Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

[vinny]

Re: Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

so does that mean sonny that nothings really changed,regards the virus.?,and we are no closer to it becoming a pandemic than we were this time last year.?

 

[Sonny]

Re: Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

so does that mean sonny that nothings really changed,regards the virus.?,and we are no closer to it becoming a pandemic than we were this time last year.?

No Vinny, Not at all.

I remember, all the time they used to say,
"Yeah there's a few experts that fear the virus 'might' mutate" Used to make me so mad to hear that.

Where as today it's more like, "Gee!, Look at all the Mutations!"
( even by High Level WHO Officials )

So what does that tell you?

 

[dwells57]

Re: Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Di...nth=March2007&file=World_News200703154434.xml

Bird flu detected on nine Egypt farms
Web posted at: 3/15/2007 4:4:34
Source ::: Agencies
CAIRO ? Bird flu has been detected on nine farms across Egypt where the poultry had been vaccinated against the virus, an agriculture ministry official said yesterday. Egypt, where the deadly H5N1 strain of the virus first appeared among poultry more than a year ago, is one of the world?s worst affected countries despite a prevention campaign by the authorities.

Between the start of January and mid-March, cases of vaccinated poultry which still contracted the virus have been found at nine farms, the official said on condition of anonymity.
He said out of 41,684 birds raised at the farms, almost 10,000 had died, amounting to a death toll of close to 25 per cent. The method of vaccination could be faulty, the official acknowledged. An expert in the fight against bird flu said a fault in the refrigeration of the vaccine could be the problem.

..partial clipping..

 

[HenryN]

Re: Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

It is worth noting that none of the three patrents who recently recovered (5F, 4F, 4M) had M230I.

 

[Theresa42]

Re: Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

It is worth noting that none of the three patrents who recently recovered (5F, 4F, 4M) had M230I.

That's interesting! Thanks, Doc!

 

[4-ABBA]

Re: Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

Let me talk of a growing concern I have.

On this site, we have pretty good anecdotal evidence, obtained via machine translations of foreign newspaper Websites, that in both Egypt and Indonesia, the number of suspected human H5N1 cases is growing. Yet it is almost impossible to get media confirmation of this unless/until the WHO certifies the presence of the disease.

We have word via the Jordanian press of an emergency WHO meeting in Cairo that goes undetected in the global media.

We have the BBC reporting the Egyptian government's alarm at the increased number of reported cases, the possible presence of a transformed virus (what I will call the "Niman M230I recombination") and the heightened surveillance in the region.

And we have the story of the Egyptian farmers who are "going underground" and not reporting cases of sickened poultry (and maybe sickened family members).

Am I off base here, or is everyone else very concerned about the situation in Egypt and Kuwait as well as Indonesia? Why was the Kuwaiti government so insistent on testing so many people for H5N1? And what of the 28 "non-negatives" the Kuwait report spoke of?

I think we need to discuss this situation further. There are obvious holes in surveillance of both the situation and the press' surveillance of the situation. I smell a bigger story brewing here, and we need to get someone(s) in there to report what the heck is going on.

Dr. Niman, a few weeks ago you spoke of some developments in Egypt that would start coming out. Are things connected?

Scott--I totally agree. Yesterday I posted this related concern in another thread:

In country after country, reporting actual H5N1 developments / cases is being delayed by a number of repeating factors that are becoming common:

** Resistance by local residents to giving r up their chicken flocks (whether sick or not)

** Reticence on the part of local resedents to report suspected human cases for fear that their chickens will be taken away and the local economy will be hurt

** Delays by health officials in reporting verification of actual H5N1 virus found in patients due to requirements of the verification process

** Delays in health agencies in discovering / reporting mutations in H5N1's presentation of infectivity / disease menifestations

** Local health workers being overwhelmed by case loads

QUESTION:

>>>>> Given these repeating patterns on reporting timeliness, one wonders how timely an actual h2h2h2h2h breakout will be reported to the world's press. <<<<<<br />

The longer the delay, the harder to contain an initial h2h2h2h breakout becomes.

