Disease & Illness Seasonality & Waves

[gsgs]

... to examine why seasonal waves go down with only 5%-20% of the
populaton infected

... to examine why some strains dominate and others disappear

... to examine why flu is almost yearround in the tropes but dies in warmer
weather in regions more distant from the equator

... to examine where/how the new strains emerge than then become dominant

... to examine how immunity builds up and thus selects on dominance of
new strains

 

[gsgs]

Re: seasonality,waves

Re: seasonality,waves

new particularly successful strains usually cause a first strong,early
wave in USA,Europe and then becomes "normal" in the next years
once immunity had built up


below for the UK (couldn't easily find data from USA before 1997 ?)

also demonstrating the mystery why flu declined so much in the UK
since 2000 (but not in other countries)



http://magictour.free.fr/panflu/ukea1.PNG

 

[gsgs]

Re: seasonality,waves

Re: seasonality,waves

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3163940/?tool=pubmed
Why Do Influenza Virus Subtypes Die Out? A Hypothesis


http://www.setbb.com/fluwiki2/viewtopic.php?t=167&mforum=fluwiki2

 

[gsgs]

Re: seasonality,waves

Re: seasonality,waves

seasonal diseases , diseases that cause more deaths in winter than in summer in the USA
ordered by the magnitude of winter/summer quotient, not by total deaths

1.) almost all respiratory deaths
2.) other viral (except HIV) and chlamydial infection
3.) mening- anything
4.) sudden death, cause unknown
5.) most mental/nerval diseases, like Alzheimer,Parkinson,senility,dementia
6.) malnutrition,nutritional conditions, especially marasmus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marasmus
7.) septicemia


8.) almost all cardiovascular deaths , (ratio small (~1.05), but total number big)


9.) cancer (the ratio is very small (~1.02 , maybe 1.03 in lung cancer))


[to be updated and extended]
I'm making tables for ICD7,ICD8,ICD9a,ICD9b,ICD10 deaths with their seasonality
and influenza-dependence
except rare one, 766,854,581,581,821 conditions , minus unnatural ones

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

deaths 1-99 years only

r,J98,187, 3606776,12804,11223,respiratory
p,H70,245, 2658123,11478,10092,nerves,mental
h,I99,267,22350000,11179,10221,cardiovascular
m,E88,208, 1728273,11119,10322,metabolic
-,R99, 84,  578822,11074, 9754,other
s,M94,161,  262098,10977,10327,skin,skelett
i,B99,260,  933561,10997, 9711,infectious
g,Q99, 96,  128112,10933,10422,congenital
o,N49,168, 2066212,10875,10191,inner organs,male
d,K66,147,  786420,10691,10244,digestive
c,D48,419,11535000,10187, 9897,cancer
f,P35,120,   26026,10130,11313,female

a,all,2351,46650000,11045,10199

 

[gsgs]

Re: Disease & Illness Seasonality & Waves

there are small (but significant because of the large numbers) differences
in the seasonality of the various cancer deaths.

lung,breast,prostate cancer deaths occur 2-3% more often
in winter than in summer, independent from the severety of the flu-season
while pancreas,skin cancer deaths are balanced between summer and winter.


last ICD,
number of calculations,
total number of US-summer-deaths,
winter/summer ratio *10000,
flu-ratio * 10000,
name

D46,6, 138752,10574, 9610,Myelodysplastic syndromes
C91,5, 114602,10371,10038,Lymphoid leukaemia
C61,6, 631031,10356, 9872,Malignant neoplasm of prostate
C50,6, 932732,10291, 9825,Malignant neoplasm of breast
C34,7,2847268,10239, 9839,Malignant neoplasm of bronchus and lung
C67,6, 266292,10210, 9902,Malignant neoplasm of bladder
C71,6, 247416,10193, 9951,Malignant neoplasm of brain
C20,6, 222103,10162,10076,Malignant neoplasm of rectum
C64,5, 195485,10155, 9971,Malignant neoplasm of kidney, except renal pelvis
D12,5, 739756,10143,10050,Benign neoplasm of colon, rectum, anus and anal canal
C55,6, 102159,10128,10384,Malignant neoplasm of uterus, part unspecified
C53,6, 139328,10092,10171,Malignant neoplasm of cervix uteri
C92,5, 173418,10085, 9986,Myeloid leukaemia
C15,6, 233486,10065, 9862,Malignant neoplasm of oesophagus
C16,6, 379607,10050,10403,Malignant neoplasm of stomach
C56,6, 304309,10052, 9848,Malignant neoplasm of ovary
153,3, 347945,10052, 9465,Malignant neoplasm of large intestine, except rectum
C25,6, 609990,10045, 9806,Malignant neoplasm of pancreas
C43,6, 140242,10014, 9757,Malignant melanoma of skin
C22,7, 240640,10007, 9861,Malignant neoplasm of liver and intrahepatic bile ducts

