Ebola Cases Could Top 10K By 9/24 Fred Hutch Researchers Say

[franzpick]

PostPosted: Mon Sep 15, 2014 3:13 pm Post subject: Ebola Cases Could Top 10K By 9/24 Fred Hutch Researchers Say


The incomplete, irregular and delayed daily case increases I've been seeing seem to be compounding around 3-3.5% per day, suggesting a DOUBLING of the 9/7 4366 case total in 20-25 days to over 8700 by 9/30, and then possibly doubling again to over 17,000 after mid-Oct., but these Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center professionals are seeing a faster and more out-of-control infection rate that doubles EVD cases in less than 15 days.

Continued numbers as in Liberia's report this morning of a large single day increase to 120 cases, and the calculated new low doubling rate of 20 days, suggests the FredHutch group sees the essentials of a more rapid loss of whatever control there has been:

http://www.fredhutch.org/en/news/center ... Hutch.html

 

[franzpick]

Re: Ebola Cases Could Top 10K By 9/24 Fred Hutch Researchers Say

Maybe this works:

http://www.fredhutch.org/en/news/center-news/2014/09/Ebola-cases-10000-September_Fred-Hutch.html

 

[AnnaLisa]

Re: Ebola Cases Could Top 10K By 9/24 Fred Hutch Researchers Say

I assume they re-routed the road map to account for the new duration, 12-18months?

 

[franzpick]

Re: Ebola Cases Could Top 10K By 9/24 Fred Hutch Researchers Say

When infection growth of 3% per day doubles the sick caseload every 20 days, uninformed 'authorities' relying on the inarticulate major premise that 'time is on their side' so as to allow them to contain the spread within 18 months - is an outrageous, disgraceful, patently specious government declaration...