Effects of Internal Border Control on Spread of Pandemic Influenza

[Laidback Al]

[Epub ahead of print]​

Effects of Internal Border Control on
Spread of Pandemic Influenza

James G. Wood,*? Nasim Zamani,? C. Raina MacIntyre,*? and Niels G. Becker?
*National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance of Vaccine Preventable Diseases, Sydney,
Australia; ?The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; and ?Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

We investigated the capacity of internal border control to limit influenza spread in an emergent
pandemic in the context of Australia, a country with a low-population density and geopolitical
boundaries that may facilitate restrictions. Mathematical models were used to study the time
delay between epidemics in 2 population centers when travel restrictions were imposed. The
models demonstrated that population size, travel rates, and places where travelers reside can
strongly influence delay. The model simulations suggested that moderate delays in geographic
spread may be possible with stringent restrictions and a low reproduction number, but results will
be sensitive to the reproduction number and timing of restrictions. Model limitations include the
absence of further importations and additional control measures. Internal border control may
have a role in protecting domestic centers early in a pandemic, when importations are sparse.
Our results may be useful for policymakers.



Suggested citation for this article

: Wood JG, Zamani N, MacIntyre CR, Becker NG. Effects

of internal border control on spread of pandemic influenza. Emerg Infect Dis. 2007 Jul;


http://www.cdc.gov/eid/content/13/7/pdfs/06-0740.pdf

hat-tip Mojo.

​

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Effects of Internal Border Control on Spread of Pandemic Influenza

"...a country with a low-population density and geopolitical
boundaries that may facilitate restrictions.."

The low-population density may be a key factor to internal border controls being effective.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Effects of Internal Border Control on Spread of Pandemic Influenza

I also think that the practices of different cultures should be considered. For instance, in some cultures people do not wait in lines. They bunch together instead of forming and maintaining orderly lines when waiting.