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Discussion thread VII - COVID-19: Endemic Stage

Expert predicts 'massive eighth wave' after Ont. lifts COVID isolation rules

August 31, 2022

snip


Zoutman urged people to continue to wear masks in indoor settings, warning that COVID-19 is a serious illness that "affects every organ in your body."

He also cautioned that people remain infectious "for at least ten days after your symptoms" and that wide spread of the virus could have profound implications on critical services like the health-care system and first responders.

"This policy is just closing our eyes and hoping it's all going to be OK."

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...ter-ont-lifts-covid-isolation-rules-1.6050428
 
Translation Google

SWITZERLAND:

updated Sep 8, 2022 at 10:47 am

3000 deaths more than expected - excess mortality is a mystery

For weeks, far more people have been dying in Switzerland than forecast by the Federal Statistical Office - what is behind it?
from

Dominic Fisher

That's what it's about

This year, 3,000 more people have died than expected.
The Federal Statistical Office had actually assumed a “death deficit” for this year.
Epidemiologists are puzzling over the exact causes of excess mortality.

There has been excess mortality in Switzerland for eleven weeks. This emerges from the number of deaths from the Federal Statistical Office (BFS). This means that more people die every week than the BFS expects based on its forecasts. The reasons for the unusual phenomenon are still unclear, according to Christian Althaus, epidemiologist at the University of Bern, such uninterrupted excess mortality "has not existed in recent history".

Deviation of forecasts is extreme

As reported by the Tamedia newspapers , there has always been excess mortality in previous years, for example in the hot summer of 2003, during the severe flu epidemic in winter 2015 or during the last two pandemic winters .

At the moment, however, the deviation from the forecasts is extreme: In 2020, up to August, 1,500 more people died than expected, in 2021 it was 1,300 people, and this year there are already 3,000 additional deaths, twice as many.

Part of the explanation: The FSO had expected a "death deficit" for this year after the excess mortality of the last two years and thus set the expected values ​​lower, since many people who, statistically speaking, would have lived until 2022 died prematurely. However, even more people died in the three summer months than in the summer months of 2021 or 2020.

Heatwave and Covid are a deadly mix

The epidemiologist Christian Althaus suspects that the hot summer and Covid caused the excess mortality. According to the Tamedia newspapers, the combination of the two factors could be deadly. Studies have shown that a previous Covid infection massively increases the risk of cardiovascular disease. The people affected are therefore also more vulnerable to the effects of the heat wave.
...
The epidemiologist Martin Röösli says: "In my opinion, it is quite possible that former Covid sufferers tolerated the heat less well." The 1,700 additional deaths in the last eleven weeks are definitely “worrying”, especially since it is difficult to assess how the situation will develop in the coming months.

Researchers will have to wait quite a while for final certainty: the FSO will not publish the cause of death statistics for 2022 for a year and a half at the earliest.

https://www.20min.ch/story/3000-tode...f-655376235646
 
https://www.denverpost.com/2022/09/11/colorado-teen-long-covid-lilly-downs/
A Colorado teen’s long COVID isn’t just persisting — after 2 years, it’s getting worse

https://www.denverpost.com/2021/10/01/long-covid-teens-colorado/
One treatment they saw improvement with was a 10-day course of remdesivir, which they gave to Lilly in mid-December after finding particles in her eccrine skin cells that they thought could be from the virus. The teenager’s lesions even briefly disappeared after she was administered the antiviral drug, which was the first COVID-19 treatment approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. But it was short-lived.

The lesions — and the pain they caused — came roaring back after the treatment stopped, according to her medical records.
Click to expand...

Remdesivir was the result of research into a drug to to treat FIP.

Clinical and Molecular Relationships between COVID-19 and Feline Infectious Peritonitis (FIP)
 
new variant BJ.1 in West Bengal
gains 5% per day against BA2
10 mutations in spike, still dscends fron BA2
 
COVID-19 is not "over". It is endemic since a long time. It will be around in various genetic variations. As this site said at the beginning - you need to take care of you. Evaluate your situation and keep up with the news.

It was always going to be this way.

Do not take medical advice from the internet - or politicians. If you have any medical questions, consult your medical practitioner.
 
Last edited:
we did not expect this. We were surprised in Dec.2020 by these new variants with many mutations,
evolving probably in immunodeficient people.

Without that the vaccines would still be 90% effective against infection
 
sequences in weeks 130-141 at cog_UK
BA.2.75 , 9,6,8,2,3,7,17,16,24,26,44,39
BA.2.75.2 : 0,1,0,0,0,0,2,0,7,7,9,14
BJ.1 : 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1
BA.5 : 6388,8468,8723,5987,5734,5124,3740,2970,2333,,1645 ,1706,1138
 
gs was it ever 90% effective at preventing infections? If it was it was only for a very short time at the peak of the antibody levels. It is excellent at preventing severe disease, regardless of the variant, but long term infection prtection is not a realistic possibility with current vaccine technologies. Covid is now an endemic and eminently survivalble disease for most of us aslong as you have had two vaccine shots and use a suitable antiviral as early as possible. By 'most of us' I mean those of us lucky enough to live in high income countries for the 'most of us' who do not this is still a very nasty pathogen until we are willing to share more equitably.
 
Translation Google

Covid-19: the eighth wave is looming in France, in relative indifference

Contaminations have been going up since the start of the school year… in relative indifference. The impact of this new wave remains difficult to predict.

Ouest France
Philippe Richard .
Modified09/20/2022 at 6:50 p.m.
Published on09/20/2022 at 6:25 p.m.

