Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

[HenryN]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

But these sequences doesn't say, whether the birds were half domesticated or not - right? You can't find not all answers in the sequences.
It's just another version of tunnel view like these of idealistic birders, who believe "dead ducks don't fly" and global poultry industries are to blame.
We have to manage with a multifactorial modell as we have it with many other problems in Nature&Co.

Please.

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

Esp. from bar-headed gooses - but not from humans as reported above?
Was that a hoax?

The article you reference is by Dr. Woodson from sometime in 2006. He discusses in detail a variety of internet sources suggesting that there were many human H5N1 infections at Qinghai Lake in 2005. This has never been corroborated by the Chinese Government nor does WHO include these speculative cases in its current count of human infections. There is no way to determine if it was or was not a hoax.

This does not mean that there may not have been human infections at Qinghai Lake, it is just that there are no reported sequences from humans from Qinghai Lake from 2005.

 

[HenryN]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

But these sequences doesn't say, whether the birds were half domesticated or not - right? You can't find not all answers in the sequences.
It's just another version of tunnel view like these of idealistic birders, who believe "dead ducks don't fly" and global poultry industries are to blame.
We have to manage with a multifactorial modell as we have it with many other problems in Nature&Co.

Your posts are well OFF TOPIC. This thread is about fairy tales put out by conservation groups concerning the spread of H5N1.

Qinghai Lake was in 2005. The story is VERY well known. Over 5000 WILD birds died. Most were bar headed geese, but MANY WILD species were affected.

The main issue on this thread is the spread of H5N1. The data for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa are VERY clear. There are now close to 300 public isolates that have at least the HA gene sequenced, which are also publicly available. All are Qinghai.

There is NO abiguity. The sequences are public and VERY easy to interpret, which has been done multiple times now on this thread alone.

 

[Coleman]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

Okay, some bar headed gooses are wild, but maybe half-domesticated, too.
Noone knows the truth, but we knows the fact that bar headed gooses are used to be hatched artificial at Qinghai Lake like it is used to do it in Europe (USA?) with pheasants, which are returned to the wild for hunting ... good for us, that pheasants are no hosts for diseases so far. But, who knows ...?

Does someone knows the phylogenetic homology of the pochard sequences (Aythya ferina), found on 17 February 2006 in Joyeux district, France comparing with the turkey sequences in Versallieux?
And which nearest homology exists for the pochards - to sequences in Black Sea, Russia or ??

I guess that my questions and your answers help to clear the view what we have to hold from "dead ducks don't fly liga" ... but personally I see the link between from (half-) domesticated poultry and wild birds and vice versa. These links/complex distribution modells between farm animals (cattles ... poultry) and wild birds are well known for another bacterial and viral diseases, too. Lots of studies and datas proves that as well.
Sorry, i can't blind out these facts like the tunnel view-birder it does, and maybe also You in your own way, because You are totally fixed on sequences. Sequences are important, that's true, but they don't deliver the whole story ... so far it leaves too many gaps between. There are another factors(vectors), which can help to "fill the story with live".

 

[HenryN]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

Okay, some bar headed gooses are wild, but maybe half-domesticated, too.
Noone knows the truth, but we knows the fact that bar headed gooses are used to be hatched artificial at Qinghai Lake like it is used to do it in Europe (USA?) with pheasants, which are returned to the wild for hunting ... good for us, that pheasants are no hosts for diseases so far. But, who knows ...?

Does someone knows the phylogenetic homology of the pochard sequences (Aythya ferina), found on 17 February 2006 in Joyeux district, France comparing with the turkey sequences in Versallieux?
And which nearest homology exists for the pochards - to sequences in Black Sea, Russia or ??

I guess that my questions and your answers help to clear the view what we have to hold from "dead ducks don't fly liga" ... but personally I see the link between from (half-) domesticated poultry and wild birds and vice versa. These links/complex distribution modells between farm animals (cattles ... poultry) and wild birds are well known for another bacterial and viral diseases, too. Lots of studies and datas proves that as well.
Sorry, i can't blind out these facts like the tunnel view-birder it does, and maybe also You in your own way, because You are totally fixed on sequences. Sequences are important, that's true, but they don't deliver the whole story ... so far it leaves too many gaps between. There are another factors(vectors), which can help to "fill the story with live".

