sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Thanks tetano. I am glad things are better in Shenzhen.
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Discussion thread IV - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)
- Thread starter kiwibird
- Start date
gsgs
Registered User
in 1918 they in USA they had the "weekly health index" , which reported weekly deaths in major US-cities.
Here is a summary of the 12 main weeks : https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1362461/
Here is a list of NPIs for the cities, how it went, and an analysis : http://magictour.free.fr/1918c2.pdf
Conclusion : no matter what you do, but do it early
(or such ?) . Reminds me to the recent conclusion, that R0 in Germany fell _before_ the lockdown on Mar22 and then stayed low.
But mobility as shown by Apple/Google had decreased from Mar09-Mar22 .
So, maybe it's just the fear in the population of the coming wave which already changes their behaviour in a significant way ?!?.
-------------------------------------------------------------
they also had the weekly "public health reports", which listed notifiable diseases, other health statistics
and health articles
available here : 1887-1951 weekly , then monthly
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/journals/333/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/journals/333/
Here is a summary of the 12 main weeks : https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1362461/
Here is a list of NPIs for the cities, how it went, and an analysis : http://magictour.free.fr/1918c2.pdf
Conclusion : no matter what you do, but do it early
(or such ?) . Reminds me to the recent conclusion, that R0 in Germany fell _before_ the lockdown on Mar22 and then stayed low.
But mobility as shown by Apple/Google had decreased from Mar09-Mar22 .
So, maybe it's just the fear in the population of the coming wave which already changes their behaviour in a significant way ?!?.
-------------------------------------------------------------
they also had the weekly "public health reports", which listed notifiable diseases, other health statistics
and health articles
available here : 1887-1951 weekly , then monthly
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/journals/333/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/journals/333/
bertrand789
Well-known member
Dans un tel contexte, j'ai aim?, ce matin, ce brin de po?sie dans ce monde de brutes:
https://compilhistoire.pagesperso-or...remiermai.html
d?sormais, c'est juste ceci :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lily_of_the_valley
je ne suis pas s?r que cela soit un progr?s
ce message peut, bien s?r, ?tre supprim?: j'ai eu , juste envie de l'?crire ...
https://compilhistoire.pagesperso-or...remiermai.html
d?sormais, c'est juste ceci :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lily_of_the_valley
je ne suis pas s?r que cela soit un progr?s
ce message peut, bien s?r, ?tre supprim?: j'ai eu , juste envie de l'?crire ...
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGcl7hNRbBQ
There is a doctor in the Seattle area who has a weekly radio show. His wife is Chinese and was visiting China with their 7-yr-old daughter over the Christmas holidays. They traveled all over the country, participating in a marathon with some 38,000 racers. A couple of days after they got back on January 7[SUP]th[/SUP], his wife came down with a mild cough for a couple of days. Then 10-14 days after that, he became much sicker for 3-4 days. He is 30 years older than his wife – about 70. Their daughter never got ill. He said it was the classic COVID-19 presentation.
He thinks China knew they were going down and made sure the rest of the world went down with them. He also thinks it’s very possible this was a research related accident. I think he said there were a couple of bat researchers sickened a couple of months before the outbreak. He calls this the CCP virus and said it is fine with him if people blame China. Both he and his wife aren’t fans of communist regimes.
Treyfish
Moderator
“A Chinese state media outlet has released an animated video using Lego pieces to mock the United States' coronavirus response and the Trump Administration's claims of an initial Chinese COVID-19 coverup.”
:tiphat:https://amp.abc.net.au/article/12204836
:tiphat:https://amp.abc.net.au/article/12204836
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
?
7s
Again, condolences to everyone who is suffering.
If your area is opening up, you are not "off the hook".
Remember, we said early "only you can protect you"... wear a mask, physical distance, hand sani.
For good psyche: dogs & chocolate.
Live your life while living it safe.
@FluTrackers
?
7s
Again, condolences to everyone who is suffering.
