Ebola case count could rise to between 77,000 and 277,000 by year?s end

[MHSC]

Ebola case count could rise to between 77,000 and 277,000 by year?s end
A worst-case scenario would see an additional 77,181 to 277,124 Ebola cases by the end of 2014

Helen Branswell
September 11, 2014


TORONTO ? The case count in West Africa?s unprecedented Ebola outbreak could grow by tens or even hundreds of thousands of cases before the end of this year, a new study suggests.

The work, published Thursday in the online journal Eurosurveillance, said that if growth continues at its current pace, a worst-case scenario would see an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.

The authors suggested it is unlikely the worst-case scenario would come to pass because containment efforts are being scaled up in response to the crisis. But in an interview, one of the authors admitted that if the current numbers are wrong and many more cases have been missed in recent weeks, their estimate could potentially be too low.

....

They suggested that unless the containment efforts start to gain ground, the number of cases could double every two weeks.

...

?All we can say is there are lots and lots of cases, and more coming. And there are lots and lots of deaths, and more coming,? said Osterholm, who is director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy.

?And I don?t think we can put any real precision around this at this point. All we can say for our planning is that it?s a very, very big number. And we just have to take that into consideration.?
...

Chowell, who was reached in Japan, said in a telephone interview that as of Aug. 26 there was no evidence the containment efforts were bringing down the reproductive number.

http://www.macleans.ca/news/world/e...ise-to-between-77000-and-277000-by-years-end/

 

[GardenSpider]

Re: Ebola case count could rise to between 77,000 and 277,000 by year?s end

At what number does EVD become uncontainable? Or does it remain possible to contain regardless of how big the numbers of cases become? Is there a number that predicts the spread as inevitable?

 

[Flari]

Re: Ebola case count could rise to between 77,000 and 277,000 by year?s end

They suggested that unless the containment efforts start to gain ground, the number of cases could double every two weeks.

Sorry, but what a stupid study.
A doubling every two weeks had a daily weight gain of five percent.
In 116 days would be from 4,300 cases 1,234,318 cases.
77,000 at year-end are doubling every 28 days, 277,000 a doubling every 20 days.

But what will tell us all nonsense?
That the author would like to read himself in the newspaper?

Currently varies doubling for "all cases" between 18 and 34 days.
Without a "study":

http://flari2013.bplaced.net/Gesundheit/Ebola-1.PNG

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Ebola case count could rise to between 77,000 and 277,000 by year?s end

I think the Liberia numbers, alone, could exponentially expand beyond 277k by the end of the year. It appears the ebola situation in Liberia is totally out of control. I have not heard of a successful program of contract tracing and resultant self home quarantining for 21 days. Hopefully I am wrong.

 

[MHSC]

Re: Ebola case count could rise to between 77,000 and 277,000 by year?s end

At what number does EVD become uncontainable? Or does it remain possible to contain regardless of how big the numbers of cases become? Is there a number that predicts the spread as inevitable?

This is just my opinion.

It certainly has the potential to become uncontainable. Are we there yet? No, I don't think we are, but things need to start happening NOW. The nonchalant attitude the world has is somewhat alarming. If this turns out to be ebola in South America, I think the world leaders will suddenly get it and things will start happening very quickly.