117&spn=2.008131,3.186035&z=8

 

[HenryN]

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

I think the mention of Menofiyah is because that is where the child showed symptoms during a visit:

"...was discovered during a visit to the house of her mother in one of the villages of Al-Menoufiya..."

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=216754&postcount=151


and

"...He was discovered when he became very sick during
visiting his grandparents in Monfia. He was given Tamiflu and
currently is stable...."


http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=216959&postcount=164

If he was infected in Beheira, the visit to his grandparents really has little relevance unless someone in Monfia has symptoms. I strongly suspect that the "poultry connection" is in Monifia, which is a probelm since the neighbor in Beheira has been confirmed.

There also is a delay in these reports, which I suspect is because there are some major issues of where and when.