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Discussion thread II - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

Readymom said:
Above links are no longer working. The videos have been removed.
Click to expand...

Interesting. The first video security footage from an elevator of man falling while he waited inside. Then some time passes the elevator opened and then the view was of the parking garage. As he is walking he falls and collapses. Seems some time passes because the scene cuts to someone showing up to help him. The description said he was one of the first to die from nCov.

I've read elsewhere that Live Leak has been deleting videos regarding nCov.
 
Miami University, Health officials to give update on coronavirus Sunday
Local News
by: WDTN.com Staff
Posted: Feb 2, 2020 / 05:01 PM EST / Updated: Feb 2, 2020 /

OXFORD, Ohio (WDTN) – The Ohio Department of Health announced the organization, in partnership with Miami University, Butler County General Health, Middletown Health Department and the Hamilton City Health Department, will announce the latest information on the possible 2019-novel coronavirus cases.

A press conference is scheduled for 7 p.m. at Miami University.
https://www.wdtn.com/news/local-new...ill-issue-update-on-coronavirus-sunday-night/
 
NawtyBits said:
https://www.wdtn.com/news/local-new...ill-issue-update-on-coronavirus-sunday-night/

The Ohio Department of Health announced the organization, in partnership with Miami University, Butler County General Health, Middletown Health Department and the Hamilton City Health Department, will announce the latest information on the possible 2019-novel coronavirus cases.

A press conference is scheduled for 7 p.m. at Miami University.
Click to expand...

Last week two students returning from China showed possible coronavirus symptoms. According to Miami University, an international student who lives off-campus came to Student Health Service with flu-like symptoms Monday morning. University health staff tested the student and another student for coronavirus due to recent travel to China.

Link for live presser, I think https://www.wdtn.com/live/
 
I'm interpreting this as the individual lives upstairs in an apartment above another infected individual.

Machine Translation:
[# 内 Mongo 出现 更新 特 病例 例 #: Fever patients who have not been out of contact, live in another patient upstairs] # 新 accids live upstairs in confirmed cases # On February 2, the Inner Mongolia Health and Medical Commission notified the new type of coronavirus pneumonia Case situation. Among them, the newly confirmed case has no history of going out in this city, has not been exposed to fever patients, has not been to a farmer's market, has no history of wildlife contact, but lives upstairs in another confirmed case. Second hand video of first hand video

https://m.weibo.cn/detail/4467750573959793
 
Summary of article below:

1/20 landed in Mexico from L/A Delta 0573
1/20-1/22 Toured Mex City. Hilton and Uber transit
1/21 symptoms fever cough in the evening
1/22 landed back in L/A American Airlines 2546
Confirmed 1/25 via PCR by CDC
1/28 received confirmation in Mexco from CDC
2/1 no symptoms in contacts
*2/3/20 • Regarding the confirmed case of 2019-nCoV notified of
international way and with a visit to the CDMX,
no contacts have had symptoms of illness after
13 days of exposure. 14 days of follow-up will be completed.

All google translated.

From Mexico's Health Secretary:
https://www.gob.mx/salud/prensa/nuev...-diario-233796

Official international notification was received about the presence of a
confirmed case of 2019-nCoV with a travel record to the CDMX,
having started symptomatology hours before departure flight
from the country. For this reason, an investigation is being carried out.
epidemiological with the objective of identifying potential contacts that
could have been infected. Of the contacts so far
identified (staff of a hotel and a transport company
urban), none has developed symptoms of the disease to more than 10
days of exposure, which exceeds the average incubation time
known (6-7 days), even so, they will remain until they meet
14 days since its exposure

https://www.milenio.com/politica/cdm...ntro-historico
Tourist with coronavirus was in CdMx and toured the Historic Center; check case

The man of Chinese nationality and his family moved in Uber to and from the airport, stayed at the Hilton Hotel in the Historic Center .On January 21, he had breakfast and dinner at the hotel. All meals were at the hotel except January 21, which was in a small establishment in Mexico City. That day, the positive Chinese tourist and his family toured historical areas. He walked from the Hilton Hotel to a "historic old street", about 1 or 2 kilometers; They entered the Metropolitan Cathedral. “They entered a museum and a store, but they don't remember their names. Food during tour were tacos. The family does not remember the name of the restaurant. The appearance of symptoms in the evening ”of January 21. On January 22, they took flight AA 2546 from Mexico City to Los Angeles . To get to the air terminal they took an Uber and at the AICM they ate at a restaurant which they don't remember the name of. He developed symptoms in the country, but it was in the US where it was confirmed.

