tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Econ Hum Biol
. 2021 Jun 10;43:101020.
doi: 10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101020. Online ahead of print.
Disease and fertility: Evidence from the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Sweden
Nina Boberg-Fazlic[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Maryna Ivets[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Martin Karlsson[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Therese Nilsson[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
What are the consequences of a severe health shock like an influenza pandemic on fertility? Using rich administrative data and a difference-in-differences approach, we evaluate fertility responses to the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Sweden. We find evidence of a small baby boom following the end of the pandemic, but we show that this effect is second-order compared to a strong long-term negative fertility effect. Within this net fertility decline there are compositional effects: we observe a relative increase in births to married women and to better-off families. Several factors - including disruptions to the marriage market and income effects - contribute to the long-term fertility reduction. The results are consistent with studies that find a positive fertility response following natural disasters, but we show that this effect is short-lived.
Keywords: 1918-19 influenza pandemic; Difference-in-Differences; Fertility; Sweden.
. 2021 Jun 10;43:101020.
doi: 10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101020. Online ahead of print.
Disease and fertility: Evidence from the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Sweden
Nina Boberg-Fazlic[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Maryna Ivets[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Martin Karlsson[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Therese Nilsson[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 34252794
- DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101020
Abstract
What are the consequences of a severe health shock like an influenza pandemic on fertility? Using rich administrative data and a difference-in-differences approach, we evaluate fertility responses to the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Sweden. We find evidence of a small baby boom following the end of the pandemic, but we show that this effect is second-order compared to a strong long-term negative fertility effect. Within this net fertility decline there are compositional effects: we observe a relative increase in births to married women and to better-off families. Several factors - including disruptions to the marriage market and income effects - contribute to the long-term fertility reduction. The results are consistent with studies that find a positive fertility response following natural disasters, but we show that this effect is short-lived.
Keywords: 1918-19 influenza pandemic; Difference-in-Differences; Fertility; Sweden.