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Discussion thread VII - COVID-19: Endemic Stage

May 2, 2022
12:17 AM CST
Last Updated 3 days ago

South Africa's Aspen COVID-19 vaccine plant risks closure after no orders, executive says

By Tim Cocks

JOHANNESBURG, May 1 (Reuters) - Africa's first COVID-19 vaccination plant, touted last year as a trailblazer for an under-vaccinated continent frustrated by sluggish Western handouts, risks shutting down after receiving not a single order, a company executive said on Saturday.

South Africa's Aspen Pharmacare (APNJ.J) negotiated a licensing deal in November to package and sell Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ.N) COVID-19 vaccine and distribute it across Africa.

The World Health Organization (WHO) called the deal a "transformative moment" in the drive towards levelling stark inequalities in access to COVID vaccines.

With only a sixth of adults in Africa fully vaccinated, according to the latest WHO figures from the end of March, Aspen's agreement to sell an Aspen-branded COVID-19 vaccine, Aspenovax, throughout Africa seemed like a sure bet.

South Africa, which has vaccinated 30% of its population, also looks set to experience a fifth wave of infections.

Yet, "There've been no orders received for Aspenovax," Aspen senior director Stavros Nicolaou told Reuters over the phone.

"If we don't get any kind of vaccine orders, then clearly there'll be very little rationale for retaining the lines that we're currently using for production," he said of the COVID-19 vaccine plant in Gqeberha, Eastern Cape.
...
https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...ve-2022-05-01/
 
No wonder Fauci didn't go to that shindig.

https://news.yahoo.com/rare-cases-covid-returning-pose-172822931.html

MATTHEW PERRONE

Mon, May 9, 2022, 12:28 PM

...
Charness says Paxlovid remains a highly effective drug, but he wonders if it might be less potent against the current omicron variant. The $500 drug treatment was tested and OK'd based on its performance against the delta version of the coronavirus.

“The ability to clear the virus after it’s suppressed may be different from omicron to delta, especially for vaccinated people,” said Charness, who works for Boston's VA health system.
...

Pfizer tested Paxlovid in the highest-risk patients: unvaccinated adults with no prior COVID-19 infection and other health problems, such as heart disease and diabetes. The drug reduced their risk of hospitalization and death from 7% to 1%.

But that doesn’t reflect the vast majority of Americans today, where 89% of adults have had at least one shot. And roughly 60% of Americans have been infected with the virus at some point.

“That’s the population I care about in 2022 because that’s who we’re seeing -- vaccinated people with COVID -- so do they benefit?” asked Dr. David Boulware, a University of Minnesota researcher and physician.

There's no clear answer yet for vaccinated Americans, who already have a hospitalization rate far below 1%.

That may come from a large, ongoing Pfizer study that includes high-risk vaccinated people. No results have been published; the study is expected to wrap up in the fall.

Pfizer said last year that initial results showed Paxlovid failed to meet the study’s goals of significantly resolving symptoms and reducing hospitalizations. It recently stopped enrolling anyone who's received a vaccination or booster in the past year, a change Boulware says suggests those patients aren’t benefitting.

At a minimum, the preliminary data should be released to federal officials, Boulware said. “If the U.S. government is spending billions of dollars on this medicine, what’s the obligation to release that data so that they can formulate a good policy?"...
 
Geert Vanden Bossche did an interview in early May and said he expected a variant to evolve in the next 2 months that will completely evade immunity. He predicted a very bad scenario. I don't like to take that gloomy of an approach, but it does seem like Covid is becoming a chronic illness for a lot of people with very frequent mild infections. I've wondered if this aggressive monkeypox spread is due to suppressed or hijacked immunity fighting Sars2 viruses.

I'm going to be aware but not lose sleep over the possibility.

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/how-often-can-you-be-infected-with-the-coronavirus/
The omicron variant was different enough from delta, and delta from earlier versions of the virus, that some reinfections were to be expected. But now, omicron seems to be evolving new forms that penetrate immune defenses with relatively few changes to its genetic code.

“This is actually for me a bit of a surprise,” said Alex Sigal, a virologist at the Africa Health Research Institute. “I thought we’ll need a kind of brand-new variant to escape from this one. But in fact, it seems like you don’t.”

