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Discussion thread VII - COVID-19: Endemic Stage

I'm going to pose an idea here that might explain why issues of discrimination against people based on their vaccine status is happening in America and closely linked countries, but is relatively rare elsewhere in the world:

It's the political divide. One of our political parties is perhaps 90% vaccinated (and perhaps 70% pro-mandate and pro-mask) and the other one is perhaps 50% vaccinated (and almost uniformly anti-mandate and anti-mask). So when people advocate discrimination against people based on their vaccine status, it's actually a proxy for discriminating against them based on their political beliefs (something the courts have repeatedly ruled is illegal; you cannot fire an employee or evict a tenant or refuse service to a customer based on how he votes). As the more-vaccinated party is currently in power in the US, the sanctions are being proposed against unvaccinated people. I would not be too surprised to see at least an attempt to do the reverse if the other party takes power in the future.

Even more disturbingly, given the ethnic and racial divides in the US, vaccination status (and political party as above) can also be used as proxies to discriminate along those lines as well.

Countries whose political divisions have nothing to do with vaccination where the parties are equally vaccinated (Japan, India, Israel, Germany, etc.) or that do not have free and fair elections (Russia, China, much of the Middle East), would be less likely to punish people based on their vaccination status. China may be instituting draconian measures to control the virus, but note that they really don't care if you're vaccinated or not, as long as you're not infectious right now.
 
in all our flu-studies and discussions since 2006 , did I ever realise that the vaccine is more effective
against severe disease than just infection ? I don't remember.
And did we ever see these examinations about waning as we see it now with COVID ?
I remember one suggestion tha elderly might get 2 shots 3 months apart in a severe season.
http://magictour.free.fr/ukv-w05.GIF
 
I had to learn that over the decades in the US-forums : it's mainly all about Dems vs. Reps.
Pandemic, financial crash, war is secondary, what counts is how that affects the
Dems vs. Reps issue . And no other party has a real chance.

As for Germany it's still political, Economy vs. Health as in USA. But we have
a coalition-government Vaccine passports is a big issue currently.

It depends on personal experience, memory,, how hard the country was hit in the past.
Politics does what it anticipates the populations wants and thinks, not so much,
what science predicts. So 1918 is hardly even known in Germany, never in the
headlines, WW1/revolution overruled it. Swine-flu 1976 -that's an US-problem.
Pandemic ? What's that ? How do you spell it, translate it ?
I don't remember Merkel ever talking about birdflu and the first time I remember her
talking about COVID was 2020-03-12 , (correctly) predicting that
probably >70% of us will get it. Parliament was shocked..


Now, what COVID clearly shows is, that Chinese communism is superior ...
 
could science have predicted, that masks work ?
could science have predicted that it transmits by aerosols and hardly by surfaces ?
could science have predicted that vaccines wane ?
could science have predicted the variants ?
(not in the early statements of experts or vax-producers)
could we have eliminated it in Feb-Mar2020 with China-like measures
could China have prevented virus-exports in early Jan ?
 
In the previous Discussion thread (VI) the origin of the Omicron variant came up with a number of hypothesis explaining its unexpectedly high number of amino acid changes and that it was rooted far back in the sequence data with no obvious linkage to any of the currently circulating variants.
The three main theories are that it came from an immunocompromised individual, was a reverse zoonotic event followed by de novo zoonosis or sequential evolution in a poorly sampled area in a low income Southern African country.
TWiV 861: Rough draft of Omicron origins examines two papers looking into these with the aid of guest evolutionary biologist Nels Elde.
Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant

Persistent SARS-CoV-2 Infection with Accumulation of Mutations in a Patient with Poorly Controlled HIV Infection
 