If your area is opening up, you are not "off the hook".
Remember, we said early "only you can protect you"... wear a mask, physical distance, hand sani.
For good psyche: dogs & chocolate.
Live your life while living it safe.
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
A tribute lunch for a wonderful elder in my village shortly before she died hosted by family & friends to tell her how she was loved by everyone-while she was still alive.
To all the Angels who have left us in this pandemic -
We will never forget you.
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Yup....European Union wants to know what happened.....there will be an official inquiry....
Speaking to CNBC, Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the EU’s executive arm, said she would like to see China work together with her organization, and others, to get to the bottom of exactly how it emerged.
“I think this is for all of us important, I mean for the whole world it is important. You never know when the next virus is starting, so we all want for the next time, we have learned our lesson and we’ve established a system of early warning that really functions and the whole world has to contribute to that,” she told Geoff Cutmore in an exclusive interview Thursday.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/coro...to-origin.html
flatlander
Member
So I am wondering if anyone has seen any of the additional data that was suppose to come out of China. If you have been monitoring WHO they said back in Feb. that serum testing had begun in China and they were anticipating results in April. We are now into May and even today in the call when talking about serum testing it never came up. I have seen results from many other countries who all had spread much later than China. Anyone see any data out there yet? Did WHO get it and where is it?
Also anyone see any updates on the 200 therapeutic tests they were running there? I would have expected some movement on this but the only thing I have seen is the start of the solidarity study, which to me seemed like a do over rather than an extension of what the scientists of the world had already helped start in China.
Any direction you can point in would be great. It is very frustrating to see us seem to be no further along than we were back in Feb.
Also anyone see any updates on the 200 therapeutic tests they were running there? I would have expected some movement on this but the only thing I have seen is the start of the solidarity study, which to me seemed like a do over rather than an extension of what the scientists of the world had already helped start in China.
Any direction you can point in would be great. It is very frustrating to see us seem to be no further along than we were back in Feb.
bertrand789
Well-known member
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
Though I can't translate the audio, from translating some comments it looks very interesting:
"Thank you for this "breathing", this break full of intelligence and this necessary perspective that you offer us in the face of a spiral of anxiety and manipulated depression"
"Thank you for this "breathing", this break full of intelligence and this necessary perspective that you offer us in the face of a spiral of anxiety and manipulated depression"
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
My condolences to all who mourn Georgette. The tribute song lyrics seem to have been written just for these times.
https://genius.com/Coldplay-the-scientist-lyrics
"I was just guessing at numbers and figures
Pulling the puzzles apart
Questions of science, science and progress
Do not speak as loud as my heart"
https://genius.com/Coldplay-the-scientist-lyrics
"I was just guessing at numbers and figures
Pulling the puzzles apart
Questions of science, science and progress
Do not speak as loud as my heart"
bertrand789
Well-known member
Merci, pour lui, c'est un tr?s grand. Cette vid?o m'a ?t? transmise, par un autre, tr?s grand, qui a fait la maladie. Nous sommes ? un moment rare, et m?me tr?s rare, car ce qui est important et vrai, est accessible. Vu la masse de liens disponible il faut uniquement savoir faire le tri et en ce lieu , il y a une sacr?e collections de vraies expertes...
Flatlander
Tetano's Nature link should sort out the first part of your question. Like you I hoped we may have been seeing large scale population based age stratified results by now.
" I have seen is the start of the solidarity study, which to me seemed like a do over rather than an extension of what the scientists of the world had already helped start in China."
I think this may be a miss-understanding of the role of these trials which I think are the most important trials underway.
The WHO trials are very large scale, multi-national, multi-center, standardised protocol trials.
The scale matters because all of these drugs are already being used on a compassionate basis and if they had any profound effect that would have been obvious and widely reported. None did so we are looking for any statistically significance benefit, or adverse side effects. Significance comes from the size of the cohort.
