Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1 Died

Commonground · Mar 22, 2010

Sunday, March 21st, 2010 - 20:46

The Ministry of Health on Sunday evening, the discovery of human cases of bird flu, a child aged 4 years in Beni Suef, bringing the number of cases infected with the disease since it appeared to 107 cases.

The ministry's statement into the situation Beni Suef General Hospital on the eighteenth of March, has been suffering from high fever, cough, runny nose and pneumonia after exposure to infected birds, which gave Tamiflu to be transferred to hospital in the capital of the poor condition

direct link:

http://www.youm7.com/News.asp?NewsID=203975&SecID=97&IssueID=104

http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&sl=ar&tl=en&u=http://www.youm7.com/News.asp%3FNewsID%3D203975%26SecID%3D97%26IssueID%3D87&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&twu=1&usg=ALkJrhjxprA01GRQJ4MJFBk_vjHG9M2FUgmiflu

Commonground · Mar 22, 2010

Re: "Health" declares bird flu infection 107

Re: "Health" declares bird flu infection 107

Monday 6/4/1431 AH - 22/3/2010

Health announced 107 infection of bird flu

Ministry of Health announced yesterday it was discovered new cases of human cases of bird flu disease to a child aged 4 years to become the total infected cases to 107 so far.

The department noted that the state of Beni Suef, Beni Suef hospital income year on March 18, suffering from fever and cough, runny nose and pneumonia after being exposed to birds suspected of being infected with the disease.

And gave the child Tamiflu - according to the ministry - on the spot, and evacuated to hospital in the capital, and his health is critical.

http://translate.googleusercontent....&twu=1&usg=ALkJrhiDO6XpnNkptWcjuQK5w2mAUSVQ9A

Commonground · Mar 22, 2010

Re: "Health" declares bird flu infection 107

Re: "Health" declares bird flu infection 107

For a child aged 4 year


The discovery of new cases of bird flu

The Health Ministry announced Sunday the discovery was a new case of human infection with bird flu of a child aged 4 years to become this is the case No. 107 since the onset of the disease in Egypt.

واشارت الوزارة الى ان صاحب الحالة وهو من ببا بمحافظة بنى سويف كان قد دخل مستشفى بنى سويف العام يوم 18 مارس الحالى وهو يعانى من ارتفاع فى درجة الحرارة وكحة ورشح والتهاب رئوى عقب تعرضه لطيور يشتبه فى إصابتها بمرض انفلونزا الطيور.

The ministry said the owner of a Papa situation in Beni Suef had entered Beni Suef General Hospital on March 18, suffering from fever and cough, runny nose and pneumonia after being exposed to birds suspected of being infected with bird flu.

وذكرت الوزارة ان الطفل قد اعطى عقار التاميفلو على الفور وتم تحويله إلى مستشفى منشية البكرى وحالته الصحية حرجة.

The ministry said that the child had been given Tamiflu was immediately transferred to hospital in the capital and his health condition is critical.

http://translate.googleusercontent....&twu=1&usg=ALkJrhijoLlJUsFntw8NX_-gt3ljRAv_oQ

Twall · Mar 22, 2010

Re: "Health" declares bird flu infection 107

Re: "Health" declares bird flu infection 107

we have a new report today from the mohp dated for the 20th march.I looked back thru the last weeks reports and no new suspect cases have been added to beni suief governorate as todays date.or on any day back to the 16th.

all statistics remain the same no new suspect cases were added for the 20th

the cumulative suspect case total since 2006 remains at 11,552

sharon sanders · Mar 22, 2010

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1

2010 -

# 91 - 20 years old, female, onset date - January 6, 2010 - Beni Suef governate Death

# 92 - 1 year old, male, onset date - January 7, 2010 - Dakahalya governorate

# 93 - 3 years old, male, onset date - January 19, 2010 - Assuit governorate

# 94 - 45 years old, male, onset date - January 12, 2010 - Shargea governorate

# 95 - 40 years old, female, onset date - January 31, 2010 - Qalyubia Governorate

# 96 - 29 years old, female, onset date - January 27, 2010 - Menoufiya Governorate Death

# 97 - 37 years old, male, onset date - February 6, 2010 - Helwan governate Death

# 98 - 32 years old, male, onset date - February 6, 2010 - Menofiya Governorate

# 99 - 29 years old, female, onset date - February 6, 2010 - Menoufiya governorate Death

#100 - 10 years old, male, onset date February 10, 2010 - Dakahlia governorate

#101 - 13 years old, male, onset date February 10, 2010 - Kafr El-Sheikh governorate

#102 - 30 years old, female, onset date February 10, 2010 - Kafr El-Sheikh governorate

#103 - 14 months, male, onset date February 22, 2010 - Qalyubia governorate

#104 - 52/53 years old, male, onset date February 27, 2010 - Qalyubia governorate Death

#105 - 20 years old, female, onset date March 5, 2009 - Qalyubia governorate Death

#106 - 18 months, male, onset date March 2, 2009 - Kfr Elsheikh governorate

#107 - 4 years old, male, onset date March 18, 2009 - Beni Suef governorate Death

Twall · Mar 23, 2010

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1

I have been finding the new reports in the early mornings, they must be publishing very late at night and this practice started recently.

the report which is dated for the 21st of march 2010 contains the new information below.