In answer to your questions IMHO
1) Yes - as a respiratory pathogen masks should reduce the velocity of exhaled breath preventing projection of either an air borne or droplet pathogen. For droplets it should also trap some of the inhaled and exhaled droplets.
2) Probably not - the fomite/ droplet ratio has been a surprise given the ratio for flu and other respiratory pathogen and early viral persistence data on various surfaces. These data suffered from the live viral culture restriction to BSL3 which has been at a premium throughout the pandemic leading to an over-reliance on RNA detection.
3) Yes - all vaccines effectiveness contract over time once the acute phase of the disease is over, it is evolutionarily counter productive to tie up the immune system by focusing on past infections which you may never meet again.
4) Yes - firstly because the virus was in a new host it must adapt to this host's biology, secondly the host is a moving target, in terms of its immune response, as more of the population gain resistance to reinfection by the same strain by either prior infection or vaccination. Immune evasion was expected.
5&6) No - there were just too many asymptomatic/pre-symtomatic carriers capable of seeding new clusters before we knew what we were dealing with or able to test for it. The sequence data was release on the 10th of Jan 2020, but could have been released a week or more earlier, but it would not have made a difference it was 'out of the box'. Even with vaccines and lots of tests China is having to use drastic restrictions just to keep numbers under control.
 
GoFundMe statement on the trucker's protest funds. This permanent suspension of the trucker's account comes after a temporary freeze and then reinstatement.

These kinds of actions are really not productive for societal stability. Let people protest peacefully. It is a human right.


"Article 20
  1. Everyone has the right to freedom of peaceful assembly and association." link

The power elites are really going down so many wrong roads. You are encouraging long lasting civil disobedience by your actions now. The classic "making a mountain out of a mole hill."




GoFundMe

@gofundme
·
13h
To simplify the process for our users, we will be refunding all donations to the Freedom Convoy 2022 fundraiser. This refund will happen automatically—you do not need to submit a request. Donors can expect to see refunds within 7-10 business days.
25.4K
7.1K
4.3K
GoFundMe

@gofundme
·
13h
The update we issued earlier enabled all donors to get a refund and outlined a plan to distribute remaining funds to verified charities selected by the Freedom Convoy organizers. However, due to donor feedback, we are simplifying the process and automatically refunding donations.
5.9K
1.6K

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The above is NOT a political statement.

FluTrackers adopted the Universal Declaration of Human Rights as part of our mission statement in 2006. link

We have a history of supporting peaceful protests:


FluTrackers Recommendations for Protestors (from 2011)

1) Attend events with friends. Do not go alone. Use the Protest Buddy System.

2) Make sure friends and family know where you are going and when you are expected back home.

3) Take cell phone or other communication device.

4) Take a plastic bottle filled with water if you are going to be attending all day. Dress appropriately, take a sweater or coat, if appropriate.

5) Avoid any kind of violence. If you see anyone with a weapon leave that area immediately. Protests can turn into a riot. Stay safe.

6) If approached by police, follow their instructions. Do not resist arrest.

7) If you have any kind of medical issues, reconsider attending event. If arrested, be sure the authorities know you have medical needs.

8) In the spirit of Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King - the only effective protest is a non-violent one. Do not give the authorities a reason to arrest you.

FluTrackers Safety Recommendations for Protestors - USA & Canada (from 2011)
 
I wish they had found a better company to handle donations. I hope BaitAndSwitchMe doesn't get to keep processing fees.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technol...dian-trucker-money-fraud-investigation-threat
GoFundMe backtracks on redistributing money for Canadian truckers, under threat of fraud investigation
Crowdfunding platform says it will automatically refund $10 million in donations

By Timothy Nerozzi FOXBusiness

...
GoFundMe encouraged donors to submit a refund form, and said that any funds not properly returned to donors would be donated to a charity chosen by the Freedom Convoy.

Within hours, however, GoFundMe walked back the refund applications, instead announcing it would be refunding donors automatically.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said that he would "investigate" the company, accusing them of fraud...
 
I think that is an astute observation, Alert. Public health law is a potent weapon in the wrong hands. I'd like to abolish the whole concept. The only 'ism' I think is worth anything now is individualism.
 
