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Discussion thread III - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

Korea: [h=1]Kimposeo 16-Month Girl Corona 19 Confirmation… Korea's youngest infection[/h] Couple and child attend wedding after 31 confirmed

Input: '20 -02-23 22:46 edit: '20 -02-23 22:46
Translation:

In Gimpo, Gyeonggi-do, a girl who was only 16 months old was confirmed as having a new coronavirus infection (Corona 19). This girl is the youngest child in Korea who has been confirmed to date.

According to Gimpo on the 23rd, Yang, 16 months old, was positively corona19 on the second inspection of the afternoon and was transferred to Seoul National University Bundang Hospital. Earlier, the first test was negative. Ms. A's parents took Ms. A's parents and attended a relative wedding held at Queen Bell Hotel in Dong-gu, Daegu, where the 31st visitor visited. After that, both couples were confirmed.

https://translate.google.com/transl...111&wlog_tag1=mb_seoul_from_index&prev=search
 
Hi!

As everyone knows we are all volunteers. As this outbreak is expanding, more and more of our participants will be affected. Yesterday as the situation worsened in Italy I had a conversation with tetano. He posts using a moniker but he publicly revealed himself to be a full time pediatrician in Northern Italy. He has been participating here for over 10 years and is the major contributor to our scientific library. He is published and an authority in his field.

Of course, he will be doing all that he can in Italy in this outbreak. As such, he will participating here as time allows. Other participants are covering for him. You will see this happen as our families and communities must take priority.

We will stay online. But you will see different participants come and go.

We wish tetano, his family, his patients, and everyone in Italy the very best.

In fact, everyone affected by this situation has our heartfelt sympathies. We have seen the videos and read the stories. We know there is a lot of suffering. Please take care.

We are all in this together.
 
Missouriwatcher said:
Many kids in United States are reliant on food programs (such as free or reduced lunches, weekend backpacks).According to Feeding America: "Twenty-two million children receive free or reduced-price meals through the National School Lunch Program and the National School Breakfast Program...160 local food banks and then distributed to more than 450,000 children at the end of the week."

What happens if schools shut down for possibly a month or more, as they have in Vietnam, China, South Korea and Italy? Many have relied too heavily on society for basic needs.

https://www.feedingamerica.org/our-...pack-program?referrer=https://www.google.com/
Click to expand...

I attended many national Pandemic Preparedness summits/meetings for potential H5N1/Bird Flu pandemic. THIS was a discussion that was had many times. What to do for the kids relying on these supplemental meals. I don't think there ever was a clear solution. Communities will have to somehow come together and help each other.
 
sharon sanders said:
Hi!

As everyone knows we are all volunteers. As this outbreak is expanding, more and more of our participants will be affected. Yesterday as the situation worsened in Italy I had a conversation with tetano. He posts using a moniker but he publicly revealed himself to be a full time pediatrician in Northern Italy. He has been participating here for over 10 years and is the major contributor to our scientific library. He is published and an authority in his field.

Of course, he will be doing all that he can in Italy in this outbreak. As such, he will participating here as time allows. Other participants are covering for him. You will see this happen as our families and communities must take priority.

We will stay online. But you will see different participants come and go.

We wish tetano, his family, his patients, and everyone in Italy the very best.

In fact, everyone affected by this situation has our heartfelt sympathies. We have seen the videos and read the stories. We know there is a lot of suffering. Please take care.

We are all in this together.
Click to expand...

Grazie mille Tetano. In boca di lupo!
 
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Summary

Updated February 23, 2020
...
Risk Assessment

Outbreaks of novel virus infections among people are always of public health concern. The risk from these outbreaks depends on characteristics of the virus, including how well it spreads between people, the severity of resulting illness, and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccine or treatment medications). The fact that this disease has caused illness, including illness resulting in death, and sustained person-to-person spread is concerning. These factors meet two of the criteria of a pandemic. As community spread is detected in more and more countries, the world moves closer toward meeting the third criteria, worldwide spread of the new virus.

The potential public health threat posed by COVID-19 is high, both globally and to the United States.

But individual risk is dependent on exposure.
...
However, it’s important to note that current global circumstances suggest it is likely that this virus will cause a pandemic. In that case, the risk assessment would be different.

What May Happen

More cases are likely to be identified in the coming days, including more cases in the United States. It’s also likely that person-to-person spread will continue to occur, including in the United States. Widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States would translate into large numbers of people needing medical care at the same time. Schools, childcare centers, workplaces, and other places for mass gatherings may experience more absenteeism. Public health and healthcare systems may become overloaded, with elevated rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Other critical infrastructure, such as law enforcement, emergency medical services, and transportation industry may also be affected. Health care providers and hospitals may be overwhelmed. At this time, there is no vaccine to protect against COVID-19 and no medications approved to treat it. Nonpharmaceutical interventions would be the most important response strategy.
...

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...vid-19-situation-summary-cdc-february-23-2020
 
Really important link above. Obviously the CDC is watching Italy, South Korea, Japan....


Also - Michael Osterholm Inteview from 2 days ago - Friday 23, 2020:




 
sharon sanders said:
Hi!

As everyone knows we are all volunteers. As this outbreak is expanding, more and more of our participants will be affected. Yesterday as the situation worsened in Italy I had a conversation with tetano. He posts using a moniker but he publicly revealed himself to be a full time pediatrician in Northern Italy. He has been participating here for over 10 years and is the major contributor to our scientific library. He is published and an authority in his field.

Of course, he will be doing all that he can in Italy in this outbreak. As such, he will participating here as time allows. Other participants are covering for him. You will see this happen as our families and communities must take priority.

We will stay online. But you will see different participants come and go.