Shows one new case being treated in the Cairo governorate which should be case number 107.The statistics for this governorate all remain un-changed.

Case number 107 is now listed as a new positive case and is being reported for the first time publicly within a formal document.

the current statistics based on the mohp report are below, for the governorate number 05 Beni Suef (Arabic: بني سويف‎)

the total suspect case count is currently (206) as of the twenty first of march the report adds a single positive new case for this reporting day with a current total of (4). only (2) deaths have been reported cumulatively since 2006 and (0) cases are shown under-going hospital treatment within this governorate.

current totals cumulative since 2006 are as follow

fatalities cumulative 32
recovery cumulative 74
within hospitals 1
cumulative suspect 11,555

two other governorates each reported one new suspect case for this reporting period
21 Dakahlia governorate (Arabic: الدقهلية‎)
29 Helwan Governorate (Arabic: محافظة حلوان)

Commonground · Mar 23, 2010

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1

The SAIDR reports are caught up to March 21st. Therefore, I think, but can't be sure, that he was connected with one of these reported outbreaks, specifically, the one in blue. It would also explain why he is in critical condition.

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Date of sampling: 10 March 2010
Governorate: Beni Suef
District: Beni Suef
Village: Belfia
Type of rearing: Household
Species: mixed (chicken, duck)
Number of birds: 200
Vaccination status: Not vaccinated
Purpose of sampling: PDS



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Date of sampling: 10 March 2010
Governorate: Beni Suef
District: El Wasta
Village: Anfast
Type of rearing: Household
Species: mixed (chicken, duck)
Number of birds: 71
Vaccination status: Not vaccinated
Purpose of sampling: PDS
Comment: Source of infection determined to be young grower Peking ducks bought from nursery farm via peddler. The village had confirmed a HPAI outbreak under PDS (program of January 2010, when the source of infection was determined to be young grower Peking ducks bought from live bird market).

Date of result: 11 March 2010
Date of sampling: 10 March 2010
Governorate: Beni Suef
District: El Wasta
Village: Ezbet Radi
Type of rearing: Household
Species: mixed (chicken, duck)
Number of birds: 70
Vaccination status: Not vaccinated
Purpose of sampling: PDS
Comment: Source of infection was determined to be young growing chickens bought from nursery farm via peddler.

 http://www.saidr.org/en/animals.php

Twall · Mar 24, 2010

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1

another new report dated for the 22nd march,it only adds one new suspect case to the governorate number 20 Sharqia (Arabic: محافظة الشرقيّة‎)

the current suspect case total is 11,556

case number 107 remained undergoing treatment as of the 22nd.

Twall · Mar 24, 2010

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1

RECENT CASES: via http://www.saidr.org/en/humans.php

note the use of the word "she" is used due to the persons understanding of Arabic and is only meant to refer to the subject its normally written in the feminine context of she.

Date of report: 21 March 2010
Governorate: Beni Suef
District: Beba
Event summary: Male, 4 years old, experienced fever and cough and was admitted to Beni Suef General Hospital on March 18 with unilateral pneumonia. His family reported that the child had been in close contact with sick and dead and sick poultry. The child was reported in critical condition on March 21. She was referred to El-Bakry Hospital in Cairo. The MOH reported this was the 107th case of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Egypt.
Source of report: Amr Kandeel, Undersecretary for preventative affairs, MOH
Samir Refaie, Head of Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit, MOH

Commonground · Mar 24, 2010

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1

The death of a child infected with bird flu Beni Suef

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010 - 20:21

Died today, Wednesday, Hassan Ali Mohamed (4 years) a resident in the village fled Center launched a BPA Beni Suef, after suffering from bird flu.

أعلن الدكتور مجدى حزين، مدير إدارة الطب الوقائى بمديرية الصحة ببنى سويف، أن الطفل قد دخل مستشفى بنى سويف العام فى الثامن عشر من مارس الحالى، وهو يعانى من أعراض مرضية مثل ارتفاع درجة الحرارة، ورشح من الأنف، والتهاب رئوى حاد، وأعلن مساء الأحد الماضى عن إصابته بالمرض حيث أعطاه الأطباء عقار التاميفلو، وتم تحويله إلى مستشفى منشية البكرى بالقاهرة، ولكنه فارق الحياة اليوم بالمستشفى.

