tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
East Mediterr Health J
. 2020 Jul 23;26(7):768-773.
doi: 10.26719/emhj.20.084.
Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Egypt
Ghada Nasr Radwan[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
in En , Arabic , French
Background: On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization declared the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Egypt is among the five countries reporting the highest number of cases in Africa.
Aims: We aimed to provide an overview of the epidemic features of COVID-19 in Egypt in order to help guide an effective lockdown-exit strategy.
Methods: The incidence proportions, case fatality rates (CFR), growth rates, doubling time (Td), basic reproductive number (R[SUB]0[/SUB]) and Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) were calculated weekly and reviewed.
Results: As of 21 May 2020, the epidemic growth rate and R[SUB]0[/SUB] have decreased significantly; the averages (?SD) were 0.35 (?0.33) and 2.6 (?1.55) respectively. However, the incidence proportion has increased to 14 cases /100 000 population.
Conclusion: COVID-19 transmissibility has declined but the incidence rate has increased, underscoring that any lockdown-exit strategy should include measures to strengthen physical distancing, and case-based interventions to prevent an uncontrolled upsurge of COVID-19 cases.
Keywords: COVID-19; basic reproductive number; case fatality rate; doubling time; epidemic growth rate.
. 2020 Jul 23;26(7):768-773.
doi: 10.26719/emhj.20.084.
Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Egypt
Ghada Nasr Radwan[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32794161
- DOI: 10.26719/emhj.20.084
Abstract
in En , Arabic , French
Background: On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization declared the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Egypt is among the five countries reporting the highest number of cases in Africa.
Aims: We aimed to provide an overview of the epidemic features of COVID-19 in Egypt in order to help guide an effective lockdown-exit strategy.
Methods: The incidence proportions, case fatality rates (CFR), growth rates, doubling time (Td), basic reproductive number (R[SUB]0[/SUB]) and Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) were calculated weekly and reviewed.
Results: As of 21 May 2020, the epidemic growth rate and R[SUB]0[/SUB] have decreased significantly; the averages (?SD) were 0.35 (?0.33) and 2.6 (?1.55) respectively. However, the incidence proportion has increased to 14 cases /100 000 population.
Conclusion: COVID-19 transmissibility has declined but the incidence rate has increased, underscoring that any lockdown-exit strategy should include measures to strengthen physical distancing, and case-based interventions to prevent an uncontrolled upsurge of COVID-19 cases.
Keywords: COVID-19; basic reproductive number; case fatality rate; doubling time; epidemic growth rate.