Eighth wave or rebound? Monday, the Minister of Health François Braun assured France Inter : “It is too early to say that this is the start of the eighth wave”. However, in the absence of braking measures, there is no reason for the increase in contamination to fade quickly, as the fall begins.

What can we anticipate from the impact of this wave? “An epidemic wave is not modeled like the climate, underlines Pascal Crépey, biostatistician at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health in Rennes. A boat caught in a storm will know the intensity of what it will undergo. In epidemiology, the intensity depends on the behavior of the boat, in this case the capacity of the population to implement barrier gestures. »

An unpredictable profile

Due to the number of factors involved - in particular the degree of immunity of the population and protection against serious forms - the epidemiologists of the Institut Pasteur had the greatest difficulty in modeling the 7th summer wave. The exercise will not be easier this time.

For the epidemiologist, we can expect “a measured increase until mid-October, a stabilization during the All Saints holidays and then a sharp increase. But there are a lot of unknowns. »

A new variant?

Especially since if the BA.5 variant, that of the 7th wave, is omnipresent, other "boys" of Omicron could add unpredictability, like this BA.2.75, on the way to becoming the majority in India and which nibbles percentages in France.

“At the hospital, we have not yet had a resurgence, recognizes Professor Gilles Pialoux, head of the infectiology department at Tenon hospital (Paris). The gray area concerns people at risk of a serious form. A third of those aged 60-79 had two booster doses, half of those over 80. »

The doctor has two other concerns: “ The conjunction with the flu, after a year without flu and a weak epidemic in 2021 . And especially the state in which the hospital is. The emergencies held up this summer, but in my hospital, we have 12% of beds closed due to lack of staff. »

No stopping before the line

How to explain the apparent indifference of the population and the authorities at the dawn of this eighth wave?

"Me, I don't get used to the death toll. 147 in the week is 147 too many . There is a populist drift in health measures, believes Gilles Pialoux. People want to hear it's over, but it's not true. I like the expression that the boss of the WHO had a few days ago: A marathon runner does not stop when the finish line is in sight. »

“ We know that binding measures have an expiry date, considers Pascal Crépey. They wear out over time. Taking action too early would result in public misunderstanding. It is important to keep cartridges. »

Can we expect a spontaneous return to more barrier gestures? “A large part of the population has confused the end of the state of health emergency with the end of the need for barrier gestures,” said Gilles Pialoux. If everyone had stopped wearing condoms when AIDS became a lesser threat... There is no need for an obligation to maintain individual preventive measures.”

https://www.ouest-france.fr/sante/v...e-remous-68c6818e-38e9-11ed-bf0e-79042fcc07f9
 
VE(case) was originally given as 95% by BNT and Moderna in the 2020-trials.
Then it was slightly lower against alpha in early 2021.
Then remember the big news from July/August, how surprised they
were when Israel first reported about vaccine-waning as delta appeared.
Then it took some more months for USA and Europe to observe this
and they decided for boosters but it was debated and WHO banned boosters
because they said there was no demonstrated waning vs. severe disease.

See the VE-charts , VE(case) was at 80%-90% before delta.
http://magictour.free.fr/ve-27.GIF
 
it becomes much better predictable when you also look what happens in other countries.
I do not see waves yet as severe as in 2020,2021 , since Hongkong in March 2022
 
gs
The trials end points did not include prevention of infection only severe sisease and death - hence the 95%. As the virus adapted to the hosts changing immune profile there has been a drop in VE but even a 2 shot series still gives excellent protection against the original trial end points. Effector B cell IGg contracts rapidly but T cells and memory B cells are much longer lasting, how much longer remains to be seen.
 
Denmark, weeks 34-38 , variants in %
BA.2.75 : 0.7,0.9,0.9,1.4,2.8
BQ.1* : 0.0,0.0,0.3,0.9,2.0
XBB : 0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.3
Netherlands, weeks 34-37
BA.2.75* : 1.0,1.9,1.8,1.5
BQ.1* : 0.0,0.0,1.2,3.1
XBB : 0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
 
hmm, JJackson, as a Brit, you maybe just only remember the AZ-vaccine ?
I just checked wikipedia ... also my posted charts above.
90%-95% against infection for mRNA for Wuhan and alpha
 
This is NOT medical advice. If you have any medical questions consult your medical practitioner.


Going into this fall I am still doing everything I can to prevent COVID-19. So far I have not contracted it (to my knowledge). Still:

1. I wear a clean 95N mask indoors.

2. No inside restaurants or other inside entertainment venues.

3. No crowds.

4. Directed trips to inside areas like the grocery store. I do not casually shop the store. I have a list and know what I am getting ahead of time.

5. Carry hand sanitizer packets in my purse. Carry liquid hand sanitizer in the cup holders of my car.

6. Wipe down or spray everything coming into the house.

7. My animals are not allowed to be in contact with any other animals.


I do not care what people think. I plan to venture out frequently to outside venues as the weather becomes less humid but I will still avoid crowded situations.

I have not taken the new revised booster shot yet. I might get it. I have not decided. I did get the original two shots and followed with two boosters.

I posted because I want to support people who do not want to get COVID-19 and are still trying to prevent infection. COVID-19 is endemic and it has not magically disappeared.

I have never supported government mandated lockdowns, masks, vaccines, etc. for the general population. However, I do think people in congregate settings, like nursing homes, need to be protected.

Thank you for viewing and take care of yourself. :)
 
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailydeaths_select_00
The blue bars show daily deaths. The red line is the 7-day moving average of deaths.

us-state-trends(1).png
 
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