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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

NpIs can delay it ... as long as they are maintained ..., until seasonality or immunity help to keep it down.

Vermont had kept it down (delayed) but now they get a wave some weeks later,
although maybe a smaller one.
France,Italy,Spain .... let's see
 
I don't have access to GISAID , Charite no longer publishes German sequences and WHO files
are too big and these webpages with complicated graphics often don't work
in my browser, so I leave it to others. I keep checking cog_uk and the RKI-reports
and the tweets. No mentioning of N501Y in the recent RKI-report

----------------------
2,8,3,1,4,5,3 sequences at cog_uk in weeks 91,...,98 of lineage AY.5 with N501Y
 
Algeria -

Translation Google

22 to 23% of people who contracted Covid-19 discovered their diabetes by chance

Posted On: Wednesday, 17 November 2021 15:21

ALGIERS- Professor Amar Tbaibia, head of internal medicine at the public hospital establishment (EPH) Birtraria d'El Biar in Algiers, said on Wednesday that 22 to 23% of people who contracted the coronavirus (Covid-19) have discovered by chance that they had diabetes.

22 to 23% of people who contracted Covid-19 discovered by chance that they had diabetes, said Prof. Tbaibia in a statement to the APS, on the sidelines of the awareness week organized by the EPH of El-Biar in Kennedy Square, on the occasion of the celebration of World Diabetes Day, saying that the factor that caused diabetes has not yet been determined.

According to a study and medical monitoring carried out by the internal medicine services of the EPHs of Birtraria, Salim Zemirli (Algiers) and the University Hospital of Constantine on a sample made up of 2,207 adults admitted to hospital after having contracted the Coronavirus, the rates of patients with diabetes were 23% at the EPH of Birtraria, 46% at the EPH of Zemirli and 59% at the EHU of Constantine.

The rate of people admitted to hospital who accidentally found out they had diabetes is between 22% and 23%.

He insisted on the need to ensure a rigorous follow-up of the categories which ignored their disease (diabetes) and contracted the Coronavirus in order to discover the triggering factor of diabetes and if the virus (covid-19) was at the origin.

Patients over the age of 70 and suffering from type 1 and 2 diabetes are the most exposed to the risk of contamination by the Coronavirus, because of their vulnerability and fragility and the other chronic diseases from which they suffer.

The rate of patients who contracted Covid-19 and discovered, by chance, that they had diabetes is 14.4% worldwide, he said, based on data from World Health Organization (WHO).

In addition, the same specialist predicts an increase in the number of diabetics in the future, due to sanitary confinement and overeating.

The internal medicine service had organized the day against diabetes, in addition to educating citizens to be vaccinated against Covid-19.

In this regard, Pr. Tbaibia called on all people suffering from chronic diseases, in particular hypertension, diabetes and obesity, to be vaccinated, being the most exposed to the risk of contamination.

https://www.aps.dz/sante-science-te...ovid-19-ont-decouvert-par-hasard-leur-diabete
 
https://twitter.com/M_Ziesmann/statu...25583973543938
Michael Ziesmann Retweeted



Michael Ziesmann @M_Ziesmann

Auch im United Kingdom schaut man irritiert nach #Österreich: #Wien #ZiBspezial #ZiB2 #LockdownFürUngeimpfte @austriatourism


9:07 AM · Nov 16, 2021·Twitter Web App



https://twitter.com/i/status/1460369926770864135


Dr. Eli David @DrEliDavid

Austria today: Police stopping people and checking their papers to make sure the unvaccinated are not hiding among the vaccinated. 2021. Unbelievable.

Video at link above.

From Michael Ziesmann

4:11 PM · Nov 15, 2021·Twitter for Android
 
UK -

Tragedy as hero doctor who worked on the Covid frontline dies of disease

By Daniel Keane
3 hours ago
...
Dr Irfan Halim, described by friends as a “gift of a man”, passed away at the Royal Brompton hospital in South Kensington on Sunday following a nine-week battle with the virus.

It came just two months after he had taken up work on the Covid intensive care unit (ICU) wards at Swindon Hospital, where it is believed he contracted the virus before collapsing during a shift on September 10. Dr Halim was fully vaccinated and wore full personal protective equipment (PPE) at all times during his time on the wards.

After spending several weeks in ICU in Swindon, Dr Halim was transferred to the Royal Brompton on September 23 where he received extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) treatment. He died in the arms of his wife Saila, who said she was “whispering prayers and love into his ears”.
...
His tragic death occurred just a few weeks after his father Kamal, also a doctor, passed away from Covid in late September, close friends of the family said. He was buried and a funeral took place while his son was in the ICU at the Royal Brompton.
...
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/irfan-halim-tributes-doctor-died-covid-frontline-b967135.html
 
https://washingtonnewspost.com/news/health/hero-surgeon-killed-by-covid-was-double-jabbed/
Hero surgeon killed by Covid was DOUBLE-JABBED
2 days agoLast Updated: November 19, 2021
Grieving widow Saila Halim said Dr Irfan Halim, 45, passed away at Royal Brompton Hospital in West London on November 14 following a nine-week battle with the virus.