Dr. Magdy sad, Director of the Department of Preventive Medicine Department of Health Beni Suef, that the child has entered Beni Suef General Hospital on the eighteenth of March, which is suffering from symptoms such as high temperature, runny nose, pneumonia, and announced on Sunday evening the past from the illness, where doctors gave him Tamiflu, and evacuated to a hospital in the capital Cairo, but he died today in hospital.

http://translate.googleusercontent....&twu=1&usg=ALkJrhjiFa6Qt4B4LsVchQlRv7j5BUY5oA

sharon sanders · Mar 24, 2010

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1

Link to original source:

http://www.youm7.com/News.asp?NewsID=205211&SecID=97&IssueID=104

sharon sanders · Mar 24, 2010

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1 Died

7th death this year.

Almost twice last year's total deaths of 4.

2010 -

# 91 - 20 years old, female, onset date - January 6, 2010 - Beni Suef governate Death

# 92 - 1 year old, male, onset date - January 7, 2010 - Dakahalya governorate

# 93 - 3 years old, male, onset date - January 19, 2010 - Assuit governorate

# 94 - 45 years old, male, onset date - January 12, 2010 - Shargea governorate

# 95 - 40 years old, female, onset date - January 31, 2010 - Qalyubia Governorate

# 96 - 29 years old, female, onset date - January 27, 2010 - Menoufiya Governorate Death

# 97 - 37 years old, male, onset date - February 6, 2010 - Helwan governate Death

# 98 - 32 years old, male, onset date - February 6, 2010 - Menofiya Governorate

# 99 - 29 years old, female, onset date - February 6, 2010 - Menoufiya governorate Death

#100 - 10 years old, male, onset date February 10, 2010 - Dakahlia governorate

#101 - 13 years old, male, onset date February 10, 2010 - Kafr El-Sheikh governorate

#102 - 30 years old, female, onset date February 10, 2010 - Kafr El-Sheikh governorate

#103 - 14 months, male, onset date February 22, 2010 - Qalyubia governorate

#104 - 52/53 years old, male, onset date February 27, 2010 - Qalyubia governorate Death

#105 - 20 years old, female, onset date March 5, 2009 - Qalyubia governorate Death

#106 - 18 months, male, onset date March 2, 2009 - Kfr Elsheikh governorate

#107 - 4 years old, male, onset date March 18, 2009 - Beni Suef governorate Death

Twall · Mar 25, 2010

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1 Died

have looked over some of the numbers contained in publicly reported information.

what i can see is during the second half of 2009 over the last five month period.Is an average of about 253 suspect cases were added on a monthly basis during this period or 8.5 suspect cases per day. with a total of eight positive cases being discovered during this period. from a total suspect case number of 1265 or the discovery of one new positive case for every one hundred fifty eight suspect cases which were tested.

the numbers for the first three months of 2010 paint and entirely different picture.which includes some suspect cases from December 28th Thur the 22nd of march 2010.

during this three month period (84 days) only two hundred fifty nine new suspect cases have been added to the cumulative total which is currently 11,556 cases.

the daily average dropped during this period to only three new suspect cases a day.

which produced one new positive case per every 15.25 suspect cases when tested.

using the data for march alone i find a further reduction in the daily new suspect cases down to two per day on average. the physical number is forty six as of the 22nd march for this month. while the discovered total positive case ratio on a daily basis remains at 1 in 15.33 tested. the math indicates we most likely see at least another case prior to the end of march.

this public data reflects a massive reduction in the total suspect cases being tested. which was detectable in the mohp reports starting mid January when suspect numbers were trending down this trend continues today. while the total positive cases being discovered was increasing from the greatly reduced sampling base.

the current data is suggestive of march ratio in a range of 1pc/15.3sc to 1/13 im concerned it will be the latter based on the current trend line for the numbers.

we went from 1/158 to 1/15 in the two and half months since they began using the new methods and requirements which clearly defined new parameters and protocols for the implementation of testing.

this information is also directly related to how our normal endemic flus present in patents through out the entire year and how closely these different types of virus are located within the population base and geographically.this new reporting system also tends to hide these very close virus relationships,buy exclusion completely within this new reporting system.

Twall · Mar 25, 2010

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1 Died

another new report which is dated for the 23rd of march,it adds three new suspect case to the governorate number 15 Damietta Governorate (Arabic: دمياط‎)

the current suspect case total is 11,559

this report reflects the death of case number 107 which is being accounted for under the Cairo governorate the total deaths for Cairo has increased by one to nineteen all other statistics remain unchanged for this governorate.

the statistics for the governorate number 15 Damietta Governorate (Arabic: دمياط‎) are as follow based on the mohp report and are cumulative total's since 2006

844 total suspect cases have been reported for the governorate with three being added for the 23rd of march. to date only four positive cases have been confirmed from since 2006.with one case of recovery being shown and no cases currently hospitalized

the currently daily average of suspect cases remains at two per day.this brings the march suspect case total to 49 cases through the 23rd.

