tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
[h=1]Assessing Seasonal Risks for the Introduction and Mosquito-borne Spread of Zika Virus in Europe[/h] Joacim Rockl?v
, Mikkel Brandon Quam[SUP]1[/SUP]
, Bertrand Sudre[SUP]1[/SUP]
, Matthew German[SUP]1[/SUP]
, Moritz U.G. Kraemer
, Oliver Brady
, Isaac I. Bogoch
, Jing Liu-Helmersson
, Annelies Wilder-Smith
, Jan C. Semenza
, Mark Ong
, Kaja Kaasik Aaslav
, Kamran Khan
[SUP]1[/SUP]These authors contributed equally to this work.
Open Access
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2016.06.009
[h=2]Highlights[/h]
The imminent arrival of summer in the northern hemisphere brings an elevated risk of Zika virus epidemics outside of the Americas. In Europe, established populations of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes might be capable of transmitting Zika virus locally, if travellers introduce the virus from other areas of the world. Here we calibrate a model of vectorial capacity for Zika virus transmission in Europe, which we overlay with arriving air travellers into Europe from Zika affected areas in the Americas. We highlight specific geographic areas and timing of risk for Zika virus introduction and potential autochthonous transmission to inform European disease surveillance and control activities.
full article
http://www.ebiomedicine.com/article/S2352-3964(16)30253-5/fulltext
, Mikkel Brandon Quam[SUP]1[/SUP]
, Bertrand Sudre[SUP]1[/SUP]
, Matthew German[SUP]1[/SUP]
, Moritz U.G. Kraemer
, Oliver Brady
, Isaac I. Bogoch
, Jing Liu-Helmersson
, Annelies Wilder-Smith
, Jan C. Semenza
, Mark Ong
, Kaja Kaasik Aaslav
, Kamran Khan
[SUP]1[/SUP]These authors contributed equally to this work.
Open Access
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2016.06.009
[h=2]Highlights[/h]
- ? Based on a temperature dependent model validated to epidemiological data, the risk of mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus is estimated to peak between June and August in parts of Southern Europe.
- ? Our analysis assumed similar competence of European and Latin American Aedes vectors, including Ae. albopictus, to transmit Zika virus
- ? The flow of air travellers arriving into several European cities from regions of the Americas where they might be exposed to Zika virus, coincides with peak predicted capacity of European Aedes vectors to transmit Zika virus.
- ? These findings could help the European public, healthcare providers, and public health officials identify locations and times where the risk for Zika virus importation and subsequent local transmission is heightened.
The imminent arrival of summer in the northern hemisphere brings an elevated risk of Zika virus epidemics outside of the Americas. In Europe, established populations of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes might be capable of transmitting Zika virus locally, if travellers introduce the virus from other areas of the world. Here we calibrate a model of vectorial capacity for Zika virus transmission in Europe, which we overlay with arriving air travellers into Europe from Zika affected areas in the Americas. We highlight specific geographic areas and timing of risk for Zika virus introduction and potential autochthonous transmission to inform European disease surveillance and control activities.
full article
http://www.ebiomedicine.com/article/S2352-3964(16)30253-5/fulltext