Discussion thread: Is the United States Ready for a Pandemic? Answered: No - March 26, 2020

[Laidback Al]

Is the United States ready for a pandemic?

Today, Acting Deputy Secretary Ken Cuccinelli of Homeland Security requested help on Twitter using the Johns Hopkins University Center for System Science and Engineering worldwide map of coronavirus outbreak.

Story: HOMELAND SECURITY DEPUTY SECRETARY CUCCINELLI CRITICIZED FOR ASKING TWITTER WHERE TO FIND CORONAVIRUS INFORMATION

As noted in the article several people who responded to the tweet were astounded at the lack of sophistication of Mr. Cuccinelli regarding official national and international agencies tasked with compiling outbreak data and tracking novel infectious diseases.

While the JHUCSSE team has been tracking COVID-19 outbreak since about the 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] of January, they have gone through several revisions of their spreadsheet data and much of their early numbers contain discrepancies compared with those posted by public health officials.

While the JHUCSSE map contain eye catching graphics, it provides little significant data to help understand the nature and geographic distribution of the outbreak. More informative and important graphics can be found in the situation reports provided by the WHO. The WHO epidemic graphs can help determine whether or not cases and deaths are increasing or declining.

If US government officials are relying on graphs that only show cumulative increases in COVID-19 cases, US citizens should be genuinely concerned about how well prepared the government is to handle this potential pandemic.

 

[QuadrupleM]

It might be time to put the gif of Elmo with his hands up and fire burning behind him.

There is no local testing for virus in the US. 4 day turn around time is a long time to wait.

There has been no updated guidance on who to test. Despite a level 3 travel warning about South Korea it is still only travel from China or a contact. I realize we are likely beyond containing Covid-19 but as a health care worker screening patients we would like to know when to use our precious mask resources with patients.

US leadership tweeting about a website does not inspire confidence.

Luckily I am in California with great state leadership and weekly planning meetings. But I am concerned about other areas of the US understanding what may be coming in terms of patient volume and risk to HCWs.

 

[gsgs]

the real question is, are they going to implement China-like measures, as WHO recommends, so to contain it ?
Or would they prefer to protect the economy, people's freedom, and tolerate growing outbreaks.
It's election campaigning, the candidates should tell the public about their pandemic planning
and discuss this openly.

 

[Laidback Al]

Contrary to the assurances from the administration the coronavirus is not under control in either the United States (US) or elsewhere around the world. Since Monday, a total of ten countries have reported their first coronavirus cases, Brazil, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Georgia, Greece, North Macedonia, Norway, Romania, Algeria, Switzerland, Afghanistan, and Iraq.

Over the years there has been a hollowing out a US federal agencies and institutions that have been tasked with preparing for and managing pandemics in the US. It is a height of hubris that the richest country in the world believes that throwing billion’s of dollars against the problem will make it go away. The billions of dollars that are being allocated for fighting the coronavirus today cannot buy back the precious time that could have been used to better prepare the United States for a pandemic.

That money could have been used to develop a unified strategic program among various federal agencies to provide a fact-based information stream as a pandemic develops. It could have provided funding to insulate critical supply chains relating to PPE’s (personal protective equipment), including masks, gowns, gloves, and an adequate supply of medications. That money could have been used to train local doctors in handling pandemic patients or it could have been used to develop and train rapid response teams that could assist state and local health departments with managing small local outbreaks. Finally, the money could’ve been used to develop a post-pandemic economic recovery plan. It is too late now.

Now, we are not even sure we will be getting accurate information from US public health officials, so there is little hope that the government has a coherent recovery strategy in place for when this pandemic is over.

What can you do?

First, do not panic. This is not an overnight catastrophe. The disease is slowly growing across the country and there is still time to get prepared. Follow your local news sources to find out what is happening. The best sources of information will be your state and local public health officials. Heed any of their recommendations. Avoid being swayed by events that are happening a half a continent away.