An infection with omicron produces a weaker immune response, which seems to wane quickly, compared with infections with previous variants. Although the newer versions of the variant are closely related, they vary enough from an immune perspective that infection with one doesn’t leave much protection against the others — and certainly not after three or four months.
 
2 variants in the same household at the same time in fully vaccinated mother and daughter.

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/othe...-first-case-of-omicron-ba4-variant/ar-AAXzNDx
COVID-19: Tamil Nadu reports first case of Omicron BA.4 variant
Yesterday 9:47 pm

...
The teenager's family was living in a gated residential community at Navalur on the famous Old Mahabalipuram Road, Chennai. The mother and daughter developed mild flu-like illness on May 4 and turned out to be COVID-19 positive after undergoing an RT-PCR test.

The mother was detected with the BA.2 sub-lineage of the coronavirus variant while the daughter had BA.4 variant when the results of the samples collected from them were released on May 19, the release said.

"They were self-isolated in their house and became alright within three days of their illness. Full vaccination has helped them to recover quickly and resume routine work after seven days of their illness," it said.
 
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattl...virus-mutant-contains-ghost-of-pandemic-past/
Dominant coronavirus mutant contains ghost of pandemic past

May 26, 2022 at 8:43 am Updated May 27, 2022 at 12:19 am
...
Scientists are still trying to figure out how virulent these new mutants are. Long said he hasn’t seen anything that answers that question for him, but Liu said emerging data points toward more serious illness. Liu said the subvariants have properties suggesting they spread more efficiently cell-to-cell.

The virus “just hides in the cell and spreads through cell-to-cell contact,” Liu said. “That’s more scary because the virus does not come out for the antibody to work.”...
 
Source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/arrivecan-app-border-1.6472060

Montreal couple forced into 14-day quarantine for failing to fill out ArriveCAN entry app
CBSA says it will now give Canadian land travellers a warning the first time they fail to complete the app
Sophia Harris · CBC News · Posted: Jun 02, 2022 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: 9 hours ago

Ron Daymond and Evelyn Herskovitz were stunned when they were ordered to quarantine for 14 days after returning to the Canadian land border on May 22 following a day-trip to Plattsburgh, N.Y.

The fully vaccinated couple said a border officer told them they must quarantine because they didn't fill out the ArriveCAN app.

"It's ludicrous," said Herskovitz from her home in Montreal. "People don't even have to quarantine for 14 days now when they have COVID, so it doesn't make any sense."

The federal government has dropped most travel restrictions for fully vaccinated people. However, it still requires them to use the ArriveCAN mobile app or desktop version to submit their travel and COVID-19-related health information within 72 hours before their arrival to Canada...
 
Helen Branswell
@HelenBranswell
·
Jun 15
We're all going to catch Covid, more than once.
Now seems to be Dr Fauci's turn. Wishing him a speedy recovery.

...
Bridget to the Left
@bridget857
Replying to
@HelenBranswell

I’m not. I REFUSE. I wear N95, stay home or outdoors. Stores only at off hours. It CAN be done.
...
Helen Branswell
@HelenBranswell
·Jun 15
Replying to
@bridget857

To what end?
...
Stuart Ludlow
@StuartLudlow
Replying to
@HelenBranswell
and
@bridget857

What is the impact of repeated infections on morbidity?

Quote Tweet
ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ

@MackayIM
· Jun 14
Replying to @StuartLudlow and @RealHughJackman

I don't know in the longer term, & that will be the important aspect to watch.

https://twitter.com/StuartLudlow/sta...36820283596800
 
https://www.portugalresident.com/vaccines-tweaked-to-omicron-arriving-in-september/
Vaccines tweaked to Omicron “arriving in September”

By Natasha Donn-
2nd June 2022

2nd generation vaccines only likely to be ready full year later

The unspoken pandemic dilemma got a little bigger today – a day when there were more deaths associated with Covid-19 than there have been on any single day since February.
The reason is that vaccines tweaked to ‘new variants’ are still at least five months away – while ‘2nd generation vaccines’ promising “more potent immunity, reduced transmissibility, cheaper manufacturing, easier transport, and mutation-proofing” won’t be ready for at least 17 months.

That leaves the sector of society most vulnerable to infection (the elderly and immunocompromised – already multiply-jabbed) with no option but to keep receiving ‘boosters’ that offer dubious protection.

