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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

I just noticed the big increase in US-deaths age 25-43 while checking
for COVID-mortality.
I didn't notice this before, nor did I hear it in the news.

so I searched and found a CDC-article :
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/n...1/20210714.htm


USA, yearly deaths age 25-43 from circulatory causes, respiratory causes,
unnatural causes,suicide,homicide,motor vehicle accident, drug-poisening

Code: 
cir,18553,  18240,  18385,  18549,  18651,  17814,  17596,  17294,  16602,  16155,  15916,  15530,  15686,  15433,  15339,  15569,  15755,  16047,  16364,  16239,  16290
res, 3325,   3373,   3252,   3219,   3153,   2887,   2936,   2864,   2732,   2854,   3798,   2712,   2978,   2705,   2999,   3410,   2778,   3155,   2990,   3145,   3306
unn,46412,  46074,  48970,  49080,  48804,  48653,  49854,  51432,  51416,  49560,  47613,  47955,  49825,  50621,  50910,  52941,  58683,  67951,  72806,  71539,  73195
sui,10952,  10699,  11021,  11147,  10925,  10944,  10758,  10808,  11195,  11191,  11214,  11556,  12011,  12252,  12179,  12557,  13077,  13680,  14575,  14887,  14882
hom, 9289,   9126,   9441,   9814,   9776,   9436,   9545,   9569,   9671,   9145,   8500,   8263,   8261,   8572,   8340,   8260,   9449,  10791,  11023,  10662,  10951
mva,14289,  14336,  14431,  14352,  14032,  13973,  14096,  14156,  13463,  12338,  11018,  10580,  10423,  10948,  10601,  10589,  11400,  12469,  12434,  12462,  12420
X4-, 6407,   6560,   7001,   8472,   8958,   9357,  10291,  11879,  12405,  12550,  12750,  13362,  14855,  14834,  15759,  17506,  20757,  26710,  30428,  29171,  30535
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     1999,   2000,   2001,   2002,   2003,   2004,   2005,   2006,   2007,   2008,   2009,   2010,   2011,   2012,   2013,   2014,   2015,   2016,   2017,   2018,   2019

suicide, homicide slightly increasing, but mainly X42,X44 (ICD10)

X42 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to narcotics and psychodysleptics
[hallucinogens], not elsewhere classified
X44 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to other and unspecified drugs,
medicaments and biological substances

http://magictour.free.fr/USAMO1.GIF

worse than COVID for this agegroup, almost as bad as AIDS in the 1990s
 
I see it too. But what is weird, other Delta with N501Y have not taken off at all, see for example Turkey. Are there additional changes specific to this variant other than N501Y, especially in the german sequences?
 
this thread :
https://twitter.com/UseBy2022/status/1456717168024883201

------------------------------------------
ORF1a,A1306S,P2046L,P2287S,V2930L,T3255I,T3646A
ORF1b,P314L,G662S,P1000L,A1918V,A2513S
S,T19R,E156-,F157-,R158G,L452R,T478K,N501Y,D614G,D950N
ORF3a,S26L,I62T
M,I82T
ORF6,I17F
ORF7a,V82A,T120I
ORF7b,T40I
ORF8,D119-,F120-
N:D63G,R203M,D377Y
ORF9b,T60A

49 nucleotide-mutations
33 changes

hCoV-19/Germany/TH-RKI-I-296054/2021-10-21
Thuringia
Limbach-MVZ Gemeinschaftslabor Suhll
 
It disappears. I don't know why . Tweets are being deleted. And I can't find anything on the web.
RKI should make a statement
Some of the experts should comment.
And, of course, we need a public database to hold the sequences, as cog_uk , not just GISAID
 
why so many deaths in Lithuania, with 64% vaxed, as in Germany ? Malaysia had a wave with 70%vaxed
Latvia
http://magictour.free.fr/e-1107.GIF
----------------------
Waterford, Ireland > 99% vaxd still worst region in Ireland
----------------------
we always have these waves and it goes down after 5-10 weeks (must be because of immunity)
but we can't achieve this sort of immunity by vaccination ?!
How many people are involved in this wave-goes-down-immunity ? Maybe lots of
undetected small asymptomatic infections ?!?
 
I don't know that we can say for sure it is solely due to immunity. The public health response of asking or mandating policies to control the spread during outbreaks, and the individuals choosing to stop socializing when they see rates climb have to play some kind of role as well.
 
gsgs said:
It disappears. I don't know why . Tweets are being deleted. And I can't find anything on the web.
RKI should make a statement
Some of the experts should comment.
And, of course, we need a public database to hold the sequences, as cog_uk , not just GISAID
Click to expand...