A coronavirus carrier confirmed in the United States he was in Mexico City , ate tacos, entered the Metropolitan Cathedral and he stayed at the Hilton Hotel in the Historic Center . It is the case that has merited the monitoring of the two conductors of Uber who transferred him to and from the Mexico City International Airport, where he also ate at an establishment whose name he does not remember and 240 Uber users who approached the unit. The Department of Health of the United States informed the Directorate General of Epidemiology about a positive case of a positive tourist to the coronavirus (2019-nCoV) confirmed on January 25 by the laboratory of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) , who traveled from Los Angeles, California, to Mexico City and in fact, presented symptoms before returning to the US.

The DGE suggested to health authorities throughout the country “strengthening epidemiological surveillance measures, including the follow-up of contacts for 14 days after exposure”. This is a male, whose initials are QL, of Chinese citizenship, born on January 9, 1982, who traveled from January 20 from Los Angeles to Mexico City , flight Delta Airlines 0573 and January 22 from Mexico to Los Angeles, flight American Airlines 2546. To get to the air terminal they took an Uber and at the airport they ate at a restaurant which they don't remember the name of.
 
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[h=1]Coronavirus conspiracy debunked by Wuhan researcher[/h] By Zhang Zhihao | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2020-02-02 19:29

A scientist from the Wuhan Institute of Virology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has debunked a recent conspiracy which claimed the novel coronavirus was manufactured and escaped from the institute’s most advanced biocontainment facility.

Shi Zhengli, a researcher from the institute, said on her social media on Sunday the virus was the result of "nature punishing the uncivilized habits and customs of humans", and she is willing to "bet my life that [the outbreak] has nothing to do with the lab."

Shi was the leading scientist who made the discovery the novel coronavirus can enter cells through ACE2 receptors and may have originated from bats.

Her comments came after Indian scientists recently published a non-peer reviewed paper suggesting scientists had artificially inserted genes from the HIV virus into the coronavirus, thus making it susceptible to anti-HIV treatments.

The paper was immediately panned by experts around the world and retracted from biology journal server bioRxiv on Sunday.
...
http://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/02/WS5e36b2b7a31012821727432e.ht
 
Not a recommendation or medical advice. And, it's the Sun...soooo...


HOT TODDY 'REMEDY' Coronavirus – First Brit known to catch virus ‘beat deadly flu with glass of hot whisky and honey’

He said: “'I was stunned when the doctors told me I was suffering from the virus. I thought I was going to die but I managed to beat it.

“I used the inhaler which helped control the cough and drank a hot whisky with honey until that ran out.

"I did refuse to take the antibiotics the doctors prescribed me because I didn’t want to take any medicines.”
https://www.thesun.ie/news/5056095/...eadly-flu-with-glass-of-hot-whisky-and-honey/
 
Update January 31: Modeling the Spreading Risk of 2019-nCoV
January 31, 2020

We believe the actual number of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China are likely much higher than that reported to date. Specifically, we estimate there to be around 58,000 cumulative cases of 2019-nCoV in mainland China by the end of January (as of January 31, the reported cases is close to 12,000). This estimate is in line with our previous analysis on January 25, which estimated the proportion of reported to estimated cases to be close to 10%. It is likely that part of this discrepancy is due to reporting delays

https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov-model-2/
 
hawkeye said:
Update January 31: Modeling the Spreading Risk of 2019-nCoV
January 31, 2020

We believe the actual number of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China are likely much higher than that reported to date. Specifically, we estimate there to be around 58,000 cumulative cases of 2019-nCoV in mainland China by the end of January (as of January 31, the reported cases is close to 12,000). This estimate is in line with our previous analysis on January 25, which estimated the proportion of reported to estimated cases to be close to 10%. It is likely that part of this discrepancy is due to reporting delays

https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov-model-2/
Click to expand...


The full quote from the article-
We believe the actual number of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China are likely much higher than that reported to date. Specifically, we estimate there to be around 58,000 cumulative cases of 2019-nCoV in mainland China by the end of January (as of January 31, the reported cases is close to 12,000). This estimate is in line with our previous analysis on January 25, which estimated the proportion of reported to estimated cases to be close to 10%. It is likely that part of this discrepancy is due to reporting delays. However, the substantially larger number of estimated cases suggest a majority of the cases may be mild (or asymptomatic), do not require seeking medical care, and thus are not reported. Furthermore, based on this analysis, we believe the outbreak began in November, and there were already hundreds of human cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan in early December. The estimated verses confirmed cases during January are presented in Figure 1.
Click to expand...