Commonground · Mar 25, 2010

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1 Died

Twall @ Post #13:

what i can see is during the second half of 2009 over the last five month period.Is an average of about 253 suspect cases were added on a monthly basis during this period or 8.5 suspect cases per day. with a total of eight positive cases being discovered during this period. from a total suspect case number of 1265 or the discovery of one new positive case for every one hundred fifty eight suspect cases which were tested.

Could they have been H1N1? Did they receive Tamiflu? This we will never know.

Twall · Mar 25, 2010

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1 Died

Commonground said:
Twall @ Post #13:

Could they have been H1N1? Did they receive Tamiflu? This we will never know.

no i don't think so as i have looked at this information from prior to the start of H1N1 and some other older reports also support a much higher number of suspect case sampling on a monthly basis going back a couple of years.

9500 suspect cases were already recorded prior to H1N1! over the proceeding three year period which gives you a average of 263 per month even though no tracking or detection system was in place during early 2006 this clearly indicates the numbers would be higher if i could discover the early data it would help.its also indicative of another endemic flu strain on a year round basis which also presents in humans a very similar fashion to h5n1.

yes some of them may have been H1N1 during the recent flu season or even unreported completely (cases of h5n1) due to the practice of treat then test only when or if the case presented in way which could be critical or was in a high risk group for H1N1.

two days ago my sons class room had 16 absences from 26 students what he described was and is most likely flu..also my wife tells me her classroom had five sick on the same day with what looked like flu to her.

Commonground · Mar 25, 2010

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1 Died

Thanks Twall for all your research, we are all very lucky to have a boots on the ground member here at FT's, and I know that I certainly appreciate it.

Like you said, you have a 365-day flu season in Egypt.

Twall · Mar 25, 2010

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1 Died

Thursday, 25 March 2010
Bird flu death toll rises to 33

A 4-year-old kid died of bird flu in Bani Swief on Wednesday 24/3/2010, bringing the number of fatalities of the H5N1 virus to 33, Health Ministry said.

The ministry stated that this is the sixth case this year.

The child contracted the virus on March 18 and checked into hospital while suffering Pneumonia, the ministry said.

The ministry stated that the 107th case has been reported in Egypt's governorate of Bani Swief. The avian flu was first detected in Egypt in 2006.

http://www.sis.gov.eg/en/Story.aspx?sid=47376

Twall · Mar 27, 2010

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1 Died

another new report which is dated for the 25Th of march, it includes two days worth of new suspect cases.the report adds six new suspect cases

the daily average new suspect number is 2.2 thru the 25th which gives us a positive to suspect case ratio of 1/18

the current suspect case total is 11,565

the first three governorates which are in bold are new suspect cases from the 24Th of march

the Cairo governorate adds two new suspect cases to its tally which brings the total for this governorate to 1,301 all other statistics remain unchanged for this governorate.

the Alexandria governorate adds one new suspect cases to its tally which brings the total for this governorate to 929 all other statistics remain unchanged for this governorate.

the Luxor governorate adds two new suspect cases to its tally which brings the total for this governorate to 34 all other statistics remain unchanged for this governorate this governorate shows 1 previous death.

the statistics for the governorate number 06 Minya Governorate (Arabic: محافظة المنيا‎) are as follow based on the mohp report and are cumulative total's since 2006

the governorate added one new suspect case for the 25th march which increased the total to 547 the report list 6 positive cases total.with 1 fatality shown along with a single case of recovery.

Twall · Apr 1, 2010

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1 Died

http://empres-i.fao.org/empres-i/2/obd?idOutbreak=152975
http://empres-i.fao.org/empres-i/2/obd?idOutbreak=152994
http://empres-i.fao.org/empres-i/2/obd?idOutbreak=152993
http://empres-i.fao.org/empres-i/2/obd?idOutbreak=152989
http://empres-i.fao.org/empres-i/2/obd?idOutbreak=152990

it also has information for cases of human infections with locations.

Egypt shows seventy eight total avian/human positive cases for the month of march alone. the first twenty four pages have roughly 230 items for Egypt during 2010 alone my search was for Africa avian/human http://empres-i.fao.org/empres-i/home?p=a&l=en_US

has map Lat/Long for some of the recent reported cases from many locations around the world

it looks like the march information which is public to date, gives us an general ideal of the number of positive poultry cases that are related to or are needed to produce another positive human case by some form of dispersal pp19.5 = 1ph

the February numbers show pp14.7 = 1ph the total poultry infections during this month were about 115, with 8 human cases confirmed.

Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1 Died

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