The sequences are the whole story. They show where the H5N1 came from and where it is going. There are now over 300 public sequences from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (all Qinghai). I have given you MANY examples of wild bird sequence not found in any farm sequences.

You post speculation with NO data. Your posts remain OFF TOPIC.

 

[Coleman]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

Please ... that's a fact ...

... that bar headed gooses are used to be hatched artificial at Qinghai Lake like it is used to do it in Europe (USA?) with pheasants, which are returned to the wild for hunting ...

... Sequences aren't the only sources for a complex epidemiological modell.

The list to bar headed gooses answers in no way, whether the birds are hatched artificial, grown up on a farm ... so it is a speculation in both way.
You should know, that water birds, whether domestic or just "half" fly many kilometers from their farm. No sequences required, no speculation, just a fact.
You can't prove it neither with "dead" sequence datas, whether they were wild or not.:tiphat:

Does someone knows the phylogenetic homology of the pochard sequences (Aythya ferina), found on 17 February 2006 in Joyeux district, France comparing with the turkey sequences in Versallieux?
And which nearest homology exists for the pochards - to sequences in Black Sea, Russia or ??

Maybe could give another one answers to these questions?

 

[HenryN]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

Please ... that's a fact ...
... Sequences aren't the only sources for a complex epidemiological modell.

The list to bar headed gooses answers in no way, whether the birds are hatched artificial, grown up on a farm ... so it is a speculation in both way.
You should know, that water birds, whether domestic or just "half" fly many kilometers from their farm. No sequences required, no speculation, just a fact.
You can't prove it neither with "dead" sequence datas, whether they were wild or not.:tiphat:


Maybe could give another one answers to these questions?

The common pochard sequence from France was similar to the ONE group in Germany, which was widespread (also in Italy and Ukraine).

Your comments on wild or not are nonsense. Almost ALL sequences from the region were wild birds. The total for Europe in 2006 topped 700 from wild birds.

You are once again posting nonsense.

The vast majority of the European sequences are listed here

http://precedings.nature.com/documents/743/version/1

 

[HenryN]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

Please ... that's a fact ...
... Sequences aren't the only sources for a complex epidemiological modell.

The list to bar headed gooses answers in no way, whether the birds are hatched artificial, grown up on a farm ... so it is a speculation in both way.
You should know, that water birds, whether domestic or just "half" fly many kilometers from their farm. No sequences required, no speculation, just a fact.
You can't prove it neither with "dead" sequence datas, whether they were wild or not.:tiphat:


Maybe could give another one answers to these questions?

Ricght, the H5N1 could have been brought in by Martians. You haven't posted anything to exclude that possibility.

 

[Coleman]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

Sorry, but the word nonsense is a specialicity from You.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

yes. .

 

[HenryN]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

Sorry, but the word nonsense is a specialicity from You.

The issue of Qinghai Lake was settled in mid-2005. The first 178 dead birds were all bar-headed geese as reported on May 9, 2005. By the time the OIE report was filed May 21, 2005, the number dead had grown to 519. Although most were bar headed geese, there were 4 other species (gulls, geese, and comorants) cited. By June, the number dead topped 5000.

The 1/2 farm nonsense is on a par with a Martian invasion.

After Qinghai Lake, the Qinghai strain spread to 50 countries west of China and initial cases were wild birds in countries that had a somewhat active surveillance program (most obvious in Europe, where there have been very few outbreaks on farms). The pattern was repeated again this summer. The widespread outbreaks in wild birds appears to have now made its way to a farm in Bavaria, long after the outbreaks were reported in Germany this summer.

The movement of H5N1 by wild birds is obvious, as is the OFF TOPIC nature of your wild speculation.