There is no evidence to support the assertions about when the outbreak started or the disparity between the estimated number of cases and the reported number of cases. This discussion is surprising because Lauren Gardner, the author of this article, along with two other individuals, apparently created the real time, updating map of 2019-nCoV confirmed cases reported by Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (link).

She cites a Nature Research article that she and her two colleagues had published on February 18, 2019.

Zlojutro, A, Rey, D and L Gardner*. (2019) “Optimizing border control policies for global outbreak mitigation”. Scientific Reports 9:2216. DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-38665-w (Open Source link) https://rdcu.be/bniOs

The article presents a highly technical model about comparing different monitoring strategies at key airports. The data set the authors are using is from the 2009 H1N1 outbreak in the United States. It is not clear how relevant this model is to the 2019 nCoV outbreak or estimating the number of unreported nCoV cases. It is getting more and more difficult to separate provable assertions from outright opinions.
 
China has banned funerals, burials and other related activities involving the corpses of deceased victims of the novel coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China, according to new trial regulations issued Saturday to slow the spread.

China's National Health Commission (NHC), together with the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Public Security, issued new regulations Saturday stating that all victims who succumb to the virus must be cremated at the nearest facility. "No farewell ceremonies or other funeral activities involving the corpse shall be held," the NHC announcement reads.


https://news.yahoo.com/china-says-wuhan-coronavirus-victims-035557851.html
 
Pathfinder said:
[h=1]Coronavirus conspiracy debunked by Wuhan researcher[/h] By Zhang Zhihao | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2020-02-02 19:29

A scientist from the Wuhan Institute of Virology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has debunked a recent conspiracy which claimed the novel coronavirus was manufactured and escaped from the institute’s most advanced biocontainment facility.

Shi Zhengli, a researcher from the institute, said on her social media on Sunday the virus was the result of "nature punishing the uncivilized habits and customs of humans", and she is willing to "bet my life that [the outbreak] has nothing to do with the lab."

Shi was the leading scientist who made the discovery the novel coronavirus can enter cells through ACE2 receptors and may have originated from bats.

Her comments came after Indian scientists recently published a non-peer reviewed paper suggesting scientists had artificially inserted genes from the HIV virus into the coronavirus, thus making it susceptible to anti-HIV treatments.

The paper was immediately panned by experts around the world and retracted from biology journal server bioRxiv on Sunday.
...
http://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/02/WS5e36b2b7a31012821727432e.ht
Click to expand...

As stated elsewhere on FT this whole idea is a fairly ridiculous one, and really shouldnt be given airtime... it is quite damaging. We simply do not understand the virus well enough to create this.

A thought does occur to me though: given that there is part of the HIV genome in there, it is suggesting a recombinant event at some point in its history, and would suggest to me (at least) that at some point the virus was in an HIV infected individual - we know the seafood market ISNT ground zero - patient zero predates this, and never went there, so the data suggests first cases were probably around from October... so what if the original case was an HIV infected farmer or collector of the animals, who picked up the original virus due to a weakened immune system, where it adapted and triggered this infection - possibly through re-infection of the host (intermediate) animal, which was subsequently sent to market?
 
no recombination. They (Shi Zhengli) found the bat-ancestor (96.5%-close) in 2013 RaTG13 at GISAID
 
the HIV and weapon thing makes not so much sense to me. But the lab is in Wuhan, they did work on this virus, they sequenced
the bats in Yunnan for 5 years, it's only level 4 since 2015. And there was this story with the Canadian suspended researcher,
espionage,security break, virus-shipping to Wuhan, whatever - they won't tell us.
 
Vibrant62
I doubt there has been any gene mixing with HIV. A likely explanation is that they do have a shared ancestor but millions of years ago. I posted a link yesterday in my workshop op-ed on nCoV to a long document that has a very helpful explanation on the conservation of functionally useful genetic sequences. My guess is the 'nCoV came from snakes' red herring happened for the same reason.
Link ( http://virological.org/uploads/short-url/6rBA2kTkfxLXjda60Yw2rfJASAS.pdf see pages 26-28) but it is all good and the section following is the most helpful explanation of AA side chain function and effect I have seen.
 
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