tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Are fears of human-to-human transmitted bird flu overblown or does it make sense, based on current fatality rates, to anticipate a worst-case scenario for a future outbreak of H5N1 flu?
By Helen Branswell | February 14, 2012
A simple math problem lies at the heart of a heated debate over whether scientists should be allowed to publish provocative research into the transmissibility of H5N1 flu. Assuming the avian virus could spread easily among people, just how deadly would an H5N1 pandemic be for humans?
Flu scientists tend to shy away from that question, suggesting that it is not possible to predict how lethal the virus would still be after undergoing the necessary changes to adapt to human physiology. But inevitably, people look for clues to what appears to be the best predictor of the virus's future path—its current behavior. And that appears downright terrifying: as many as 59 percent of people known to have contracted the virus have died from the infection.
More specifically, of the 584 people who have tested positive with what the World Health Organization (WHO) confirms is H5N1, 345 have died. (These numbers are current as of February 8, 2012.)
But what if H5N1 isn't as deadly as the official numbers suggest?
...
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=h5n1-bird-flu-case-fatality-calculations
By Helen Branswell | February 14, 2012
A simple math problem lies at the heart of a heated debate over whether scientists should be allowed to publish provocative research into the transmissibility of H5N1 flu. Assuming the avian virus could spread easily among people, just how deadly would an H5N1 pandemic be for humans?
Flu scientists tend to shy away from that question, suggesting that it is not possible to predict how lethal the virus would still be after undergoing the necessary changes to adapt to human physiology. But inevitably, people look for clues to what appears to be the best predictor of the virus's future path—its current behavior. And that appears downright terrifying: as many as 59 percent of people known to have contracted the virus have died from the infection.
More specifically, of the 584 people who have tested positive with what the World Health Organization (WHO) confirms is H5N1, 345 have died. (These numbers are current as of February 8, 2012.)
But what if H5N1 isn't as deadly as the official numbers suggest?
...
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=h5n1-bird-flu-case-fatality-calculations