The multi-national aspect matters because of the genetic diversity in different population and local disease prevalence. Having malaria, HIV or anything else common in your area could cause a different disease cause and anti-body response. Racial group genotypes also may matter for instance lactose intolerance in Europe (where drinking cows milk has been common for centuries) is low compared to areas where it is a new phenomenon, dark skin outside the tropics may reduce vitamin D levels etc etc.
Multi-center matters as it helps iron out the slight differences between sites which could be as simple as nurse patient ratio, ambient temperatures or air pollution levels.
The standard protocols is probably the most important feature. While all the other trials may be very well run they do not all follow exactly the same protocols so you can not directly compare their results. An example if Site A, B and C are all running trials on Remdesivir and A gives it at one dose early in disease progression, B at a different dose and to old high risk age groups and C to a mixed age cohort excluding any kind of co-morbidity and the results are conflicting what can you recommend for future treatments.
Tetano's Nature link should sort out the first part of your question. Like you I hoped we may have been seeing large scale population based age stratified results by now.
" I have seen is the start of the solidarity study, which to me seemed like a do over rather than an extension of what the scientists of the world had already helped start in China."
I think this may be a miss-understanding of the role of these trials which I think are the most important trials underway.
The WHO trials are very large scale, multi-national, multi-center, standardised protocol trials.
The scale matters because all of these drugs are already being used on a compassionate basis and if they had any profound effect that would have been obvious and widely reported. None did so we are looking for any statistically significance benefit, or adverse side effects. Significance comes from the size of the cohort.
The multi-national aspect matters because of the genetic diversity in different population and local disease prevalence. Having malaria, HIV or anything else common in your area could cause a different disease cause and anti-body response. Racial group genotypes also may matter for instance lactose intolerance in Europe (where drinking cows milk has been common for centuries) is low compared to areas where it is a new phenomenon, dark skin outside the tropics may reduce vitamin D levels etc etc.
Multi-center matters as it helps iron out the slight differences between sites which could be as simple as nurse patient ratio, ambient temperatures or air pollution levels.
The standard protocols is probably the most important feature. While all the other trials may be very well run they do not all follow exactly the same protocols so you can not directly compare their results. An example if Site A, B and C are all running trials on Remdesivir and A gives it at one dose early in disease progression, B at a different dose and to old high risk age groups and C to a mixed age cohort excluding any kind of co-morbidity and the results are conflicting what can you recommend for future treatments.
gsgs
Registered User
can you take these normal hepa-filters ? like these : https://www.ebay.com/itm/15-St%C3%BC...72.m2749.l2649
as replacable filters for respirators with suitable openings (styropor,adhesive tape,) or normal
masks with cutouts
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Hi everyone!
Usually every year we go on our Summer schedule. Many of our participants get out of the house for good weather activities.
This is even more important this year. What many people don't know is that many of us have been glued to this site since December 30, 2019. I know some members who literally did not sleep for the first 2 weeks of the outbreak.
Mindful of physical distancing and other local restrictions many of our participants are going to try to get some exercise and take advantage of the weather.
We will continue to update the site as usual but we may not have the data as early as we normally due. I think it is very important for our members to reconnect, as best they can, with their "regular" life.
Thank you for following us!
Usually every year we go on our Summer schedule. Many of our participants get out of the house for good weather activities.
This is even more important this year. What many people don't know is that many of us have been glued to this site since December 30, 2019. I know some members who literally did not sleep for the first 2 weeks of the outbreak.
Mindful of physical distancing and other local restrictions many of our participants are going to try to get some exercise and take advantage of the weather.
We will continue to update the site as usual but we may not have the data as early as we normally due. I think it is very important for our members to reconnect, as best they can, with their "regular" life.
Thank you for following us!
Live map of COVID-19 evidence
We provide an overview of scientific publications on COVID-19 categorized and parsed into more specific subgroups, providing quick access to specific topic-relevant publications. As a result, the map also identifies research gaps, possibly guiding further research efforts.