We wish tetano, his family, his patients, and everyone in Italy the very best.

In fact, everyone affected by this situation has our heartfelt sympathies. We have seen the videos and read the stories. We know there is a lot of suffering. Please take care.

We are all in this together.
Click to expand...

Thank you Tetano - you have been a rich and valuable source of information and good advice over the years. Anything we can do to fill any gaps while you are so busy - please let us know. Wishing you and your loved ones (and your countrymen) the very best.
 
You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus
As the virus spreads, it’s becoming evident that infected people may have mild symptoms, or none at all.
James Hamblin
10:39 AM ET

In May 1997, a three-year-old boy developed what at first seemed like the common cold. When his symptoms—sore throat, fever, and cough—persisted for six days, he was taken to the Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Hong Kong. There his cough worsened, and he began gasping for air. Despite intensive care, the boy died.

Puzzled by his rapid deterioration, doctors sent a sample of the boy’s sputum to China’s Department of Health. But the standard testing protocol couldn’t fully identify the virus that had caused the disease. The chief virologist decided to ship some of the sample to colleagues in other countries...

Read more: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/
 
If we do not see ILI come up in surveillance at the point before an outbreak begins - I think it will be clear that we are going to be dealing with a very bad/high CFR. If, on the other hand, we see ILI pick up before we actually pick up on an outbreak - will feel more comfortable that the COVID-19 CFR is lower than current projections. We are on the downward curve of flu season so an uptick in ILI would be noticeable.

Are any of you familiar with ILI surveillance in countries where outbreaks are being reported? South Korea? Italy? Japan? Recent ILI summaries may help give a preliminary picture of impact before and during outbreak events.
 
The disadvantage of the new junk plans is clear. Delays in proper diagnosis can also increase spread for all US citizens when those with little to no health insurance can’t, refuse or delay access care. US numbers could exceed countries with national health based on access & cost.
 
they'd better start consulting China what to do, how to stop it.
But USA would not admit, that they are seeking for China's help
 
curiosity said:
If we do not see ILI come up in surveillance at the point before an outbreak begins - I think it will be clear that we are going to be dealing with a very bad/high CFR. If, on the other hand, we see ILI pick up before we actually pick up on an outbreak - will feel more comfortable that the COVID-19 CFR is lower than current projections. We are on the downward curve of flu season so an uptick in ILI would be noticeable.

Are any of you familiar with ILI surveillance in countries where outbreaks are being reported? South Korea? Italy? Japan? Recent ILI summaries may help give a preliminary picture of impact before and during outbreak events.
Click to expand...

from
Shiloh - Shiloh

Shiloh
Editor, Senior Moderator
  • Join Date: Feb 2008
  • Posts: 55463
  • WHO: Covid-19 Situation Reports
February 3rd, 2020, 03:43 PM
These have been coming out daily and provide surveillance data, as well as other information . This is the latest as of February 3, 2020: https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=f7347413_2
Tags: None
Click to expand...
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...20200203-sitrep-14-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=f7347413_2

or..
http://www.health.state.nm.us/flu/weekly_reports.shtml
https://ncdc.gov.in/showfile.php?lid=280
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/diseases-conditions/fluwatch/2019-2020/week-48-november-24-30-2019.html
https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/two-more-confirmed-cases-of-novel-coronavirus-infection-in-singapore

There will be more here; https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...fic-library/surveillance-and-epidemic-control but there are tens of thousands of posts and I cannot easily see any for Iran or Korea.

I think you are looking for something more like this from the UK
UK - Week 8 reporting (to end week 7, 16 Feb) shows no statistical excess mortality. https://assets.publishing.service.go...020_report.pdf

UK Links to lists - https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...e-2019-to-2020
Click to expand...
the trouble with using this sort of data is that it lags at least two weeks behind. I hope this helps a little.
 
Dr. John Campbell says he received a direct email this morning from Iranian nationals quoting:

"Tehran situation is terrible with reports of deaths by the hour."

He added that it's from a contact in Iran and he has no way to verify that, but he knows who they are and don't believe they are lying. He also says that there's no real doubt that there's a huge outbreak in Iran.

Monday morning news
118,302 views•Feb 24, 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C-NpadSNuA
 
We have no way of knowing if this is true or not..

Source: https://iranintl.com/en/iran/exclus...guards-spymaster-rejects-holy-city-quarantine


Monday, 24 Feb 2020 17:26
Exclusive: Iran Revolutionary Guards spymaster rejects holy city quarantine

The intelligence head of Iran’s influential Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has opposed imposition of quarantine measures on the holy city of Qom where the deadly novel coronavirus started spreading across the country, informed sources told Iran International.

According to these sources, Hossein Taeb voiced his opposition to a proposal by Iran’s health minister to quarantine Qom during a meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council...
 
I have a question on Antivirals and what may be the most effective against Covid-19. Are there any studies or anectotal reports that shed some light on what is working, is not working etc. One of the problems I am encountering in my research is the incredible noise being generated by the Pharma and Investing Community. Feels like a lot of stock pumping, and not a lot of backup trail data. Not looking for medical advice - primarily looking for any summations of reportss being received, or actual studies, charts etc that may give some more information on how the Existing Antivirals that are available TODAY are stacking up against this thing. Thanks in advance.

This could also expand into any treatment cocktails that seem to be showing efficacy at various stages... antiviral, antibiotic, corticosteroid combinations at early stages for example. Which byt he way, I have seen some studoes that are questioning the use of corticosteroids. Any additional feedback on that is welcome as well. Again, NOT seeking medical advice, only reference to studies, reports, or anedoctal reports that may be compiled for review. I havae a ton already but there is so much out there and I know some wise heads in here may be able to provide more.
 
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