The doctor, who had no known health conditions, received his second vaccine in January but was struck down by the disease on September 10, six days before Britain’s booster programme was given the green-light.

As a frontline NHS worker who was vaccinated nine months ago, he would have been at the front of the queue for the crucial third shot when they were rolled out on September 16.

Speaking exclusively to MailOnline, Mrs Halim said today: ‘My husband worked away from London and I’m not sure which vaccine he received but he was double vaccinated and always wore full PPE when he was on the wards.’

Fighting back the tears, she continued: ‘He never said anything about getting the booster and I don’t think he got one.

‘It makes you question the efficiency of the vaccine but now is not the time for me to think about these things because I’m so heartbroken.

‘It’s a double tragedy for the family and we are in too much pain to consider anything else.’..
 
What's behind the rapid disappearance of the delta variant in Japan? It could be self-extinction.

BY OSAMU TSUKIMORI
STAFF WRITER
Nov 18, 2021

Why did Japan’s fifth and biggest wave of the coronavirus pandemic, driven by the supercontagious delta variant, suddenly come to an abrupt end following a seemingly relentless rise in new infections? And what made Japan different from other developed countries that are now seeing a fresh surge in new cases?
...
Many scholars point to a variety of possibilities, which include one of the highest vaccination rates among advanced countries with 75.7% of residents fully vaccinated as of Wednesday. Other potential factors are the social distancing and mask-wearing measures that are now deeply embedded in Japanese society.

But the chief reason may be related to the genetic changes that the coronavirus undergoes during reproduction, at a pace of around two mutations per month. According to a potentially revolutionary theory proposed by Ituro Inoue, a professor at the National Institute of Genetics, the delta variant in Japan accumulated too many mutations to the virus’s error-correcting, non-structural protein called nsp14. As a result, the virus struggled to repair the errors in time, ultimately leading to “self-destruction.”
...
“We were literally shocked to see the findings,” Inoue told The Japan Times. “The delta variant in Japan was highly transmissible and keeping other variants out. But as the mutations piled up, we believe it eventually became a faulty virus and it was unable to make copies of itself. Considering that the cases haven’t been increasing, we think that at some point during such mutations it headed straight toward its natural extinction.”

Inoue’s theory, while innovative, would lend support to the mysterious disappearance of the delta variant’s spread in Japan. While much of the rest of the world with similarly high vaccination rates, including South Korea and some Western countries, are suffering from record waves of new infections, Japan appears to be a peculiar case in that COVID-19 cases have remained subdued despite trains and restaurants filling up following the end of the most recent state of emergency.
...
A similar natural extinction of the coronavirus could possibly be observed overseas, Inoue says, adding that detecting that would be difficult as no other country seems to have accumulated as many mutations in the virus’s nsp14 as in Japan, though similar mutations at the A394V site have been discovered in at least 24 countries.

But Inoue’s theory may also help explain why the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) ended abruptly in 2003. An in vitro experiment in which the researchers caused mutations in nsp14 in the virus that causes SARS led to findings that the virus eventually could not replicate itself as mutations piled up.

“No genome data exists, so it’s just a hypothesis, but because it has disappeared, it will never see the light of day again,” he said.

So what are the chances that we could see a similar natural extinction overseas of the COVID-19-causing SARS-CoV-2 virus?

“The chances are not zero, but that seems too optimistic for now as we’re unable to get hold of any such evidence, though we have looked at various data of other countries,” he said.
...
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/11/18/national/delta-variant-self-destruction-theory/
 
I fail to see the logic in Ituro Inoue's hypothesis. Single stranded RNA viruses seem to have an upper limit of about 25k bases beyond which the accumulation of copy errors becomes unsustainable. Large genomes either need to be double stranded or require a proof reading mechanism. Corona viruses are +ssRNA virus of about 30k and use an exonuclease bound to the RdRp which corrects some of the errors bringing output back within the sustainable mutation threshold. Changes in the exonuclease, which reduce its efficiency, will make more variants but will also make too many that are not replication competent and the phenotype will be out competed by the wild type and other strains will fill the niche. Natural selection will allow the most efficiently reproducing phenotype to increase in the susceptible host population, if this is not a delta strain it will be something else. An overall reduction in cases is going to be due a failure of any strain to transmit between host and here an increased difficultly in transmitting, or sustaining an infection, due to previous infection or vaccination plus any social distancing and masking measures.
 
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