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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

Coronaviruses closely related to the pandemic virus discovered in Japan and Cambodia

The viruses, both found in bats stored in laboratory freezers, are the first SARS-CoV-2 relatives to be found outside China.

23 NOVEMBER 2020
Smriti Mallapaty

Two lab freezers in Asia have yielded surprising discoveries. Researchers have told Nature they have found a coronavirus that is closely related to SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the pandemic, in horseshoe bats stored in a freezer in Cambodia. Meanwhile, a team in Japan has reported the discovery of another closely related coronavirus — also found in frozen bat droppings.

The viruses are the first known relatives of SARS-CoV-2 to be found outside China, which supports the World Health Organization’s search across Asia for the pandemic’s animal origin. Strong evidence suggests that SARS-CoV-2 originated in horseshoe bats, but whether it passed directly from bats to people, or through an intermediate host, remains a mystery.

The virus in Cambodia was found in two Shamel’s horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus shameli) captured in the country’s north in 2010. The virus’s genome has not yet been fully sequenced — nor its discovery published — making its full significance to the pandemic hard to ascertain.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03217-0
 
Nature journals reveal terms of landmark open-access option

24 NOVEMBER 2020

Publisher Springer Nature has announced how scientists can make their papers in its most selective titles free to read as soon as they are published — part of a long-awaited move to offer open-access publishing in the Nature family of journals.

From 2021, the publisher will charge €9,500, US$11,390 or ?8,290 to make a paper open access (OA) in Nature and 32 other journals that currently keep most of their articles behind paywalls and are financed by subscriptions.

... No other journals charge as much as €9,500 per OA paper: the highest fees elsewhere are less than $6,000 (about €5,000). Some OA advocates criticize Springer Nature’s fee as too high.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41...nnc&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=naturenews
 
20M vaccinated in USA this year, then 25-30 every month, I read.

2 doses 28 days apart and (full) immunity starts 14d after dose 2
Some weeks ago the top German vaccine official said he didn't expect significant effects from vaccination
before 2022 and 100000 vaccinations (=-= 400000 in USA ?) per day were already "challenging"
And Fauci didn't expect reduced transmission from the first vaccines, just reduced severety.
So, what's the current expectation in USA ?
 
I personally agree with the viewpoints expressed in this video..It is a Medcram discussion with Dr. Michael Mina on rapid self testing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjphzlV5DYo.

If rapid self tests were to be employed, alongside a more gradual roll out of vaccines (that would then allow more longitudinal and extensive safety testing), then this could help to bring infections rapidly under control in countries everywhere. I do not believe that vaccine alone, or tests alone would be sufficient - but a combination of public health interventions like this would do the job quite rapidly. In particular self testing may be more acceptable to those who are adamant that they will refuse any vaccine, and individuals who have strong objections to mask wearing. It also removes administrative burden from health authorities, both in terms of human and physical resources. Given these problems, this discussion is worth watching and considering. I would be interested to hear others viewpoints? What are the problems with this approach? Should epidemiologists and public health officials be pushing governments to go down this route?
 
In reply to Vibrant's comment. I linked to, and strongly advocated for, the Mina approach earlier in these threads after watching TWiV 640 and the earlier MedCram (links to both of these can be found in that post)
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...-covid-19-new-coronavirus?p=891772#post891772.

The problem in the US is there is no route to regulatory approval which is an oversight built into the system. It needs to be adopted, and shown to work in breaking transmission, in another country at which point the pressure to find a way to allow manufacture will be over whelming. The wording of the bottle neck seems to be embedded in a requirement that the test needs regulation if its results are likely to change the behaviour of the user based on the result. If it does then it needs to be 90% as sensitive as the gold standard test. My question is how do home pregnancy tests get approval, as they are nothing like as reliable as the lab based test, and they are likely to change the users behaviour based on the result. What route did they take to allow them to be sold to the public and why is this not available to this test? Also why should antigen tests be compared to rt PCR, which is a test for the presence of RNA not a test for the presence of viral antigen - apples and oranges? Mina's point is we need a test for people who can infected other people rather than one that can detect minute amounts of RNA.
 
here what he said on Nov01:
https://arzt-im-netz.de/gesundheitsblog/impfstoff-gegen-corona-fruehestens-2022/
(in German)

Corona vaccine not earlier than 2022

Professor Thomas Mertens , the chairman of the Standing Vaccination Commission
at the Robert Koch Institute
assumes that a vaccination of the entire German population
cannot be completed before 2022

Mertens calculated that it would take 150 days to vaccinate 15 million people -
but only if 100,000 people could be vaccinated every day. That pace would be
already a challenge in Mertens' view.

It doesn't matter whether you start vaccinating four weeks earlier or later. "

--------------------------------------------------------------
and since 2005 we learned here, that Germany is a major "vaccination-power", more than USA.
So, how can USA be so much faster and vaccinate 25M per month ?
That should have some significant effect for the next fall-wave.
But even then, I'd expect that >30% of USA and Europe will have caught it before fall 2021,
Probably more in Asia(except China) and South-America

===============================================
in 1976 CDC called for mass-vaccination on Feb13
FDA-approval on Sep.02
25% of the US-population (221M) was vaccinated until Dec.16
===============================================
In spite of the hurdles, the CDC estimated that from October 2009 through May 2010,
27 percent of Americans over the age of 6 months were vaccinated against H1N1
single dose , 46M vaccinated by Dec10 (starting in early Oct),
=================================================
 
Last edited:
Thanks, gsgs. It seems they have have the bar set high. Using that rapid antigen test Vibrant and JJackson discussed sounds promising. I'm sure there are some interest groups that might be threatened by these home tests, but sounds like Fauci supports them so that should help. The home pregnancy test had the support of a big public health journal.
 
the antigen tests - that's another issue. They are being used in several locations in Europe.
Most notably Slovakia, Liverpool.
Spain reports daily the antigen tests , Madrid uses them since early Oct.
>70% of their tests were antigen-tests some weeks ago, now declining to 50%
Madrid PCR,Antigen

260,1123,57057, 85726 , Spain : 679249,278005
255,1116,58738,131034
250,1109,57426,132011
245,1102,57551,127888
240,1026,62607,121665
235,1019,63583, 93501
230,1012,68562?+50000?
225,1005,115000+0
 
What I learned today: this vaccine may prevent complications. Probably does not prevent spread of the virus?

Back to normal" : probably not very soon:?
 
and is it safe in people who already have antibodies ?
We don't know yet.
The antibodies could "attack" the vaccine
 
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