Sally Furniss
Well-known member
Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of
influenza epidemics
Jonathan Dushoff, Joshua B. Plotkin, Simon A. Levin, and David J. D. Earn
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892; ?Harvard Society of Fellows, 78 Mount Auburn Street, Cambridge, MA 02138; and ?Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada L8S 4K1
Contributed by Simon A. Levin, October 6, 2004
Influenza incidence exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations in temperate regions throughout the world, concentrating the mortality and morbidity burden of the disease into a few months each year.
The cause of influenza?s seasonality has remained elusive. Here we show that the large oscillations in incidence may be caused by undetectably small seasonal changes in the influenza transmission rate that are amplified by dynamical resonance.
http://mathbio.sas.upenn.edu/Papers/DushoffPlotkinPNAS04.pdf
influenza epidemics
Jonathan Dushoff, Joshua B. Plotkin, Simon A. Levin, and David J. D. Earn
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892; ?Harvard Society of Fellows, 78 Mount Auburn Street, Cambridge, MA 02138; and ?Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada L8S 4K1
Contributed by Simon A. Levin, October 6, 2004
Influenza incidence exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations in temperate regions throughout the world, concentrating the mortality and morbidity burden of the disease into a few months each year.
The cause of influenza?s seasonality has remained elusive. Here we show that the large oscillations in incidence may be caused by undetectably small seasonal changes in the influenza transmission rate that are amplified by dynamical resonance.
http://mathbio.sas.upenn.edu/Papers/DushoffPlotkinPNAS04.pdf