Source: https://www.nny360.com/news/publics...cle_d90f4b1f-86ab-58eb-a112-1e28cc5165cc.html

COVID rebellion brews in Canada, sending warning across globe
BY DEREK DECOLET and BRIAN PLATT
Bloomberg News (TNS)
Feb 5, 2022 Updated 19 hrs ago


Canadians have done as they were told during the pandemic. They lined up for shots until the country had one of the developed world’s best vaccination rates; they endured some of North America’s longest lockdowns; and they’ve complied with a wide assortment of curfews and quarantines.

But even in a society known for its civility and deference to authority, many are reaching their limit.

Pent-up frustration and rage have burst into the downtown core of the nation’s capital, with hundreds of truckers and other protesters occupying Ottawa’s streets for nearly a week to oppose vaccine mandates. The group has been championed on Fox News and by Joe Rogan, Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Demonstrators have built makeshift shelters and collecting propane tanks, vowing to stay until vaccine mandates are lifted.

The populace may disapprove of their un-Canadian-like antics, but there is a growing sense of support for the main message they’re delivering — COVID restrictions no longer make sense. The protests have been the talk of the nation, around dinner tables, on talk shows and social media. And they serve as a warning shot not just to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau but to leaders everywhere: If even Canada is starting to resist pandemic measures, what does that mean for the rest of the world?

“People are starting to ask, what is the point or what is the efficacy of these restrictions?’” said Shachi Kurl, president the Angus Reid Institute, a research firm in Vancouver.

A late January poll by the institute found 54% of Canadians want to end restrictions and let people self-isolate if they’re at risk. That was up 14 percentage points from just a few weeks earlier. Omicron, a variant that’s highly infectious but appears less likely to cause serious illness, has changed the perception of risk, Kurl said.

The reaction is “not knee-jerk. It’s just been building,” she said...
 
The Ottawa mayor declared an emergency link and the police began seizing fuel from the truckers. Earlier, the truckers convoy left Quebec City. link A tale of two cities.

Peace for Public Health

------------------------------------------------------

Update: Apparently the police decided not to seize the fuel (from at least one set of truckers) because the truckers needed it to heat their cabs for sleeping overnight. It is currently 15F which is way below freezing.
 
Last edited:
1) blame it on WHO. They couldn't figure it out all the years
2) do SARS1 or MERS or seasonal corona transmit by fomites ?
3) it doesn't wane for measles and some others, Sahin didn't expect it waning so fast
4) still all the experts afaik were surprised by alpha,delta,omicron
5+6) Chinese restrictions were drastic only locally.
As a big Country they felt the importance for the whole while
in Europe,Iran countries didn't care about spread to the rest of Europe/World
USA/Trump didn't understand its danger, no pandemic experience.
 
Apparently no one from the Canadian government has met with the truckers' protest group yet? The mayor of Ottawa has declared an emergency in the capital city and no one from the government has met with the truckers leadership? Fail.

The situation needs to be diffused - not escalated.

I am talking about public safety here. The residents of Ottawa are at their wits' end and nothing good will come out of that frustration.

Someone - show some leadership at the top levels. Work out a compromise. Or, do you want to make all of the pandemic models come true?

The Universal Declaration of Human Rights link

Take care.


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Disclosure: In the past I have spent a lot of time in Canada. It is heaven on earth. Beautiful.
 
1) My comment was based on logic rather than any hard data which is extremely difficult to generate. Challenge studies could give the answers but come with a minefield of ethical problems.
2) There was some evidence for SARS but I know of none for MERS. For seasonal colds I think there is, mainly anecdotal based on no other know route of exposure.
4) I do not know which experts you are referring to but some I know expected it, as did I. I have been a little surprised at the mutation rate which I expected the exonuclease to limit.
5 & 6) They have taken a different approach to the rest of the world by taking severe local restrictions at the source and not giving the virus a chance to spread. It has a cost at a local level but allows most of the country to avoid infections. They have had 74 cases and 3 deaths per million population as opposed to a global average of 51,000 & 740 - I think they made the better choice.
 
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