This is why health minister Marta Temido has intimated there are no immediate plans for a ‘mass administration of boosters’ to the wider population. There would be no point.

The people who continue to be affected by Omicron (a variant with sub-variants that are milder than predecessor strains of SARS-CoV-2) are invariably the ones dying now.


The latest DGS figures show in terms of infections and deaths Portugal is way beyond the red lines set by specialists. As Marta Temido explained yesterday, the huge jump in the number of infections has a lot to do with the increased transmissibility of the BA.5 strain of Omicron circulating in Portugal.

Right now, deaths are running at 41 per 1 million inhabitants over 14-days (specialists had set the limit at 20 per million – but this has proved impossible due to increased transmissibility of dominant strain/s and the waning effect of current (ancestral) vaccines)...
 
I was watching an interview that was done on June 14th with a doctor who practices in a university town outside of Detroit, MI. He said that many of his patients were sick enough to call for help during the Delta era (August- December.) Then when Omicron took over in January, his calls stopped. The only way he learned patients had Omicron was when he saw or talked to them for other reasons, and they would casually mention they had had a very mild infection.

But about a month prior to the interview, he started getting calls again from patients who were quite ill with sars2 again. The numbers don't look too bad in his county.

https://www.washtenaw.org/3108/Cases

But he might consult outside his area.
 
President:

"There's going to be another pandemic. We have to think ahead. And that's not something the last outfit did very well..."

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-s...speech-1717927

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have no idea what he is talking about. Another COVID-19 wave? Some other disease?

There will be more COVID-19 waves as the disease evolves. I have no idea how mild or virulent these waves will be. Hopefully only mild.

As to another pandemic - sure, there will be another one because it is the human condition. When you think about it, the seasonal flu is actually a pandemic - every year. It circulates around the world infecting people on every continent. So....

With these uncertain times it makes common sense to be prepared. In Florida we are nearing hurricane season so most people should try to stock a few days of non-perishable food. A battery fan. An extra month of prescriptions.

Economics are a mess. Inflation is not transitory. Who can afford food and gas? The markets and digital currencies are down. Housing seems to be cooling in some areas. Caution on finances is in order.

Supply chains are still a problem. Global food stuffs may be added to the list of shortages.

War in Ukraine, China talking strong about Taiwan......other troubled spots...

People are overwhelmed. The President needs to be more careful with his words.

In his comments he also talked about the new approval for pediatric COVID-19 vaccines for the under 5 group. As usual FluTrackers does not take a position on a vaccine.

If you have any medical questions, consult your medical practitioner.
 

From the study:
the risks were evident in those who were unvaccinated, had 1 shot, or 2 or more shots prior to the second infection

So the shots don't protect against risk from a second infection? Need more details like how long since last shot or last infection. A study I read put average immunity from infection, (probably pre-omicron, pre-delta), at 300 days. Topol indicates only 4 months for the shots in his analysis of that study.

https://erictopol.substack.com/p/a-reinfection-red-flag
Booster shots can help, especially when more than 4 months have elapsed from primary vaccination or a third shot.

Just more confirmation that the naturally immune are being unscientifically discriminated against.

Something very interesting in his article is his concern about the possible Omicron booster:

The Omicron BA.1-specific vaccine booster remedy?
The worry is centered about the immune escape of these subvariants, which was characterized in a recent Nature paper with the conclusion “Together, our results indicate that Omicron may evolve mutations to evade the humoral immunity elicited by BA.1 infection, suggesting that BA.1-derived vaccine boosters may not achieve broad-spectrum protection against new Omicron variants.” That is to say, besides vulnerability to reinfections, the Omicron BA.1 specific vaccines, due to become available this Fall, may not provide enhanced protection as anticipated. BA.4/5 are too different from BA.1 with respect to how our immune system sees them. Even the head of BioNTech has recently warned about the potential for further immune escape and the reduced impact of vaccines, including an Omicron-BA.1 specific one.

He's still promoting the Wuhan strain vaccines and boosters, but when it comes to an Omicron vaccine, he is on the same page as Geert Vanden Bossche:

https://twitter.com/GVDBossche/statu...C9gYPRgJ8qAAAA
 
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