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Ebola in graphics - the toll of a tragedy
- Thread starter AlaskaDenise
- Start date
BestlaStormcrow
Well-known member
Re: Ebola in graphics - the toll of a tragedy
Thanks for sharing this.
Thanks for sharing this.
Re: Ebola in graphics - the toll of a tragedy
Their numbers misleading in the deaths per day chart as the WHO report shows that at least 593 deaths were reported in the first week of October, or at least 84 deaths per day, while they are averaging 13 deaths per day over the year to get the annualized figure of the daily rate.
Their numbers misleading in the deaths per day chart as the WHO report shows that at least 593 deaths were reported in the first week of October, or at least 84 deaths per day, while they are averaging 13 deaths per day over the year to get the annualized figure of the daily rate.
JimO
Well-known member
Re: Ebola in graphics - the toll of a tragedy
I agree completely. Using the WHO reports, the average deaths per day from 9/7/14 to 10/7/14 is 61, going from 2,257 on 9/7 to 4,076 on 10/7 over 30 days, or 4,076 - 2,257 = 1,189/30 = 61.
People keep comparing the number of ebola deaths to other major diseases (to "put ebola in perspective") without considering that many other diseases have been in the human population continuously for decades and this ebola outbreak hasn't even peaked. If the projections are correct, we'll have 4,000,000 deaths in 18 months, or an average of 7,312 deaths per day over the course of the outbreak. So, IMHO, these comparisons are useless other than to try to convince people that it's not that big of a deal in the overall global disease universe. This does a disservice to the people of West Africa.
I agree completely. Using the WHO reports, the average deaths per day from 9/7/14 to 10/7/14 is 61, going from 2,257 on 9/7 to 4,076 on 10/7 over 30 days, or 4,076 - 2,257 = 1,189/30 = 61.
People keep comparing the number of ebola deaths to other major diseases (to "put ebola in perspective") without considering that many other diseases have been in the human population continuously for decades and this ebola outbreak hasn't even peaked. If the projections are correct, we'll have 4,000,000 deaths in 18 months, or an average of 7,312 deaths per day over the course of the outbreak. So, IMHO, these comparisons are useless other than to try to convince people that it's not that big of a deal in the overall global disease universe. This does a disservice to the people of West Africa.
Re: Ebola in graphics - the toll of a tragedy
The more I think about this article, the more misleading it seems to be. In rough numbers, about a billion people live in Africa and 20 million in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia combined or 2%. About 1 million people die in Africa every year from HIV/AIDS, however, this article says that 685 die every day in these three countries. I would expect the daily number of HIV/AIDS deaths to be 2% of 1 million deaths / 365 days or 55 deaths per day. So they are stating that there are 685 HIV/AIDS deaths per day and 13 Ebola Deaths per day averaged over the year in these three countries on October 7th when my calculations are 84 deaths per day for Ebola and 55 deaths per day for HIV/AIDS. Both numbers are too high, no doubt, but to keep spouting that Ebola isn't nearly as big a concern as HIV/AIDS is quite misleading in my opinion.
The more I think about this article, the more misleading it seems to be. In rough numbers, about a billion people live in Africa and 20 million in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia combined or 2%. About 1 million people die in Africa every year from HIV/AIDS, however, this article says that 685 die every day in these three countries. I would expect the daily number of HIV/AIDS deaths to be 2% of 1 million deaths / 365 days or 55 deaths per day. So they are stating that there are 685 HIV/AIDS deaths per day and 13 Ebola Deaths per day averaged over the year in these three countries on October 7th when my calculations are 84 deaths per day for Ebola and 55 deaths per day for HIV/AIDS. Both numbers are too high, no doubt, but to keep spouting that Ebola isn't nearly as big a concern as HIV/AIDS is quite misleading in my opinion.
Re: Ebola in graphics - the toll of a tragedy
I did not have a problem with the piece. There calculation of cases /day was to the 7th of Oct which is the 279th day of the year multiply by 13 and you get 3627 which seems about right by the WHO numbers. I haven't checked the rest of their maths but the text made it clear that unlike the bigger numbers for HIV etc. this is not a, relatively, static value but growing fast.
I did not have a problem with the piece. There calculation of cases /day was to the 7th of Oct which is the 279th day of the year multiply by 13 and you get 3627 which seems about right by the WHO numbers. I haven't checked the rest of their maths but the text made it clear that unlike the bigger numbers for HIV etc. this is not a, relatively, static value but growing fast.
They could have made it clearer that this is not the number of deaths that occurred on the 13th but an average for the year to date.
Re: Ebola in graphics - the toll of a tragedy
UN AIDS Number of deaths in 2013:
Sierra Leone: 3100
Guinea: 5400
Liberia: 2700
Total / 365 = Average: 31 per day
Ebola, first week of October averaged 84 deaths per day. There are 2.7 times more people dying of Ebola than of AIDS in these three countries. and this article makes it look like Ebola is nothing to worry about compared to AIDS.
UN AIDS Number of deaths in 2013:
Sierra Leone: 3100
Guinea: 5400
Liberia: 2700
Total / 365 = Average: 31 per day
Ebola, first week of October averaged 84 deaths per day. There are 2.7 times more people dying of Ebola than of AIDS in these three countries. and this article makes it look like Ebola is nothing to worry about compared to AIDS.
Re: Ebola in graphics - the toll of a tragedy
Blacknail we will just have to agree to differ and put it down to the old quote about the 3 types of lies.
Lies, D*mn Lies & Statistics.
Your numbers and theirs are both correct you have chosen different ways of displaying the data. As a whole I thought the article was not downplaying the severity of the epidemic but then nor was it hyping it. The numbers are scary and we are only at the beginning. Things will be a lot worse in February and March, which is the earliest I expect to see any significant down turn, and only then if all the promised help is delivered and a whole lot more is sent after that. If we get away with less than 100,000 a month at the peak I will be pleasantly surprised.
Edit:
Also they chose to include Nigeria in their data which radically alters the denominator. Of the malaria deaths in the 4 countries in 2012 85% were in Nigeria.
WHO data http://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main.A1368?lang=en
Blacknail we will just have to agree to differ and put it down to the old quote about the 3 types of lies.
Lies, D*mn Lies & Statistics.
Your numbers and theirs are both correct you have chosen different ways of displaying the data. As a whole I thought the article was not downplaying the severity of the epidemic but then nor was it hyping it. The numbers are scary and we are only at the beginning. Things will be a lot worse in February and March, which is the earliest I expect to see any significant down turn, and only then if all the promised help is delivered and a whole lot more is sent after that. If we get away with less than 100,000 a month at the peak I will be pleasantly surprised.
Edit:
Also they chose to include Nigeria in their data which radically alters the denominator. Of the malaria deaths in the 4 countries in 2012 85% were in Nigeria.
WHO data http://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main.A1368?lang=en
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