C88,4,  84914,10652,10021,Malignant immunoproliferative diseases
C32,6,  86371,10455, 9902,Malignant neoplasm of larynx
D33,6,  18099,10384, 9968,Benign neoplasm of brain and other parts of central nervous system
147,6,  15959,10375, 9927,Malignant neoplasm of nasopharynx
238,4,  34829,10322,10091,Neoplasm of unspecified nature of eye, brain and other parts of nervous system
C14,4,  24348,10303,10270,Malignant neoplasm of other and ill-defined sites in the lip, oral cavity and pharynx
149,4,  12697,10280, 9439,Malignant neoplasm of pharynx, unspecified
C02,7,  46559,10265, 9981,Malignant neoplasm of other and unspecified parts of tongue
C44,6,  50613,10256, 9811,Other malignant neoplasms of skin
C95,5,  92297,10254, 9979,Leukaemia of unspecified cell type
C10,6,  22663,10243, 9831,Malignant neoplasm of oropharynx
C13,6,  11398,10140, 9992,Malignant neoplasm of hypopharynx
C94,5,  61788,10111, 9439,Other leukaemias of specified cell type
C17,5,  22736,10100,10192,Malignant neoplasm of small intestine
C81,6,  55156,10054, 9946,Hodgkin's disease
C54,5,  57496,10044, 9684,Malignant neoplasm of corpus uteri
200,6,  97720, 9983, 9650,Lymphosarcoma and reticulosarcoma
C62,6,  13195, 9964, 9815,Malignant neoplasm of testis
C23,5,  76267, 9926, 9988,Malignant neoplasm of gallbladder

223,3,    209,10717,14179,Benign neoplasm of kidney and other urinary organs
175,3,   2883,10692,10087,Malignant neoplasm of male breast
C09,3,   4473,10471,10040,Malignant neoplasm of tonsil
C93,5,   6308,10429,10236,Monocytic leukaemia
C69,6,   7451,10332, 9959,Malignant neoplasm of eye and adnexa
140,5,   2853,10093,11202,Malignant neoplasm of lip
235,3,    180,10055, 5938,Neoplasm of unspecified nature of ovary
D23,4,    396, 9898,10228,Other benign neoplasms of skin
C24,2,   9004, 9882,10363,Malignant neoplasm of other and unspecified parts of biliary tract
D27,6,   1251, 9799,11941,Benign neoplasm of ovary
D25,:,   2614, 9628,11541,Leiomyoma of uterus
216,4,    329, 9452, 9449,Benign neoplasm of skin
214,3,    136, 8750,10797,Lipoma

C85,:, 306980,10211,10144,Other and unspecified types of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma
239,Q, 278638,10183, 9910,Neoplasm of unspecified nature
239,P, 254616,10172,10084,Neoplasm of unspecified nature
D48,n, 388784,10158,10056,Neoplasm of uncertain or unknown behaviour of other and unspecified sites
239,M, 121762,10110, 9254,Neoplasm of unspecified nature of other and unspecified organs
239,S, 254657,10053, 9670,Neoplasm of unspecified nature of other and unspecified organs

 

[gsgs]

Re: Disease & Illness Seasonality & Waves

most of the various cardiovascular death, that sound so different
to me in symptoms and causes, still have all a quite uniform ~11%
winter-preference. The preference for severe flu-seasons is lower,
at ~2% in average.
These are the most common deaths, before cancer, and they dominate the
deaths-statistics.