 

[Theresa42]

Re: Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

>>>>> Given these repeating patterns on reporting timeliness, one wonders how timely an actual h2h2h2h2h breakout will be reported to the world's press. <<<<<

In addition to these concerns -- I don't know how many of you have noticed, but the majority (if not all?) of this season's confirmed cases from Egypt have appeared 'out-of-the-blue' as far as the suspected case tracking by us flubies goes.

What I mean is, the majority of recently confirmed cases have not appeared as suspected cases in the Egyptian press beforehand (at least not the sources we've been reading -- and I think we're covering most of the Egyptian papers that are online). I really don't know how the press get their info on suspected cases in Egypt. If it's from the authorities, then I start to wonder (given the lack of pre-confirmation info on so many patients) if the authorities are just not releasing info on the worst cases until they are confirmed...?

Makes me concerned about our ability (as limited as it already is) to spot an H2H2H (etc.) breakout in Egypt any earlier than we might hear about it in the MSM (which will probably be too late for my tastes!).

 

[vinny]

Re: Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

please excuse me for not understanding a lot of this,but to put it in simple words,its coming for us the only problems is none of us now when(sorry if im wrong).

 

[Theresa42]

Re: Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

its coming for us the only problems is none of us now when....

None of us know if or when. There's no guarantee that H5N1 will definitely go pandemic (just wish there was a guarantee that it won't go pandemic!).

 

[Susie]

Re: Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

None of us know if or when. There's no guarantee that H5N1 will definitely go pandemic (just wish there was a guarantee that it won't go pandemic!).

Yes, but I suspect that a lot of us sense that it is hotting up - either actually or just through reporting. What would be nice on FT is a monthly opinion poll - is it more likely/less likely now than it seemed a month ago. There must be a lot of people on this forum who have opinions and hunches that they can't put into clear numbers, but could express in these terms. I know it's not scientific but it would be interesting, along the lines of the betting forecasts by ProMed members.

 

[hawkeye]

Re: Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

I think you're right about the many "feeling" that BF is picking up steam, however, I have concern about an opinion poll, it is just opinion, also, since many people from around the world visit this site, and many of whom haven't been weathering the BF storm and speculation for years might be prone to panic and make rash decisions that would otherwise not have been made.

Don't get me wrong, I, like most, would like lead-time, however the fact remains, no one really knows "when" or even "if" it will happen.

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

In addition to these concerns -- I don't know how many of you have noticed, but the majority (if not all?) of this season's confirmed cases from Egypt have appeared 'out-of-the-blue' as far as the suspected case tracking by us flubies goes. . . . .

Makes me concerned about our ability (as limited as it already is) to spot an H2H2H (etc.) breakout in Egypt any earlier than we might hear about it in the MSM (which will probably be too late for my tastes!).

Yes, I have noticed that. But your efforts are very much appreciated. By tracking "suspected" cases that do not become confirmed cases we are mildly assured that the pandemic has not yet started. I will be worried when the media no longer follows the suspected cases and we start getting increases in the confirmed cases.
</IMG>

 

[Theresa42]

Re: Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

In addition to these concerns -- I don't know how many of you have noticed, but the majority (if not all?) of this season's confirmed cases from Egypt have appeared 'out-of-the-blue' as far as the suspected case tracking by us flubies goes.

What I mean is, the majority of recently confirmed cases have not appeared as suspected cases in the Egyptian press beforehand (at least not the sources we've been reading -- and I think we're covering most of the Egyptian papers that are online). I really don't know how the press get their info on suspected cases in Egypt. If it's from the authorities, then I start to wonder (given the lack of pre-confirmation info on so many patients) if the authorities are just not releasing info on the worst cases until they are confirmed...?

Makes me concerned about our ability (as limited as it already is) to spot an H2H2H (etc.) breakout in Egypt any earlier than we might hear about it in the MSM (which will probably be too late for my tastes!).

MomCares had a much more optimistic suggestion as to maybe why we're not hearing about the pos cases earlier. I'm sure she won't mind if I paste it here:

Maybe one reason we're not hearing about the confirmations in advance is that they're getting test results so quickly -- possibly before the press gets a chance to publish them as suspect? Compared to Indonesia, where even in the best of times it took weeks and sometimes even months to get confirmation, I won't complain about a day for confirmation in Egypt.