Second, take stock of you and your family’s situation and consider how and what you can do to be prepared. Do not participate in the buying frenzy for masks, unproven medications, etc. that is currently sweeping the country. Manage your resources carefully, because everyone needs to be prepared to continue with life after the pandemic.

 

[sharon sanders]

I agree.

Follow your local news.

Also, Nigeria, New Zealand, Mexico reported their first cases this week.

 

[Readymom]

What can you do?

First, do not panic. This is not an overnight catastrophe. The disease is slowly growing across the country and there is still time to get prepared. Follow your local news sources to find out what is happening. The best sources of information will be your state and local public health officials. Heed any of their recommendations. Avoid being swayed by events that are happening a half a continent away.

Second, take stock of you and your family’s situation and consider how and what you can do to be prepared. Do not participate in the buying frenzy for masks, unproven medications, etc. that is currently sweeping the country. Manage your resources carefully, because everyone needs to be prepared to continue with life after the pandemic.

Can I have permission to share this publicly?? Thanks!

 

[Laidback Al]

Can I have permission to share this publicly?? Thanks!

Absolutely, we are all in this together.

 

[Shiloh]

While stocking up, I also suggest to people to consider buying an item or two to contribute to the local foodbank.

 

[Laidback Al]

While stocking up, I also suggest to people to consider buying an item or two to contribute to the local foodbank.

This is an excellent suggestion. We know that poverty is on the rise in the United States, with growing numbers of the “working poor”. We don’t know how this pandemic is going to turn out, but it is a good bet that poor people and elderly people will be disproportionately affected.

 

[sharon sanders]

Also just now. Iceland.

 

[Gert van der Hoek]

I don't know what to think when I read this:

New York Is Making Its Own Coronavirus Test After The CDC’s Test Has Repeatedly Failed

 

[Laidback Al]

The US government is probably not ready

Two months into the COVID-19 pandemic, the US government has failed to provide and implement a coherent pandemic response plan. Hundreds of coronavirus cases are now being reported and at least 14 deaths have occurred throughout the United States. Local public health officials are still waiting for promised test kits to determine who is infected in this country. Yet, government officials are continuing to downplay the potential seriousness of this outbreak.

In another post, I noted that the first thing any government must do in combating a pandemic is to provide accurate and truthful information about the nature and extent of local outbreaks. Mixed messages from US government officials continue to confuse the general public about this pandemic. Confusion leads to panic and anxiety. Throughout the country, panic buying of supplies has been reported. Charlatans and unscrupulous businesses are taking advantage of people’s fears and concerns. There are no cures, folk remedies, and homebrew solutions that will protect people from the coronavirus, despite that, people are desperate and are willing to purchase them.

The coronavirus outbreak is not just an economic problem, but the government continues to focus on potential economic solutions.

Larry Kudlow, chief economic advisor to the President, is continuing to dismiss the seriousness of this outbreak in the US. "We don't actually know what the magnitude of the virus is going to be," he said. "Although, frankly, so far it looks relatively contained." (link) “We really have to wait for more information almost on a day-by-day basis before we can take action,” he said. “Frankly, so far [it] looks relatively contained, and … the vast majority of Americans are not at risk for this virus." (link)

“Asked whether policymakers should take action to stimulate the economy, [President]Trump responded that the central bank should further cut its target rate, which now sits between 1 percent and 1.25 percent.

“The Fed should cut, and the Fed should stimulate,” he told reporters at the White House on Friday. “Because other countries are doing it and it puts us at a competitive disadvantage.” (link)

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said “We do recognize a rate cut won’t reduce the rate of infection. . . It won’t fix a broken supply chain. . .” (link)

A pandemic is not an economic crisis that is measured by drops in the stock market. It cannot be cured with an infusion of cash. The COVID-19 pandemic is far more than an economic crisis -- it is first and foremost a public health crisis, and a social crisis, and a psychological crisis. It is time for US government officials to seriously address all the issues surrounding the coronavirus outbreak and to pursue the best interests of the entire population.

