Ebola outbreak in the U.S.? Probably not happening

[Gemineye]

Abby Philli, the Washington Post
September 19 at 9:16 AM

Vespignani said his team's calculations jibe with what several other Ebola-modeling groups have found -- that the United States is at risk, but that chance of the deadly virus spreading here is fairly small.

Speaking at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Tuesday, President Obama said U.S. health officials "agree that the chances of an Ebola outbreak here ... are extremely low...


http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2014/09/19/ebola-in-the-u-s-dont-bet-on-it/

 

[Vibrant62]

Re: Ebola outbreak in the U.S.? Probably not happening

It is unfortunate that they do not define the factors for their worst and best case scenarios.

I wonder what the models would look like if they factor in the potential for 'mild' carriers of disease who may escape screening but still be capable of transmission, or people who enter the country during an incubation period.

More information on their models/ design would be helpful.

 

[Ray]

Re:

Re:

He states later in article that "If the epidemic continues at this growth rate and produces more and more cases, obviously the probably increases with time," Vespignani said of the likelihood of Ebola spreading to the United States. "That means that in October, it would be 20 percent or more, and then it will grow. The probability is increasing." It would be interesting to know what data he is using, if WHO figures, they are (according to WHO) very low estimates.

With realistic estimates of near 20K Ebola infections now in the affected countries and that number doubling every 21 days, the probability IS increasing for all nations, not just for the US.