She points out that the latest case from Aswan was reportedly admitted to hospital on Tuesday and the test results came back on Wednesday. Maybe this is true for the other positive cases this season? I hope so!

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

Theresa42, I am not sure I follow MomCares reasoning. Positive cases are reported almost immediately, but then what about the "negative" tests? Are we to assume that all of the lingering suspected cases are considered "false" negatives and then are subjected to another round of testing before results are posted?

Presumably the "return time" on testing results should be the same for either positive or negative cases, at least for the first round of tests.

 

[Theresa42]

Re: Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

Presumably the "return time" on testing results should be the same for either positive or negative cases, at least for the first round of tests.

The problem with Egypt, though, is just that neither the authorities nor the press ever really reports the negatives. (Aargh!) Occasionally you read in the press that one or two people tested negative -- but almost never. And the Health Ministry doesn't publish the negative results either, unfortunately (until they come out with a report saying that ca. 2300 people tested neg in a year!).

Like you say, the return time on testing should be the same -- but it's hard to tell from 'out here'.

 

[JohnW]

Re: Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

Yes, changes in the receptor binding domain can alter tissue tropism, which could lead to chnages in the clinical presentation. The receptor binding domain controls which tissue types can be easily infected and since M230I is in all three human strains (H1N1, H3N2, influenza B), it may be able to attack more human cell types, especially when combined with the Qinghai HA cleavage site, GERRRKKR, as well as PB2 E627K.

This would be consistent then with following statement? "The change of the haemagglutinin molecule from avian adaptation to human adaptation must be expected to act as an additional virulence factor because it will enhance the total number of cells that can be infected (per host organism), increase the total rate of virus replication and potentiate the effects of the other virulence factors already present." (http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~content=a768149644~db=all~order=page)

 

[vinny]

Re: Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

excuse me for being thick but could someone please,explain the above post in simple terms please,thank you.

 

[JohnW]

Re: Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

I'd be the blind leading the blind if I tried to explain it It relates to the following quote from the article:

<quote>
Dr. Hallaj: "In all the six cases which died lately in Egypt - in five of them we have seen this multi-organ failure. We cannot say whether this is due to a delay in coming to the hospital and accordingly the anti-viral we have against the disease might not work if it is given after 48 hours of the appearance of symptoms -- or it is to a more virulent virus -- but most probably it is a more virulent virus because clinically we have seen a new picture. We have a multi-organ infection - a multi-organ failure - it is not only the respiratory tract."
</quote>

If I understand what the scientists are saying, the more the virus becomes adapted to humans, the more types of cells it is able to replicate in...increasing the lethality of the virus. This would seem to be consistent with what Dr. Hallaj was talking about.

 

[scottmcpherson]

OK, at the risk of embarrassment....

OK, at the risk of embarrassment....

I will take a stab at it, Vinny.

Here goes.....

What we now know is that, through some process (I favor Dr. Niman's recombination theory), the H5N1 virus is moving slowly away from its affinity to attach to the cells of duck intestines, and is moving toward attaching to chicken throats and nasal passages. This is done by both changes in hemagglutinin and in the receptor binding domain (the PB2 strand of RNA), which helps steer and control what cells the HA goes for.

The PB2 changes (polymorphisms) are virtually identical to those found in human influenzas, both A and B types. This is extremely distressing news, because it moves us ever closer to a pandemic strain.

The problem is, human throats and nasal passages have very a similar cellular makeup to chicken throats and nasal passages, so the more the virus favors the chicken throats, the more it favors human throats.

This also increases the virus' morbidity, because the more cells it can infect right off the top, the victim becomes sicker quicker.

All of this was recently confirmed in a scientific paper, which the board discussed a few weeks ago in a post. Basically, a bunch of Europeans confirmed Dr. Niman's findings about changes in PB2 and the receptor binding domain.

In another study, it was found that only two -- TWO -- changes in the amino acid structure of H1N1 gave it the extreme lethality it was known for. Using that same logic, it means only two additional amino acid changes could turn our little H5N1 into another serial killer. Everyone is worrying if the HA and PB2 changes are part and parcel of this metamorphosis.

OK, gang, how did I do?

 

[Blue]

Re: Egypt fears of bird flu mutation

That was very clear. I got it. I even took notes. Thanks.