I64,5,1554000,11261,10145,Stroke, not specified as haemorrhage or infarction
I25,5,7901425,11185,10052,Chronic ischaemic heart disease
I21,5,5037079,11115,10222,Acute myocardial infarction
I61,6, 923723,11140,10499,Intracerebral haemorrhage
I51,5, 805133,11280,10157,Complications and ill-defined descriptions of heart disease
I67,B, 755742,11275,10322,Other cerebrovascular diseases
I50,4, 672740,11396,10487,Heart failure
I11,7, 602248,11200,10874,Hypertensive heart disease
I70,6, 568350,11346,10370,Atherosclerosis
433,4, 538732,11022,10229,Cerebral thrombosis
I99,H, 433434,11116,10159,Other and unspecified disorders of circulatory system

421,3,  21519,11450,12462,Chronic endocarditis not specified as rheumatic
I13,5,  69298,11422,10752,Hypertensive heart and renal disease
437,4, 126380,11402,10395,Other and ill-defined cerebrovascular disease
431,3,   5099,11348,12397,Acute myocarditis not specified as rheumatic
422,2, 211593,11277,11092,Other myocardial degeneration
427,3, 393860,11263,10606,Cardiac dysrhythmias
I10,7, 135582,11247,10705,Essential (primary) hypertension
I71,6, 336669,11236, 9941,Aortic aneurysm and dissection
I24,5,  75957,11214,10311,Other acute ischaemic heart diseases
401,4,  21827,11191,12214,Essential benign hypertension
I12,7, 207489,11183,11174,Hypertensive renal disease
I09,6,  70119,11160,11790,Other rheumatic heart diseases
I35,7, 107058,11144, 9970,Nonrheumatic aortic valve disorders
458,B, 215719,11081, 9660,Other diseases of circulatory system
I27,7, 147875,11080,10124,Other pulmonary heart diseases
394,7,  96194,11061,10706,Diseases of mitral valve
I37,5,   1625,11057, 9989,Pulmonary valve disorders
467,:, 124735,11038, 9510,Other diseases of circulatory system
423,4,   3141,11005, 9603,Chronic disease of pericardium, non-rheumatic
459,D, 341303,10980,10311,Other disorders of circulatory system
I26,4, 125022,10979, 9683,Pulmonary embolism
I08,3,  32396,10926,10124,Multiple valve diseases
I80,7,  53374,10873,10200,Phlebitis and thrombophlebitis
459,C, 154513,10851,10310,Other disorders of circulatory system
I22,4,   9126,10845,10077,Subsequent myocardial infarction
I89,6,    996,10792,10899,Other non-infective disorders of lymphatic vessels and lymph nodes
396,4,  15663,10771,10274,Diseases of mitral and aortic valves
I60,6, 179247,10756, 9804,Subarachnoid haemorrhage
I28,4,    811,10739, 9005,Other diseases of pulmonary vessels
I82,6,  22292,10727, 9774,Other venous embolism and thrombosis
I01,6,   4005,10646,13415,Rheumatic fever with heart involvement
I72,6,  20621,10609, 9644,Other aneurysm
390,5,    520,10518,18713,Rheumatic fever without mention of heart involvement
I74,6,  53260,10414, 9984,Arterial embolism and thrombosis
445,3,  16387,10276, 9480,Gangrene
I81,5,   1339,10111, 9238,Portal vein thrombosis

 

[gsgs]

Re: Disease & Illness Seasonality & Waves

deaths from infectious diseases became rare these days.
Except pneumonia, which will be handled in the respiratory group later.
Most are Septicaemia - those a bit more seasonal than cardiovascular
deaths.
Very seasonal - comparable with pneumonia - are deaths from
viral meningitis and other viral infections, but it's not so significant,
it could be (bad) luck, the numbers are small.