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Bravo to the States around the country who are cancelling events due to COVID-19. Here are some, to name a few:

Austin, TX: SXSW 2020 (film and technology conference)
Miami, FL: Ultra Music Festival in Miami
Orlando, FL: HIMSS Global Health Conference and Exhibition
Washington State: numerous

Here in Kansas City, MO, the KC Auto Show, Wine fest, Big 12 Fan Fest, Snake Saturday Parade, St Pat's Day Parade (all expected to draw large crowds) STILL ON! BTW, last week Kansas City called a State of Emergency -- for their POTHOLES!

 

[Shiloh]

The way the system is structured is that the states lead the way as far as health care in their jurisdictions....the US Govt from what I understand, can only stop arrivals in the US and approve testing. The flaw was that the CDC blew it regarding test kits. But in China, when tests kits were unavailable, they used radiology signatures to screen probable cases. Hospitals could have used this information, which was available weeks ago, to screen and isolate cases. Yes, cancelling large gatherings is a proven way to slow the spread of the virus. Interestingly, this weekend, there is Rugby game to be played in Vancouver BC and 40,000 people expected...also a hockey game. Vancouver has a case of community transmission...obviously, they feel cleaning the facilities, putting hand sanitizers out cleaning buses and skytrain is enough to prevent the disease. We shall see.

 

[Laidback Al]

The way the system is structured is that the states lead the way as far as health care in their jurisdictions....the US Govt from what I understand, can only stop arrivals in the US and approve testing. . . .

It is absolutely true that state and local public health officials are responsible for local decisions regarding testing, isolation, event cancellation, etc. However, it is the US government that sets the tone for the whole county. Federal government officials are on national media misleading the public. Beyond local news reports, how often do you see local public health official providing public interviews trying to calm their local communities, it is not on national news.

Also, local public health specialist deal with a range of issues on a daily basis in their community. They are not pandemic specialists and they do not have the personnel or the resources to run pandemic scenarios and models. That is the job of the the CDC and the US government. The US government continues to fail on its pandemic messaging every single day.

 

[JimO]

At this point, I think it’s too late to slow it down much. With people being potentially contagious before showing symptoms, containment measures will always be a step behind. Also, when people refer to the “success” of the measures taken in China, they are assuming the Chinese government has released accurate information. I just don’t believe it and expect that they won’t report much on outbreaks outside Hubei Province.

 

[Shiloh]

My understanding is that the feds have sent teams to assist in various states in support of local health departments. Also, various states have experience in contact tracing given that there have been outbreaks of measles, mumps, and whooping cough over the last few years. No system is perfect. For sure, mistakes have been made....history will judge how bad those mistakes were. It's still early days.

 

[Shiloh]

One slide in a leaked presentation for US hospitals reveals that they're preparing for millions of hospitalizations as the outbreak unfolds: https://www.businessinsider.com/pre...aring-for-millions-of-hospitalizations-2020-3

 

[Laidback Al]

One slide in a leaked presentation for US hospitals reveals that they're preparing for millions of hospitalizations as the outbreak unfolds: https://www.businessinsider.com/pre...aring-for-millions-of-hospitalizations-2020-3

According to statista.com, in 2017 there were only about 930,000 hospital beds in all of US. (link). These hospital beds have to be available for more than just coronavirus patients. If these estimates are true, the US will have a SEVERE shortage of hospital beds.

 

[Shiloh]

Well, so will Canada, which keeps insisting the threat is low at the moment. Likely, the same situation in many countries. China expelled non-Covid patients from hospitals...may well will happen in North America as well. Am sure, elective surgeries will be cancelled at some point. Likely people will die, who are non-Covid infected, due to delayed treatment. The world hasn't seen anything like this in 100 years. What we learn from this will be applied to the next pandemic...and that will come someday.