I just checked, just for N501Y in Germany and you do see a 2% peak. But last N501Y sequence is of october 25. Did you see the dates of the delta with N501Y? Looks like the sequences were completely deleted (for double checking ?). Pity i did not make a screenshot, but I think the sequences were more recent than oct 25. Do you have a screenshot ?
 
Toaster2 said:
I just checked, just for N501Y in Germany and you do see a 2% peak. But last N501Y sequence is of october 25. Did you see the dates of the delta with N501Y? Looks like the sequences were completely deleted (for double checking ?). Pity i did not make a screenshot, but I think the sequences were more recent than oct 25. Do you have a screenshot

See replies i made (as Yost) in this thread: https://twitter.com/OliverTheUnique/status/1458422988555030528?s=09

Seems Germany has 2% N501Y linked to Delta-specific mutations. But <1% N501Y in Delta. There was some discussion in one of the threads on the 681 mutation being absent in appr 50% of the emerging N501Y. Still relevant to follow. Last sequences are of the end of October
Click to expand...
 
And check out Sachsen :

IMG-20211110-WA0002.jpg
 
Saw this nightmare family visit to Florida on a prayer forum:

11/6 Request for prayer for a couple, the man being a church elder who got Covid in FL. Woman was feeling better but he has a kidney transplant and had been in ER for hours and released but still not better.

11/7 Woman feeling better, fever-free, but husband still weak and running 98-100 even with Tylenol. No cough. Their adult children and grandchildren fled to Alabama to isolate there and if they tested positive, would go home.
Both the older adults who are sick had 3 doses of the vaccine. The woman had Pfizer and the man with the kidney transplant had Moderna. Not sure when they had their third doses. She said in this update that she believed the illnesses would be worse if unvaccinated. She said the virus is very strong.
11/9 Updated that they had been given monoclonal antibody infusions on the 8[SUP]th[/SUP]. Woman feels much better, vulnerable husband still in bed. On the 8[SUP]th[/SUP], their niece had to go to ER due to severe back pains and spasms and was receiving the Imdevimab antibody infusion the 9[SUP]th[/SUP]. She was Covid positive, too. It was mentioned that the husband with the kidney transplant also had the severe back pain and spasms.
The last communication was that they are not getting worse, but are both still testing positive. A son is flying down to help them.
 
All best wishes for the family above.

We have stated on this site for the entire year that the vaccine is only ONE TOOL. I was very skeptical about the real life results of vaccine effectiveness playing out to be 95%. That always seemed far-fetched to me. We are at something less. Different papers say different things.

If you get the vaccine it is not "permission" to do anything you want afterwards.

PLEASE BE CAREFUL. This virus is airborne.

I don't know what else I can say. If you do not want to be infected with COVID-19, you need to take precautions to avoid it. Plain and simple.

If you are a church person, consider this:

Virtual services,
Outside events,
Events with all participants wearing a mask,
Food preparers wearing masks,
Disposable plates, utensils, cups, etc.
Vaccination for high risk persons (if only to get some fractional protection),
Staggered services times,

These are only my ideas but please take precautions, especially as we enter the cold and flu season in the northern hemisphere.

We are losing about 1,200 people now in the US DAILY. A horrible daily toll.

Please......
 
The impression I get is that the infection was acquired during a family vacation in a condo in Florida; no mass gatherings were mentioned. That's probably why the adult kids and grandkids fled the state. The niece that got so ill a day later must have been the designated caregiver. I hope the son that is coming down stays well and there is not a La Brea Tar Pit pileup of sick people in that condo, far away from home.
It's risky to travel right now getting exposed to other regional strains or even international strains in places like Florida, IMO. I think Fauci said it would be safe for vaccinated family to gather, but he probably meant locally.
I saw a new prayer request today from someone whose mother was on a ventilator and brother was in the hospital with Covid pneumonia. There was no history or location, but it is clear that something aggressive can spread among family members.
 
I've got some good news about the Florida vacationers! They are all feeling better with no fevers and the man with a kidney transplant is eating again. They responded well to the antibody infusions, and their son is there now and will drive them home on Saturday.

Moderna is just recruiting for a kidney transplant vaccine study. This case survived but obviously best to have Mabs at the ready. If something like this has to happen, FL is as good as it gets since there seems to be a good infrastructure for the Mabs.
 
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