We update the map weekly. As of 28 April 2020 the map contains 1,321 publications categorized by topic, population, and publication type. We have screened 10,785 references retrieved in our searches. The map includes all systematic reviews, RCT’s, non-randomized studies with control groups and method papers up to 23 April 2020. For all other study designs, the map is up to date until 8 April 2020.
https://www.fhi.no/en/qk/systematic-reviews-hta/map/
We provide an overview of scientific publications on COVID-19 categorized and parsed into more specific subgroups, providing quick access to specific topic-relevant publications. As a result, the map also identifies research gaps, possibly guiding further research efforts.
We update the map weekly. As of 28 April 2020 the map contains 1,321 publications categorized by topic, population, and publication type. We have screened 10,785 references retrieved in our searches. The map includes all systematic reviews, RCT’s, non-randomized studies with control groups and method papers up to 23 April 2020. For all other study designs, the map is up to date until 8 April 2020.
https://www.fhi.no/en/qk/systematic-reviews-hta/map/
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
And again.....dismissed......this writer follows us and well....disappointing....will be interesting to see if they make an edit.
Like I said in another post, I am not taking this disrespect anymore.
Nsikan Akpan
@MoNscience
?
10h
In January, the WHO took 8 days after an initial meeting to declare a global health emergency. On Friday, I asked the director-general if the committee had any regrets over originally postponing: “The world had enough time to intervene.” -
@DrTedros
How to measure your nation’s response to coronavirus
National Geographic reviews the lessons learned from national responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.
nationalgeographic.com
3
15
31
FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
Replying to
@MoNscience
and
@DrTedros
Nice article but a small edit might be warranted. FluTrackers was the earliest public warning (in the context of your article). Check out the independent wayback machine internet archive to verify the exact timing. We are sure that you want to be accurate. https://web.archive.org/web/20200226094911/https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/china-2019-ncov/821830-china-original-2019-ncov-news-thread-weeks-1-4-december-30-2019-january-25-2020…
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@MoNscience
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@DrTedros
Our public warning dated December 30, 2019 at 11:35 pm ET. https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/china-2019-ncov/821830-china-original-2019-ncov-news-thread-weeks-1-4-december-30-2019-january-25-2020
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National Geographic
@NatGeo
?
7h
Here's how to understand the key differences in countries' coronavirus responses. What worked? What didn't?
How to measure your nation’s response to coronavirus
National Geographic reviews the lessons learned from national responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.
nationalgeographic.com
14
200
532
FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
Replying to
@NatGeo
Nice article but a small edit might be warranted. FluTrackers was the earliest public warning (in the context of your article). Check out the independent wayback machine internet archive to verify the exact timing. We are sure that you want to be accurate. https://web.archive.org/web/20200226094911/https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/china-2019-ncov/821830-china-original-2019-ncov-news-thread-weeks-1-4-december-30-2019-january-25-2020…
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Our public warning dated December 30, 2019 at 11:35 pm ET. https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/china-2019-ncov/821830-china-original-2019-ncov-news-thread-weeks-1-4-december-30-2019-january-25-2020
Like I said in another post, I am not taking this disrespect anymore.
Nsikan Akpan
@MoNscience
?
10h
In January, the WHO took 8 days after an initial meeting to declare a global health emergency. On Friday, I asked the director-general if the committee had any regrets over originally postponing: “The world had enough time to intervene.” -
@DrTedros
How to measure your nation’s response to coronavirus
National Geographic reviews the lessons learned from national responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.
nationalgeographic.com
3
15
31
FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
Replying to
@MoNscience
and
@DrTedros
Nice article but a small edit might be warranted. FluTrackers was the earliest public warning (in the context of your article). Check out the independent wayback machine internet archive to verify the exact timing. We are sure that you want to be accurate. https://web.archive.org/web/20200226094911/https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/china-2019-ncov/821830-china-original-2019-ncov-news-thread-weeks-1-4-december-30-2019-january-25-2020…
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Our public warning dated December 30, 2019 at 11:35 pm ET. https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/china-2019-ncov/821830-china-original-2019-ncov-news-thread-weeks-1-4-december-30-2019-january-25-2020
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National Geographic
@NatGeo
?
