Doctor: Influenza pandemic inevitable
Doctor: Influenza pandemic inevitable
Doctor: Influenza pandemic inevitable
http://www.nwherald.com/MainSection/320608641572835.php
[published on Fri, Aug 18, 2006]
"My head is spinning as to what we will do," said Charles Schoenberg of Hoffman Estates is response to a town hall meeting Thursday night in
Crystal Lake on the subject of pandemic influenza.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width=300 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Dr. Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and expert in pandemic influenza spoke about the possibility of a catastrophic flu epidemic, as well as the necessity for preparations.
"I'm here to tell you that the likelihood of a pandemic is one in one, it's going to happen," said Osterholm adding, "The question is not if but when."
During the meeting from 7 to 9 p.m. at Crystal Lake South High School Osterholm, also the associate director of the U.S.
Department of Homeland Security's National Center for Food Protection and Defense, outlined his belief that a future worldwide flu epidemic is inevitable and that any effective response to such an epidemic must come from local authorities rather than relying on federal or even state-level support.
"All response to a pandemic is going to be local even though it is a global issue," Osterholm said. "People in Washington won't be making the decisions, I don't even think people in Springfield will."
A pandemic flu is different than seasonal flu in three aspects: It is a new strain of influenza; there is a lack of preexisting immunity in the human population; and the strain has an increased ability to kill, Osterholm said.
A moderate flu pandemic could potentially result in between 2 to 7.5 million deaths worldwide, while a severe pandemic ? comparable to that in 1918 ? could result in between 180 to 360 million deaths, Osterholm said.
The audience of 170 had to be moved outside during the meeting because of a false fire alarm at the high school, but members asked questions of Osterholm in an impromptu question and answer session in the parking lot.
One audience member asked Osterholm what precautions he and his family had personally taken in response to the possibility of a pandemic.
"We have stockpiled food and we have stockpiled N95 respirators," Osterholm said, referring to high-grade medical masks capable of preventing infection with influenza.
Another audience member asked if there was the possibility of vaccinating people before such a pandemic occurred.
"It's like trying to fill Lake Michigan with a garden hose," Osterholm said, adding that such an effort would have to happen in Asia, the most likely point of origin for such a flu where the costs of such vaccine would be difficult cover by local governments there.
"It the vaccine costs more than a penny, it's too expensive," Osterholm said.
Despite the severity of the scenario Osterholm laid out, he said he firmly believed that the world would survive such a pandemic, even though it would be a long and difficult process.
"We will get through it, just like every pandemic in our history," Osterholm said.
Ten things you need to know about pandemic influenza.
1. Pandemic Influenza is different from Avian influenza.
2. Influenza pandemics are recurring events.
3. The world may be on the brink of another pandemic.
4. All countries will be affected.
5. Widespread illness will occur.
6. Medical supplies will be inadequate.
7. Large numbers of deaths will occur.
8. Economic and social disruption will be great.
9. Every country must be prepared.
10. The World Health Organization will alert the world when the pandemic threat increases.
Source: World Health Organization
Dr. Michael Osterholm's additions to this list.
1. Vaccine and anti-viral drugs will have little impact on the pandemic if it occurs in the next several years.
2. The pandemic will come in waves.
3. Non-pharmaceutical interventions such as quarantine, infection control, social distance, etc. will likely have limited impact on the number of cases.
By DOUG SAYLOR
dsaylor@nwherald.com
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