 

[HenryN]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

Please ... that's a fact ...
... Sequences aren't the only sources for a complex epidemiological modell.

The list to bar headed gooses answers in no way, whether the birds are hatched artificial, grown up on a farm ... so it is a speculation in both way.
You should know, that water birds, whether domestic or just "half" fly many kilometers from their farm. No sequences required, no speculation, just a fact.
You can't prove it neither with "dead" sequence datas, whether they were wild or not.:tiphat:


Maybe could give another one answers to these questions?

Here are some of the WILD bird species from Germany in 2006:

Bergente : scaup
Blessralle : coot
Bussard : buzzard
Ente : duck
Eule : owl
Falke : falcon
Gaensesaeger : goosander
Greifvogel : raptor
Graugans : greylag goose
Habicht : goshawk
Haubentaucher : great crested grebe
Hauskatze : domestic cat
Hoeckerschwan : mute swan
Kanada Gans : canada goose
Kormoran : cormorant
Kornweihe : hen harrier
Mausebussard : common buzzard
Moewe : gull
Moewenvogel : gull-like bird
Rabenvogel : raven-like bird
Reiherente : tufted duck
Saeger : merganser
Schwan : swan
Singschwan : whooper swan
Steinmarder : stone marten
Stockente : mallard
Sturmmoewe : mew gull
Tafelente : pochard
Trauerente : common scoter
Turmfalke : kestrel
verwilderte Hausgans : domestic goose ran wild
Wanderfalke : peregrine falcon
Weissstorch : white stork
Wildente : wild duck
Wildgans : wild goose

 

[Coleman]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

Sorry, but all these sequences don't give an answer how, the 5000 birds at qinghai lake (mostly bar headed gooses) come to HPAI H5N1.
R.G. Webster (the flu pope himself) et al. says that HPAI can only emerge in domestic poultry and will be spread through contact by wild or half domesticated birds. Wild birds are naturally only hosts for LPAI, as Webster et al. says - so ... What is more probable to infect such a large number (5000) of birds?
Half domestication (5000 gooses are nothing for an asian water bird farm) or contact to martians? You would rather prefer the last, than to say, okay maybe someone other than me is probably right. It's e'er the same.

 

[HenryN]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

Sorry, but all these sequences don't give an answer how, the 5000 birds at qinghai lake (mostly bar headed gooses) come to HPAI H5N1.
R.G. Webster (the flu pope himself) et al. says that HPAI can only emerge in domestic poultry and will be spread through contact by wild or half domesticated birds. Wild birds are naturally only hosts for LPAI, as Webster et al. says - so ... What is more probable to infect such a large number (5000) of birds?
Half domestication (5000 gooses are nothing for an asian water bird farm) or contact to martians? You would rather prefer the last, than to say, okay maybe someone other than me is probably right. It's e'er the same.

You are posting giberish.

The Qinghai strain is high path. It is clade 2.2 (as in related to clade 2.1 (Indonesia) and clade 2.3 (Fujian in China) and not far from clade 1(southeast Asia). All are high path and were so long befoire Qinghai Lake/

Qinghai (clade 2.2) is HPAI and evolved from Asian HPAI that traces back to 1996.

Please stop posting misleading information.

You clearly have no idea about how Qinghai evolved. You take a quote out on context and the mis-apply it. That is how fairy tales popagate.

Your remarks have no scientific basis.

 

[Coleman]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

And how has it emerged to highly pathogenic?
Through martians?

And no, I try to view the problem in a context ... as many flu specialist do it too.
No serious flu specialist only see the sequences. Nature has to be seen always in a complex context. You are fixed on "dead" sequences.

 

[HenryN]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

And how has it emerged to highly pathogenic?
Through martians?

And no, I try to view the problem in a context ... as many flu specialist do it too.
No serious flu specialist only see the sequences. Nature has to be seen always in a complex context. You are fixed on "dead" sequences.

Clearly this is not your field and you have no idea what you are posting, but the story really is in the sequence.