A41,7, 375856,11443,10283,Other septicaemia
A81,<,  11716,15035,11840,Atypical virus infections of central nervous system
A87,:,   6477,14725,11089,Viral meningitis
A09,3,   9541,11308, 8005,Diarrhoea and gastro-enteritis of presumed infectious origin
A52,?,   6934,11138,14498,Late syphilis
138,I,  21585,10996,10702,Late effects of acute poliomyelitis
A16,6,   6708,10950,11296,Respiratory tuberculosis, not confirmed bacteriologically or histologically
B91,N,  46425,10751,10130,Sequelae of poliomyelitis
011,5,  60346,10750,12850,Pulmonary tuberculosis
138,I,  14456,10748,11614,Late effects of acute poliomyelitis
B99,9,  21188,10668,13345,Other and unspecified infectious diseases
B19,9,  62528,10648, 9759,Unspecified viral hepatitis
135,H,  12313,10530, 9453,Sarcoidosis
B90,S,  16879,10463,10636,Sequelae of tuberculosis
B37,4,   7591,10458,11263,Candidiasis
A86,7,   4610,10359,12508,Unspecified viral encephalitis
B24,<, 231956,10348, 6607,Unspecified human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] disease
133,J,  12353,10188,14329,Coccidioidomycosis

032,3,    186,19085,21120,Diphtheria
134,2,   1310,11519,11531,Other fungus infections
048,4,    413,11258,11824,Other enterovirus diseases of central nervous system
006,4,    657, 9878,13939,Amoebiasis
055,5,   1533, 8962,11828,Measles

 

[gsgs]

Re: Disease & Illness Seasonality & Waves

as expected, deaths from respiratory causes are most seasonal.
They are dominated by Pneumonia,Bronchopneumonia (unspecified)
with caused 39% more deaths in winter than in summer and
~16% more deaths in severe flu-winters as compared to mild flu-winters.
The last numer(16%) is surprisingly low, when you consider that deaths
attributed to flu were 500% higher in those seasons.
Maybe it's because flu-B kills well by pneumonia but not by cardiovascular
causes and so seasons dominated by flu-B are considered mild.
The other common respiratory death condition is chronic obstructive
pulmonary disease, which is half as seasonal as pneumonia
but ~double as seasonal as cardiovascular deaths.

Some of the respiratory conditions are "highly" seasonal,
~50% more winter deaths than summer deaths,
while others are only lightly elevated.
Maybe some medical expert can explain why ...

J44,4,1126927,11966,10784,Other chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
J18,?, 938899,13880,11434,Pneumonia, organism unspecified
485,5, 264447,13897,12089,Bronchopneumonia, organism unspecified
J43,5, 320672,11813,11176,Emphysema
J69,4, 157020,11752,10812,Pneumonitis due to solids and liquids
J98,C, 146301,11420,10294,Other respiratory disorders

J11,=,  13341,50034,61105,Influenza, virus not identified
J12,5,   7304,25319,17452,Viral pneumonia, not elsewhere classified
J06,6,   2071,22350,14411,Acute upper respiratory infections of multiple and unspecified sites
J22,5,    572,19492,15683,Unspecified acute lower respiratory infection
J21,7,   9752,18004,13423,Acute bronchiolitis
J04,6,   1539,16094,11453,Acute laryngitis and tracheitis
J40,6,  11376,15530,11790,Bronchitis, not specified as acute or chronic
J13,4,  14668,15504,12252,Pneumonia due to Streptococcus pneumoniae
481,4,  42341,15477,11735,Pneumococcal pneumonia
490,3,  29438,15346,13390,Lobar pneumonia

J32,7,   1582,13431,12387,Chronic sinusitis
463,3,    280,12606,13644,Acute tonsillitis
J41,7,  63096,12516,10438,Simple and mucopurulent chronic bronchitis
J02,6,    712,12078,11523,Acute pharyngitis
519,?,  46383,11832,10672,Other diseases of respiratory system
J47,6,  26330,11658,12335,Bronchiectasis
527,8,  82376,11640, 7771,Other diseases of lung and pleural cavity
519,8,  99663,11614, 9180,Other diseases of respiratory system
J46,7,  93014,11516,11422,Status asthmaticus
523,7,  16044,11489,10879,Pneumoconiosis due to silica and silicates (occupational)
515,4,  48401,11360,11194,Postinflammatory pulmonary fibrosis
519,?,  46557,11229,11244,Other diseases of respiratory system
J93,7,   8525,11194,10527,Pneumothorax
510,5,   6665,11061,10477,Empyema