7h
Here's how to understand the key differences in countries' coronavirus responses. What worked? What didn't?
How to measure your nation’s response to coronavirus
National Geographic reviews the lessons learned from national responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.
nationalgeographic.com
14
200
532
FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
Replying to
@NatGeo
Nice article but a small edit might be warranted. FluTrackers was the earliest public warning (in the context of your article). Check out the independent wayback machine internet archive to verify the exact timing. We are sure that you want to be accurate. https://web.archive.org/web/20200226094911/https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/china-2019-ncov/821830-china-original-2019-ncov-news-thread-weeks-1-4-december-30-2019-january-25-2020…
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Our public warning dated December 30, 2019 at 11:35 pm ET. https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/china-2019-ncov/821830-china-original-2019-ncov-news-thread-weeks-1-4-december-30-2019-january-25-2020
bertrand789
Well-known member
Des publications chinoises:
si j'ai pos? des questions avec courtoisie, il semble normal de v?rifier, ce qui a et est fait par les autorit?s scientifiques de ce pays. Il me semble que le lieu neutre de communication est ceci :
http://medjournals.cn/COVID-19/index...B4F158F45D1CEC
issu de ceci:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...irus-2019-ncov
on y trouve ce jour :
http://rs.yiigle.com/yufabiao/1189815.htm
ce me semblerait bien que ces deux points soient ?clair?s :
- Utilisez la rhubarbe crue (15-20 g plus 150 ml d'eau bouillie)
- la d?coction de Dachengqi par voie orale ou lavement.
et que les pros , notamment europ?ens, de ce type de sujets, se mouillent un peu
la m?decine chinoise traditionnelle est abord?e:
Sharon, je souhaiterai , que ce message soit transf?r?, mais que cela soit ?clair? comme il se doit, car cela n'a jamais ?t? simple et ne le sera jamais d'user de produit qui n'ont pas le statut de m?dicament, qui seul , pour moi, ? ce stade, ? un b?n?fice risque cr?dible. Je souhaiterai , vu que ces th?rapeutiques sont ?voqu?es dans le cadre de l'O.M.S, une pr?sentation du su reconnu par les non chinois, donc au niveau de l'O.M.S, pour commencer...
si j'ai pos? des questions avec courtoisie, il semble normal de v?rifier, ce qui a et est fait par les autorit?s scientifiques de ce pays. Il me semble que le lieu neutre de communication est ceci :
http://medjournals.cn/COVID-19/index...B4F158F45D1CEC
issu de ceci:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...irus-2019-ncov
on y trouve ce jour :
3.3.4 Protection de la fonction intestinale
Les pr?biotiques peuvent ?tre utilis?s pour am?liorer la micro?cologie intestinale des patients. Utilisez la rhubarbe crue (15-20 g plus 150 ml d'eau bouillie) ou la d?coction de Dachengqi par voie orale ou lavement.http://rs.yiigle.com/yufabiao/1189815.htm
ce me semblerait bien que ces deux points soient ?clair?s :
- Utilisez la rhubarbe crue (15-20 g plus 150 ml d'eau bouillie)
- la d?coction de Dachengqi par voie orale ou lavement.