HPAI H5N1 was first reported in Asia in 1996 in a Guangdong goose. ALL of the H5N1 in Asia and now Europe, the Middle East, and Africa evolved from this version of HIGH PATH H5N1. The H5N1 currently circulating was called the Z genotype when it emerged out of China in 2003/2004. All of the current clades evolved from this Z (or related V) genotype.

Qinghai was HPAI in 2005 when first reported, and Webster's paper in Nature acknowledges that it was related to a 2003 Shantou HIGH PATH H5N1 sequence (as well as the 2003 sequences in South Korea / Japan).

The story is in the sequnece and the story has been quite clear all along.

Bird watchers and conservation groups, who can't read a sequence, spin all kinds of fairly tales that have ZERO basis in fact.

Qinghai in wild birds is virtually the same as Qinghai in poultry, humans, or other mammals. It is the H5N1 that evolves and it has a broad host range.

Trying to spread the "wild birds at victims" or "dead birds don't fly" nonsense simply internet babble, which increased dramatically after Qingahi Lake, because after that outbreak, the ambiguity was gone.

 

[Coleman]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

You understand obviously not very much from epidemiology,too.

I get to know the complex sytem of distribution, all serious scientist know, that it has to beem cooperated interdisciplinary.
Sometimes, there were made sequences from birds, where we don't know till today, which concrete species, these ducks, goooses were.
No, data to sex, age ... all information could be important to understand the epidemiology.
And finallly not ven You can't exclude, that the gooses of the "first generation" were definitly wild or mybe half domesticated.
It did arise Websters head not mine, that HPAI emerged in domestic poultry after contact with LPAI infected wild birds and "gave" the HPAI back to "wild" birds.
As it is known, that bar headed gooses are artificial hatched, and finally the first effected birds it could be obvious, that they play a important role in the distribution of HPAI H5N1.

It dosn't matter what You say ... there are many serious flu specialists like webster without tunnel view.

As we all can see ... You are the (deleted) on the spot ... Is there any flu forum You spare out?

 

[HenryN]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

You understand obviously not very much from epidemiology,too.

I get to know the complex sytem of distribution, all serious scientist know, that it has to beem cooperated interdisciplinary.
Sometimes, there were made sequences from birds, where we don't know till today, which concrete species, these ducks, goooses were.
No, data to sex, age ... all information could be important to understand the epidemiology.
And finallly not ven You can't exclude, that the gooses of the "first generation" were definitly wild or mybe half domesticated.
It did arise Websters head not mine, that HPAI emerged in domestic poultry after contact with LPAI infected wild birds and "gave" the HPAI back to "wild" birds.
As it is known, that bar headed gooses are artificial hatched, and finally the first effected birds it could be obvious, that they play a important role in the distribution of HPAI H5N1.

It dosn't bother what You say ... there are many serious flu specialists like webster without tunnel view.

As we all can see ... You are the gabberish Johnny on the spot ... Is there any flu forum You spare out?

The transport and transmission of Qinghai H5N1 by wild birds is a clean as it gets.

Have fun with your fairy tales.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

maybe each of you can say, how much % of H5N1-infection
by viruses that traveled >1mile he thinks is done by

1) flying migratory birds
2) human transport of birds
3) other (airborne,water,food)

(shall we make a poll from it ?)

 

[Coleman]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

Where is the fairy tale, when I say, that it is important to know the species, and in the case of bar headed gooses it would be interesting to know, whether they were half domesticated or not? That are only some factors which are required to understand the epidemiological modell in toto.
In 2005/2006 sometimes the birds weren't even specified. Great, now we have a sequenced dead duck, but if we would know the definite species, the flu scientist would know more today, which species are more effected. Till today, noone can draw a clear picture of the distribution/emerging modell.

In fact I believe R.G. Webster et al. are close on that what You call fairy tale.
Maybe You didn't get it through, but i don't believe on dead ducks don't fly ... what i believe is based on different facts ... sequences, datas from interdisciplinary sciences ... which create a complex epidemiological modell ... genetic sequences are just the "heart" of it.