 

[gsgs]

Re: Disease & Illness Seasonality & Waves

deaths from psychic,mental,brain,nerve conditions show surprisingly
high seasonality.
They are dominated by Alzheimer,Parkinson,senility,dementia

F03,:, 768753,12157, 9653,Unspecified dementia
G93,:, 205257,11730,10486,Other disorders of brain
G20,7, 198041,11621,10342,Parkinson's disease

G03,9,  20715,13517,10459,Meningitis due to other and unspecified causes
392,=,   2055,12812,12408,Otitis media with mastoiditis
298,E,  97316,12004,11160,Other psychoses
G80,4,  13776,11917,10424,Infantile cerebral palsy
G83,6,  12661,11764,11041,Other paralytic syndromes
R54,5,  53350,11501,10925,Senility
G72,7,  16784,11347,10271,Other myopathies
357,I,  31858,11219,11295,Inflammatory and toxic neuropathy
H54,`, 111315,11194, 9991,other
G35,6,  49984,11060,10358,Multiple sclerosis
335,3,  33881,10825, 9906,Anterior horn cell disease
357,I,  26249,10788,10665,Inflammatory and toxic neuropathy
374,F,  18878,10783,10481,other
F10,6, 119079,10775, 9980,Mental and behavioural disorders due to use of alcohol
348,3,  16438,10668, 9308,Motor neurone disease
385,?,   7807,10550,10238,other
G41,7,  41538,10311,10247,Status epilepticus
G04,7,   7972,10258,11063,Encephalitis, myelitis and encephalomyelitis
291,6,  10633,10235,10138,Alcoholic psychoses

 

[gsgs]

Re: Disease & Illness Seasonality & Waves

nutritional death conditions are diabetes mellitus in 90% of cases,
whose seasonality is similar to cardiovascular

E14,8,1166115,11094,10261,Unspecified diabetes mellitus

E41,4,   5726,12136,10267,Nutritional marasmus
E53,7,   7075,11991,11872,Deficiency of other B group vitamins
E15,4,   1298,11363, 8120,Nondiabetic hypoglycaemic coma
244,3,   3318,11367,10015,Myxoedema
E04,<,   6153,11231,12057,Other non-toxic goitre
E27,6,   7069,11103,10460,Other disorders of adrenal gland
D82,<,  14280,11069,10302,Immunodeficiency associated with other major defects
E23,7,   5015,11032,10249,Hypofunction and other disorders of pituitary gland
294,2,   1976,10981, 8555,Polycythaemia
D53,5,   4023,10961,10214,Other nutritional anaemias
289,I,  92507,10950,10329,Other diseases of blood and blood-forming organs
E66,6,  49721,10911,10235,Obesity
258,3,   2041,10724, 9452,Polyglandular dysfunction and other diseases of endocrine glands
D50,6,   2767,10657,11002,Iron deficiency anaemia
274,5,   2751,10617, 9611,Gout

E88,], 151769,11321,10013,Other metabolic disorders
289,C,  35088,10773, 9794,Other diseases of blood and blood-forming organs
289,G,  66636,10735,11288,Other diseases of blood and blood-forming organs
299,@,  25222,10591, 9173,Other diseases of blood and blood-forming organs
280,2,     90,14444,30000,Beriberi
E51,4,    249,10882, 8984,Thiamine deficiency

 

[gsgs]

Re: Disease & Illness Seasonality & Waves

the seasonality of digestive death conditions
is not very remarkable:

K26,6,  66677,11032,10969,Duodenal ulcer
K28,6,   5727,11012,10745,Gastrojejunal ulcer
K66,6,  46671,10946, 9506,Other disorders of peritoneum
K25,5,  65577,10930,10480,Gastric ulcer
K63,G,  48151,10911, 9983,Other diseases of intestine
K27,5,  32505,10900,10276,Peptic ulcer, site unspecified
K22,8,  36349,10831,10296,Other diseases of oesophagus
566,@,  19408,10793,10278,Abscess of anal and rectal regions
560,3,  44147,10653,10388,Intestinal obstruction without mention of hernia
K55,4, 114500,10648,10179,Vascular disorders of intestine
K57,5,  65674,10539,10393,Diverticular disease of intestine
570,>, 110676,10477, 9937,Intestinal obstruction without mention of hernia
569,3,  18362,10413,11053,Other disorders of intestine
572,6,  31514,10398, 9396,Chronic enteritis and ulcerative colitis
K65,6,  30985,10360,10389,Peritonitis

566,<,  13937,10108,10316,other
575,<,  13666, 9766,10611,other
K11,6,   1574,12121,11602,Diseases of salivary glands
566,@,  19371,11062,10219,other
568,3,    949,10568,11853,Peritoneal adhesions

 

[gsgs]

Re: Disease & Illness Seasonality & Waves

among the deaths from inner organ-problems we have the highest seasonality
in kidney-related deaths. Prostate deaths show a high correlation with severe
flu seasons, but small significance (flu won't go into prostate or kidney ?!)
Most deaths in this category are from cirrhosis of liver, which has low seasonality,
still more than cancer.

K74,5, 606937,10756, 9800,Fibrosis and cirrhosis of liver

N17,4,  68515,11717,10528,Acute renal failure
N19,4, 193296,11374,10429,Unspecified renal failure
599,4,  97768,11278,10406,Other disorders of urethra and urinary tract
590,7,  10740,11261,10802,Acute nephritis
N39,3,  89290,11248,10232,Other disorders of urinary system
N04,5,   4320,11182,10919,Nephrotic syndrome
578,3,  53909,11129,10365,Gastro-intestinal haemorrhage
592,7,  89176,11071,11121,Chronic nephritis
N35,6,   1907,11053,10491,Urethral stricture
N18,4, 146144,10982,10089,Chronic renal failure
N28,6,  63540,10965,10386,Other disorders of kidney and ureter, not elsewhere classified
N12,8,  27127,10800,10056,Tubulo-interstitial nephritis, not specified as acute or chronic
590,5,  85834,10638,10127,Infections of kidney
N20,5,   8400,10633,11100,Calculus of kidney and ureter
N40,6,  33609,10575,11948,Hyperplasia of prostate
N42,6,   4084,10506,11297,Other disorders of prostate
591,5,   2813,10479,11324,Hydronephrosis
587,5,   1799,10477, 9957,Renal sclerosis, unspecified
601,3,   1692,10401,12927,Prostatitis
K86,7,  78338,10380,10242,Other diseases of pancreas
K80,6,  42724,10065,10541,Cholelithiasis
604,3,   5468,10036,11758,Calculi of other parts of urinary system
575,3,  16535, 9771, 9895,Cholecystitis and cholangitis, without mention of calculi

N49,E, 200157,10711, 9923,other
608,<,  42890,10790,10412,Other
608,=,  40859,10599,10689,Other
607,:,  30590,10265, 9884,Other
617,9,  15854,10143, 9176,Other
597,3,    123,11950,12556,Urethritis, not sexually transmitted, and urethral syndrome
N26,2,    274,10912, 9711,Unspecified contracted kidney
N25,5,    883,10848,11200,Disorders resulting from impaired renal tubular function
N41,4,    617,10842, 9653,Inflammatory diseases of prostate

 

[gsgs]

Re: Disease & Illness Seasonality & Waves

other viruses , since week 40/2012


we already know that seasonality of deaths is _worse_ in the Southern states,
Europe and USA, although that's improving in the last decades.

Without flu, in mild flu-seasons we have an almost linear decline from Jan to Aug
(7 months) and then a linear increase Aug-Jan (5 months --> steeper)

what is it ? Hard to imagine why spring,fall are worse than August wrt. deathss.
Is it all just because of (unknown ?) respiratory viruses that spread better in cold
weather ? Differences in immunity ? Nutrition ?
We mostly live in heated rooms in winter