et que les pros , notamment europ?ens, de ce type de sujets, se mouillent un peu
la m?decine chinoise traditionnelle est abord?e:
3.6 Int?gration des traitements de m?decine traditionnelle chinoise et occidentale
La combinaison de la m?decine traditionnelle chinoise et occidentale dans le traitement de la nouvelle pneumonie ? coronavirus peut am?liorer l'effet synergique. Pour les patients adultes, le traitement par diff?renciation des syndromes avec la m?decine traditionnelle chinoise peut am?liorer la condition. Pour les patients l?gers, le syndrome du syndrome vent-chaleur sera trait? par l'addition et la soustraction de Yinqiaosan; les sympt?mes gastro-intestinaux sont les principaux sympt?mes, et le syndrome d'humidit? et d'humidit? sera trait? avec la d?coction Huopiaoxialing et la d?coction Sanren. Pour les patients ordinaires, ceux qui souffrent du syndrome de la chaleur et de la stagnation des poumons devraient recevoir la m?decine traditionnelle chinoise Maxingshigan Decoction; Pour ceux souffrant d'humidit?, de d?pression et de poumons, en donnant la m?decine chinoise Dayuanyin, Le d?sinfectant Ganlu et d'autres traitements peuvent contr?ler la progression de la maladie dans une certaine mesure et r?duire l'apparition de type ordinaire ? lourd; L'anxi?t? et l'insomnie, etc., compte tenu du traitement d'addition et de soustraction de la m?decine chinoise Xiaochaihu Tang, peuvent consid?rablement am?liorer les sympt?mes. Pour les patients s?v?res, si la fi?vre ne recule pas, m?me une fi?vre ?lev?e, une distension abdominale, une fermeture f?cale s?che, et ceux qui sont toxiques pour la chaleur et les poumons ferm?s, donnez la m?decine chinoise Dachengqi d?coction lavement pour soulager la chaleur et soulager la fi?vre ou r?duire la fi?vre. La d?coction de Baihu, la d?coction de Shengjiangsan et de Xuanbai Chengqi ont ?t? ajout?es ou supprim?es pour ?liminer la maladie et r?duire la fr?quence des maladies graves ? graves. Les enfants ordinaires souffrant d'humidit? et de chaleur et les poumons ferm?s re?oivent l'addition et la soustraction de Maxing Shigan Decoction et Sanren Decoction; ceux qui ont un grillage mod?r? et une chaleur humide accompagn?e de distension abdominale, de mousse, de vomissements graisseux, etc., ne peuvent pas ?tre ajout?s ou soustraits. Les patients s?v?res atteints d'une maladie pulmonaire ferm?e (actuellement rare dans le pays) peuvent se r?f?rer ? l'addition et ? la soustraction Xuanbai Chengqi Decoction et Ganlu Disinfectant Dan; si la chaleur toxique est vigoureuse, le qi intestinal n'est pas clair et la nourriture et les m?dicaments ne sont pas suffisants, un lavement de d?coction de rhubarbe d'urgence ? court terme. ne peut pas ?tre ajout? ou soustrait. Les patients s?v?res atteints d'une maladie pulmonaire ferm?e (actuellement rare dans le pays) peuvent se r?f?rer ? l'addition et ? la soustraction Xuanbai Chengqi Decoction et Ganlu Disinfectant Dan; si la chaleur toxique est vigoureuse, le qi intestinal n'est pas clair et la nourriture et les m?dicaments ne sont pas suffisants, un lavement de d?coction de rhubarbe d'urgence ? court terme. ne peut pas ?tre ajout? ou soustrait. Les patients s?v?res atteints d'une maladie pulmonaire ferm?e (actuellement rare dans le pays) peuvent se r?f?rer ? l'addition et ? la soustraction Xuanbai Chengqi Decoction et Ganlu Disinfectant Dan; si la chaleur toxique est vigoureuse, le qi intestinal n'est pas clair et la nourriture et les m?dicaments ne sont pas suffisants, un lavement de d?coction de rhubarbe d'urgence ? court terme. Sharon, je souhaiterai , que ce message soit transf?r?, mais que cela soit ?clair? comme il se doit, car cela n'a jamais ?t? simple et ne le sera jamais d'user de produit qui n'ont pas le statut de m?dicament, qui seul , pour moi, ? ce stade, ? un b?n?fice risque cr?dible. Je souhaiterai , vu que ces th?rapeutiques sont ?voqu?es dans le cadre de l'O.M.S, une pr?sentation du su reconnu par les non chinois, donc au niveau de l'O.M.S, pour commencer...